Apr 122013
 

The Toronto Maple Leafs shooting percentage has been predicted to fall for a couple of months now but it has held steady. I know that about 5-6 weeks ago the Leafs 5v5 shooting percentage was at 10.4% and I predicted it was sure to fall but as of this morning their 5v5 shooting percentage is even higher at 10.59%. Here is a graph of their 5v5 shooting percentage through out the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs 2012-13 Shooting %

Toronto Maple Leafs 2012-13 Shooting % (shots across x-axis)

League average 5v5 shooting percentage is normally just shy of 8% and the Leafs are about 33% higher than that which is incredibly high. Over the previous 5 seasons only one team has maintained a 5v5 shooting percentage above 10% over the course of an 82 game season and that was the Washington Capitals in 2009-10 when they shot at a 10.39% clip and only a handful of teams have managed to post a 5v5 shooting percentage above 9%. What the Leafs are doing is quite extraordinary even if it is a shortened season. Only 13.4% of the running 50 shot shooting percentage data points in the above graph fall below the typical league average of 8% so about 86.6% of the time they are at or above average in shooting percentage.

The only other team with a 5v5 shooting percentage above 10% this season is the Tampa Bay Lighting but they have been falling back a bit lately and in danger of falling below the 10% line as they currently sit at 10.01%.

Barring a collapse the Leafs should almost certainly end the season with a shooting percentage above 10% but it is difficult to know how much of it is luck/circumstance/randomness and how much is truly skill.

 

  2 Responses to “Toronto Maple Leafs shooting percentage is holding steady above 10%”

  1.  

    It takes ~146 games for all luck to be removed . Therefore TO performance thus far is ~ 28% SKILL & ~72% LUCK.

  2.  

    I should clarify I meant 28% of their performance is known to be skill & 72% is unknown (after 48 gms) & would need to be regressed after this season.

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