The declining value of fenwick/corsi with increased sample size

The last several days I have been playing around a fair bit with team data and analyzing various metrics for their usefulness in predicting future outcomes and I have come across some interesting observations. Specifically, with more years of data, fenwick becomes significantly less important/valuable while goals and the percentages become more important/valuable. Let me explain. Let’s first look at the year over year correlations in the various stats themselves….

February 27, 2013

A Corsi vs Goal based evaluation of Francois Beauchemin

Over the past few years I have had a few discussions with other Leaf fans about the relative merits of Francois Beauchemin. Many Leaf fans argue that he was a good 2-way defenseman who can play tough minutes and is the kind of defenseman the Leafs are still in need of. I on the other hand have never had quite as optimistic view of Beauchemin and I don’t think he…

February 21, 2013

Because we all love charts…

I have some new and exciting enhancements to for you all today. Charts, Charts, and more Charts. Before we get to the charts though, let me also mention that I have made some modifications to my HARO, HARD and HART ratings. Most of the change is to the scale and presentation and not so much to the actual formula (though there were some tweaks there too). Instead of 1.00 being…

February 18, 2013

The terrible Tyler Bozak

Ok, let me justify that headline a little before people get all over me.  He isn’t completely terrible as in he shouldn’t be in the league terrible.  He’s just a terrible first line center, and probably not a very good second or third line center either (at least not until he improves defensively). He’d be an OK 4th liner and injury fill in depth player at close to minimum salary….

February 16, 2013

Individual Stats added to

I have just added individual stats to You can access this data by conducting the normal player search but instead of selecting goals, shots, fenwick or corsi under ‘Ratings Type’ select individual stats. The individual stats included are goals, assists, first assists, points, shots, individual fenwick, individual corsi, the per 60 minutes of ice time rates for each of those stats and shooting percentage. With this you can now…

February 15, 2013

Taking a look at quality of competition

When I updated this season I added new metrics for Quality of Teammates (QoT) and Quality of Competition (Q0C). The QoC metrics are essentially the average Hockey Analysis Rating (HARO for offense, HARD for defense and HART for overall) of the opponents that the player plays against. What is interesting about these ratings, as compared to those found elsewhere, is that I split the QoC rating up into offensive…

February 11, 2013

The fall of Alex Ovechkin

The talk of the NHL these days is the fall of the Washington Capitals and Alex Ovechkin in particular. This is a pretty telling table in regards to Ovechkin’s fall in offensive production. Stats are Ovechkin’s 5v5 stats over the past 6 seasons. Season TOI G A Pts Shots Sh% TOI/G TOI/Shot 2012-13 149:14 0 1 1 18 0.00%  – 8:17 2011-12 1193:36 19 15 34 206 9.22% 62:49 5:48…

February 6, 2013

Is Phil Kessel a complementary (non core) player?

Before Leaf fans get all over me, let me say that there is nothing wrong with being a complementary player. Every team has and needs them and they can be valuable pieces of the puzzle. When I say complementary player I mean he is a player that needs others to help him get the most out of his game rather than someone who can elevate his game and those around…

February 5, 2013

Nicklas Lidstrom’s TOI Charts over last 5 seasons

Last week I introduced player TOI usage charts and one use I thought they had was to look at how a players usage changed during the downside of their careers. Today I will do just that by looking at Nicklas Lidstrom’s TOI charts over the last 5 seasons. Consider this an extension to my earlier article where I took a look at Lidstrom’s last few seasons of his career. Let’s…

February 1, 2013