Jun 292012
 

I generally have had little expectations/hope that Burke can dramatically rebuild this team into a serious playoff contender this season because of the large contracts that nobody wants on the roster, but after some thinking, I think there is way he can do it.  This is all pure speculation and hope, but don’t we all like to do that from time to time?  And as Maple Leaf fans, hope is pretty much all we have right now.

When Burke traded for James van Riemsdyk a week ago he indicated that he expects to see him playing the wing, and in particular Mikael Grabovski’s wing.  This is interesting because JVR is a left winger and the left winger for Grabovski the past couple of seasons has been Clarke MacArthur and they have seen substantial success together with Nikolai Kulemin on the right side.  I figured it meant that either MacArthur or JVR would move to the right side, but the optimist in me is hoping that Burke actually has another plan.

That plan, I hope, is signing Alexander Semin as an unrestricted free agent.  Semin is a true right wing with elite level offensive talent and as good as MacArthur has been for the Leafs, would be a significant upgrade.  As good as the MacArthur-Grabovski-Kulemin line has been at times over the past couple of seasons, a JVR-Grabovski-Semin line has the potential to be a true #1 line with 80 goal potential.

Signing Semin will not come cheap even though he is coming off a down year (in large part because he played with lower tier line mates like Marcus Johansson, Mathieu Perrault and Jason Chimera) because I think there will always be teams looking to add high end talent and there is always the KHL option for Semin.  But what it does mean is that Semin likely won’t command the mega long-term deals that Brian Burke refuses to hand out.  It is quite possible, maybe quite likely, that you could get Semin on a 4 year deal at $6M per year.  That is an increase of $2.75M over MacArthur’s salary but the benefits far out weigh the extra cost.  Not only is Semin is significantly better than MacArthur it will mean not having to play someone (MacArthur or JVR) on the wrong wing and it also means that it makes MacArthur available to trade for other assets.  In particular, a center for Kessel and Lupul.

I am not a fan of Bozak between Lupul and Kessel because he has no defensive abilities, just like Lupul and Kessel don’t.  It’s a bad combination.  I wish we had seen more of Connolly there last year.  He isn’t an ideal option either but at least has some defensive capabilities, but he is undersized too so still isn’t a great option.  So with that said, I think Burke needs to look elsewhere for the center for those two.

As far as pieces we could trade to acquire that center, well, they are actually quite abundant.  MacArthur would definitely be available after a Semin signing.  Kulemin could be traded as well and would be an attractive player to many teams.  Kadri is a trade possibility as there won’t be an immediate opening on the top 2 lines.  Franson is too but with Schenn traded would mean having to acquire another defenseman to replace him.  A package of MacArthur, Kadri and maybe a prospect or draft pick should be able to land at least a second tier first line center, or maybe even a guy like Paul Stastny.  With Duchene and Ryan O’Reilly in the mix at center for the Avalanche I can’t imagine why the Avalanche would want to keep Stastny and his $6.6M salary.  Stastny wouldn’t be ideal because he isn’t great defensively but would definitely be an upgrade on Bozak.  So, now let’s take a look at the top 2 lines if all this unfolded as I laid out.

Lupul – Stastny – Kessel

JVR – Grabovski – Semin

Ok, just reading that has me a little excited.  Both those lines are capable of producing 80+ goals and the Grabovski line in particular is a defensively capable line as well.  I have plugged some numbers into cap geek and came up with the following fictional lineup.

FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($4.250m) / Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Alexander Semin ($6.000m)
Matt Frattin ($1.200m) / Tyler Bozak ($1.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.750m)
Colby Armstrong ($3.000m) / David Steckel ($1.100m) / Mike Brown ($0.737m)
Matthew Lombardi ($3.500m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($1.325m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($2.000m)
John-Michael Liles ($3.875m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.700m)
Mike Komisarek ($4.500m) /
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Ben Scrivens ($0.700m)
BUYOUTS
Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
——
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,303,333; BONUSES: $212,500
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $896,667

You will notice no MacArthur, Kadri (both hypothetically traded to Colorado for Stastny) or Connolly.  I think Burke should be able to find a taker for Connolly as he is on just a 1 year contract with no long term salary cap ramifications (which some teams might find important with the uncertainty surrounding a new CBA) but will not get much in return.  Dallas (to replace Ribiero), Calgary (to replace Jokinen) and Pheonix (to replace Langkow) seem like possibly destinations to me.  For now I have also left Armstrong, Lombardi and Komisarek in the line  and gone with Reimer/Scrivens in goal but some moves could be made with those guys to improve the defense or goaltending situation or improve on Bozak in the #3C position.  With the moves up front, it does make trading for Luongo more unlikely, but if he gets traded to Florida, I’d be ok with acquiring Theodore to backup/mentor/support Reimer.

So Leaf fans, what do you think?  Are you hopeful something like this could happen this off season, or pessimistic that Burke can’t/won’t be able to make any significant moves to improve the team?

 

Jun 262012
 

I have had a lot of battles with the pro-corsi crowd with regards to the merits of using Corsi as a player evaluation tool.  I still get people dismissing my goal based analysis (which seems really strange since goals are what matters in hockey) so I figured I should summarize my position in one easy to understand post.  So, with that, here are 10 significant reasons why I don’t like to use a corsi based player analysis.

1.  Look at the list of players with the top on-ice shooting percentage over the past 5 seasons and compare it to the list of players with the top corsi for per 20 minutes of ice time and you’ll find that the shooting percentage list is far more representative of top offensive players than the top corsi for list.

2.  Shooting percentage is a talent and is sustainable and three year shooting percentage is as good a predictor of the following 2 seasons goal scoring rates as 3 year fenwick rates and 3 year goal rates are a far better predictor.

r^2
2007-10 FF20 vs 2010-12 GF20 0.253
2007-10 SH% vs 2010-12 GF20 0.244
2007-10 GF20 vs 2010-12 GF20 0.363

3.  I have even shown that one year GF20 is on average as good a predictor of  the following seasons GF20 as FF20 is as a predictor of the following seasons FF20 so with even just one full season of data goal rates are as good a metric of offensive talent as fenwick rate is.  Only when the sample size is less than one season (and for almost all NHL regulars we have at least a seasons worth of data) is fenwick rate a better metric for evaluating offensive talent.

4.  Although difficult to identify, I believe I have shown players can suppress opposition shooting percentage.

5.  Zone starts affect shots/corsi/fenwick stats significantly more than they affect goal stats thus the non-adjusted shot/corsi/fenwick data are less useful than the non-adjusted goal data.

6.  Although not specifically a beef with Corsi, much of the corsi analysis currently being done does not split out offensive corsi and defensive corsi but rather looks at them as a percentage or as a +/- differential.  I believe this is a poor way of doing analysis because it really is useful to know whether a player is good because he produces a lot of offense or whether the player is good because he is great defensively.  Plus, when evaluating a player offensively we need to consider the offensive capability of his team mates and the defensive capability of his opposition, not the overall ability of those players.

7.  I have a really hard time believing that 8 of the top 9 corsi % players over the past 5 seasons are Red Wing players because they are all really talented and had nothing to do with the system they play or some other non-individual talent factor.

8.  Try doing a Malkin vs Gomez fenwick/corsi comparison and now do the same with goals.  Gomez actually has a very good and very comparable fenwick rating to Malkin, but Malkin is a far better player at producing goals thanks to his far superior on-ice shooting percentage (FSh% = fenwick shooting percentage = goals / fenwick for).  Gomez every single season has a much poorer on-ice shooting percentage than Malkin and this is why Malkin is the far better player.  Fenwick/Corsi doesn’t account for this.

Malkin Gomez Malkin Gomez Malkin Gomez
Season(s) FF20 FF20 GF20 GF20 FSh% FSh%
2011-12 16.5 14.0 1.301 0.660 7.9% 4.7%
2010-11 16.1 16.4 0.949 0.534 5.9% 3.3%
2009-10 15.3 14.2 1.112 0.837 7.3% 5.9%
2008-09 12.4 16.8 1.163 0.757 9.4% 4.5%
2007-08 14.1 15.9 1.206 0.792 8.5% 5.0%
2007-11 14.7 14.7 1.171 0.745 8.0% 5.1%

 

So there you have it.  Those are some of the main reasons why I don’t use corsi in player analysis.  This isn’t to say Corsi isn’t a useful metric.  It is a useful metric in identifying which players are better at controlling play. Unfortunately, controlling play is only part of the game so if you want to conduct a complete thorough evaluation of a player, goal based stats are required.

 

Jun 232012
 

The Pittsburgh Penguins made the biggest noise at the NHL entry draft yesterday trading Jordan Staal to the Carolina Hurricanes for Brandon Sutter, the 8th overall pick which they used to draft defenseman Derrick Pouliot and defense prospect Brian Dumoulin.

Essentially this trade comes down to the Penguins trading their 3rd line center Jordan Staal, who wants to be a first or second line center and would leave as a UFA next summer to do so, for Carolina’s 3rd line center Brandon Sutter and a pair of promising defense prospects.  So, how do Jordan Staal and Brandon Sutter compare as 3rd line centers?

Offense

Sutter Staal
GF20 0.703 0.900
TMGF20 0.772 0.857
OPPGA20 0.799 0.802
HARO+ 0.876 1.081

In the above table GF20 stands for goals for per 20 minutes of 5v5 zone start adjusted ice time over the past 3 seasons, TMGF20 is the GF20 of the players team/line mates, OPPGA20 is the oppositions goals against per 20 minutes of ice time and HARO+ is my offensive rating which takes into account GF20, TMGF20 and OPPGA20.

So, even though Staal plays with better offensive teammates than Sutter does, he still manages to make them even better offensive players when they are playing with him.  Brandon Sutter on the other hand plays with significantly weaker offensive players and they become even weaker when playing with Sutter.  The end result is Staal comes out looking like a good, above average offensive player while Brandon Sutter is a fairly weak offensive player.

Defense

Sutter Staal
GA20 0.644 0.692
TMGA20 0.898 0.803
OPPGF20 0.814 0.802
HARD+ 1.223 1.120

The above table is similar to the one in under offense except it measures defensive ability by looking at the players GA20, the players teammates GA20 and the opposition players GF20 and HARD+ is my all inclusive defensive rating.

Both players come out looking like good defensive players, but the edge clearly goes to Sutter.  He plays with weaker defensive teammates, against stronger offensive competition and despite that produces a lower GA20.  In fact, evidence suggest that Brandon Sutter is one of the best defensvie forwards in the NHL.  Over the past 3 seasons he ranks 7th in GA20 and 6th in HARD+ among the 221 forwards with with 2000 minutes of 5v5 zone start adjusted ice time. This compares to Staal who ranks 91st and 86th in GA20 and HARD+.

Overall

Sutter Staal
GF% 52.2% 55.2%
TMGF% 46.2% 52.0%
OPPGF% 50.5% 50.3%
HART+ 1.050 1.074

The above table is similar to the previous two but is an overall look at the players performance.  This is done by looking at the goals for percentage (GF% = GF / [GF + GA]) for the player, his teammates, and his opponents.  Overall, Sutter has moderately worse results, but plays with significant weaker teammates and against marginally superior opponents.  In the end Jordan Staal is the better player due to his offensive abilities but Brandon Sutter might be the better fit for the Penguins since with Crosby and Malkin already centering the top 2 lines the Penguins couldn’t fully utilize Staal’s offensive abilities.  Pittsburgh’s projected line of Brandon Sutter, Tyler Kennedy and Matt Cooke may well be the best defensive line in the NHL and the 3 of them will have a combined cap hit about the same as the $6M/yr that the Penguins were prepared to give to Staal on a long term 10 year contract.  The money they save with Staal (and the trade of Zbynek Michalek) will allow them to address other more important needs such as improving on the wing (Parise?) or adding another top flight defensvie defenseman (Suter?).

From the Hurricanes point of view, the combination of Eric Staal and Jordan Staal now give them a very strong #1/#2 tandem down the middle which is one of the keys to being a successful team.  They will need to find themselves a defensive third line center now, but those guys are far easier to find than 2-way second line centers.  This is one of those deals that worked out really well for both sides, but on the whole, I think Pittsburgh did really resolving a difficult situation in a quick and efficient way.

 

Jun 152012
 

One of the top NHL unrestricted free agents this summer is the Washington Capitals Alexander Semin.  Semin  has seen his goal production drop from 40 goals in 2009-10 to 28 in 2010-11 to post-lockout low of 21 this past season and as a result peoples general view of Semin’s value has dropped significantly.  The question is, what was the reason for his drop off in offensive stats.  Is it Semin alone, or is there some other underlying reason.

Let’s take a closer look at Semin’s point totals over the past 5 seasons.

Season GP G Pts PP Pts SH Pts ES Pts ES TOI ES TOI/Pt
2011-12 77 21 54 11 0 43 1097:23 25.5 min.
2010-11 65 28 64 18 1 45 904:38 20.1 min.
2009-10 73 40 84 27 2 55 1077:22 19.6 min.
2008-09 62 34 79 30 2 47 850:02 18.1 min.
2007-08 63 26 42 20 0 22 780:48 35.5 min.

When you strip out Semin’s even strength performance you begin to realize that his point total drop off is not near as significant.  The past 4 seasons he has had 47, 55, 45 and 43 even strength points.  Now his time on ice between points increased dramatically this season but a significant part of that is likely due to his line mates.  Three seasons ago Semin’s most frequent line mates were Brooks Laich, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Ovechkin and Tomas Fleishmann ordered by time on ice together.  Two seasons ago they were Laich, Backstrom, Ovechkin and Johansson.  This past season they were Johansson, Perreault, Chimera and Ovechkin.  No offense to Johansson, Perreault and Chimera, but they have combined for just one 40 point season in their careers, and that was Johansson this past season playing with Semin.  That certainly has a little to do with Semin’s drop off.

Another way to look at Semin is to take a look at how his team mates perform when they are on the ice with Semin and when they are on the ice without Semin.  We can do this by looking at some nice bubble charts.

The above chart has GF20 without Semin across the horizontal axis and GF20 with Semin across the vertical axis.  For those new readers, GF20 is goals for (i.e. scored by team) per 20 minutes of ice time.  The color of the circle identifies the year and the size of the circle indicates relative ice time played with Semin.  The larger the circle, the more minutes they played with Semin, the smaller the circle the fewer.  Each forward who played at least 150 minutes with Semin are shown above.

In this chart circles in the upper left indicate that Semin had the greatest impact on his team mates offensive performance as upper-left circles indicate they performed relatively poorly without Semin and relative well with Semin.  Anyone above the 1:1 diagonal line (not shown) means that they had a better GF20 with Semin than without.  As you can see, over the past 3 seasons there is significant evidence that Semin has made his line mates better.  That changed slightly this past season though.  While Chimera and Perreault had better GF20′s with Semin, Johansson and Ovechkin did not.

Now lets take a look at the same chart but for GA20 (goals against per 20 minutes of ice time.

In this table bubbles in the lower right or below the 1:1 line are good as this indicates the player had a lower GA20 with Semin than without.  Except for Ovechkin in 2010-11 the majority of the bubbles are pretty close to the  1:1 line or slightly below.  This would seem to indicate that Semin is not a defensive liability which is relatively rate for quality offensive players.  Frequently producing big offensive numbers comes at a cost of defensive performance but this does not seem to be true for Semin.

The final bubble chart I will look at is goals for percentage (GF%) which is simply goals for divided by goals for plus goals against.

GF% is like GF20, the higher the number the better, so like the GF20 bubble chart, bubbles in the upper left above the 1:1 line are better, especially if they are above 50% (i.e. more goals for than against).  Except for Ovechkin and Johansson this past season and Morrison in 2009-10, all players had a better GF% with Semin than without.  This clearly points to Semin having a significant positive impact on his teams performance.

Maybe the most impressive thing I can point out about Semin is his overall 2-way performance relative to the rest of the league.  Of 125 players with 2500 5v5 zone start adjusted minutes of ice time over the past 3 season, Semin ranks 5th in GF20 (trailing only D. Sedin, H. Sedin, Toews, and Stamkos) and he ranks 13th in GA20.  It truly is a rare combination (for example, the Sedin’s rank 28 and 38 in GA20, Toews 60th and Stamkos 105th).

All that said, it does appear that Semin had a slight drop off in 5v5 offensive performance this past season but without further evidence it would probably be fair to presume that that was a somewhat minor drop off from an otherwise exceptional 4 years and certainly wouldn’t be enough to scare me away from making a significant offer to him as an unrestricted free agent.  He’d be a worthy addition to any NHL team.

 

Jun 122012
 

If you browse through the list of top NHL forwards you will find it consisting mostly of first round picks, and especially top 10 overall picks.  But when you browse through the list of top NHL defensemen far fewer of them were drafted in the first round and even fewer among the top 10.  Here is a list of all defensemen who gathered 40 points in the NHL last season.

Defenseman Points Round Position
 Erik Karlsson 78 1 15
 Brian Campbell 53 6 156
 Dustin Byfuglien 53 8 245
 Zdeno Chara 52 3 56
 Alex Pietrangelo 51 1 4
 Alexander Edler 49 3 91
 Shea Weber 49 2 49
 Dan Boyle 48 Undrafted
 Mark Streit 47 9 262
 Ryan Suter 46 1 7
 Dennis Wideman 46 8 241
 Dion Phaneuf 44 1 9
 Kevin Bieksa 44 5 151
 Kevin Shattenkirk 43 1 14
 Kimmo Timonen 43 10 250
 Keith Yandle 43 4 105
 Kris Letang 42 3 62
 Michael Del Zotto 41 1 20
 Duncan Keith 40 2 54

Of the 19 defensemen listed above, just 6 were first round picks and there were also 6 defensemen drafted in the 5th round or later as well as an undrafted defenseman.  Another method for identifying top defensemen is to look at their salary cap hits.  There are 20 NHL defensemen who have a salary cap hit of $5M or higher, only 7 of them were drafted in the first round and 4 of those were top 10 picks (including Redden who is no longer in the NHL) so pretty close to what we see above.

Comparing those numbers to NHL forwards, 14 of the top 20 point producing forwards this past season were first round picks, and 9 of them were top 3 picks.  Additionally the top 9 forwards in highest salary cap hits were all top 3 picks and all but Gaborik were top 2 picks.  Among the 23 forwards with salary cap hits above $6.5M only Pavel Datsyuk (round 6, 171st overall), Brad Richards (3, 64) and  Paul Stastny (2,44) were drafted outside the first round.  The elite forwards in the NHL are almost exclusively first round picks.

In the 14 years from 1996 through 2009 there were 420 first round draft picks with 61% of them being forwards, 32% of them being defensemen and 7% being goalies.  If you consider a standard 22 man NHL roster to have 13 forwards (59%), 7 defensemen (32%) and 2 goalies (9%), that ratio of forwards to defensemen to goalies in first round draft picks is almost exactly as expected so it isn’t like the absence of first round picks on defense leaderboards is due to a lack of defensemen being drafted in the first round.  It seems more likely that something else is going on here with the most likely explanation being that defensemen take longer to develop and thus drafting them is an even greater crap shoot than drafting forwards.

So, what do I take away from this?  Well, I think it probably means that teams should adjust their drafting strategy so that they have a bias towards drafting forwards in the first round and focus on drafting defensemen with your later round picks.

 

Jun 112012
 

Last week I took a look at the crop of 1012 NHL free agent forwards and today I will take a look at the group of free agent defensemen.  As I did with forwards, I will use my HARO+ (offensive), HARD+ (defensive) and HART+ (total/overall) rating system which takes into account on-ice performance, quality of teammates, and quality of opposition.  Generally speaking, a rating over 1.00 is an above average rating and a rating below 1.00 is a below average rating.  By that I mean, if a player had a HARO+ rating of 1.10 it would mean if he played with and against perfectly average players his team would score 10% more goals than the average team.  In this example the player would drive goal scoring to a level 10% above average.  A HARO+ rating of 0.90 would mean the player would drive (or hinder) goal scoring to a level 10% below average.  As usual, my preference is to use 3 year 5v5 zone start adjusted ratings and that is what I will do here.  Let’s first look at the group of defensemen under age 30.

HARO+, or offensive rating, is along horizontal axis and the vertical axis is HARD+, or defensive rating.  Players to the right are good offensive players and players towards the top are good defensive players.  The size of the circle is indicative of the players 5v5 zone start adjusted ice time over the past 3 teams relative to the other players in this table.  Matt Carle is the top offensive player available and is a solid defensive player as well and is quite likely the best defenseman available, though everyone believes he will re-sign in Philadelphia and may already have a deal agreed upon but can’t sign it until July 1st due to salary cap issues.  Ryan Suter doesn’t have the offense of Carle but is a better defensive player and can also play big minutes.  After those two top end big minute defensemen you get a group of lesser minute guys who seem to be quite capable defensively.  These include Lepisto, Garrison, Woywitka, Colaiacovo, O’Brien, and Gilroy.  If Garrison can repeat his offensive season of 2011-12 then he is probably the top defenseman after Suter and Carle and Colaiacovo would be right there as well.  Guys to avoid include Bruno Gervais,  Milan Jurcina, Aaron Johnson, Dylan Reese, and Dennis Wideman.  If you are looking for a guy who can play secondary offensive minutes maybe Shaone Morrisonn is your guy, but don’t expect him to contribute defensively.

Now, let’s take a look at the age 30-34 crowd.

There aren’t really any elite level offensive defensemen in this group but there are a few solid defensive and second tier defensemen.  The guy hidden at the far top right is Kent Huskins who always seems to have good offensive and excellent defensive ratings but never gets the recognition I feel he deserves.  He might be the best ‘unknown’ defenseman in the NHL.  Michal Roszival is a pretty solid 2-way defenseman as well and Sarich, Jackman, White and Zanon are solid defensive contributors.  Brad Stuart would be a decent addition as a 4-5-6 guy but I would probably avoid Hannan, Allen, Foster and Mottau.

Now for the older 35+ crowd.

There are some pretty decent veteran players here.  I have included Lidstrom for reference but as you know he has retired.  Kuba is a solid offensive defenseman but has a lot of holes in his game defensively.  Spacek is probably nearing the end of his career but may still be a useful depth defenseman at the right price.  Kubina isn’t as good defensively but probably has a little more left in the tank.  Bryce Salvador, Willie Mitchell (both still playing in the Stanley Cup finals) and Adrian Aucoin are quality defensive defensemen who can still play a solid shut down role on any team.  Staios, Eaton, Commodore, Gill are definitely in the can no longer contribute category and probably should retire while everyone else might be able to contribute as depth defensemen on a team looking to add some veteran experience.

In the interest of comparing the age groups above, here is the somewhat cluttered chart showing all defensemen colored according to age group.

When all factors are considered, the top unrestricted free agent defensemen are Matt Carle, Ryan Suter, Michal Rozsival, Carlo Colaiacovo and Barrett Jackman while older players such as Willie Mitchell, Adrian Aucoin, Cory Sarich and Bryce Salvador can contribute in defensive roles while Filip Kuba is a solid offensive defenseman but a defensive liability.

Jun 052012
 

With the Los Angeles Kings on the verge of winning the Stanley Cup and teams already making moves towards next seasons (i.e. Vokoun to Pittsburgh) it is time to take a closer look at class of unrestricted free agents.  Today I’ll take a look at the free agent forwards.

As I have mentioned previously, I feel the best and most reliable player ratings are my 5v5 zone start adjusted HARO+ offensive rating, HARD+ defensive rating and the combined HART+ rating (yes, I am biased but as far as single all inclusive ratings go, I feel these are the best) using the past 3 seasons of data.  So, with that in mind, here are how the 2012 unrestricted free agent forwards stack up.

Continue reading »

Jun 042012
 

I have a ton of information on my stats website stats.hockeyanalysis.com but one of the things I have always wanted to do is to make it more visual and I’d like to announce the first step in that process.  Thanks to google and their cool google chart api I have now added bubble charts when you do a stats search that returns no more than 30 players (more than 30 players makes the bubble charts too cluttered).  For example, if you did a search of all Maple Leaf Skaters with 500 minutes of 5v5 zone start adjusted ice time this past season you will see a nice bubble chart at the bottom plotting each players defensive rating (i.e. HARD+) along the horizontal axis and their offensive rating along the vertical axis (i.e. HARO+).  Or you can see the same thing using corsi ratings (i.e. CorHARD+ vs CorHARO+) if you are one of those people who prefer corsi based ratings.  Or, if you prefer, you can even look at multi-year goal ratings such as 3 year 5v5 zone start adjusted goal ratings for the Toronto Maple Leafs (though still not perfect, I believe 3 year goal ratings are the best indicator of a players value).

In the charts, forwards and defensemen are differentiated by different colors and the size of the bubble is indicative of the amount of time the player was on the ice for (the largest bubbles for the players with the most ice time and the smallest bubbles for the players with the least).  As always with my ratings, any value over 1.00 is above average and any rating below 1.00 is below average and these ratings take into account quality of teammates and quality of opposition and the players on-ice statistics.  This means players with bubbles to the right side of the chart are stronger defensive players and players with bubbles towards the top of the chart are stronger offensive players.  The best players are good at both and thus have their bubbles in the upper right quadrant.   Players with bubbles in the lower right quadrant are the worst performing players.  The nice thing about these charts is it gives a very easy to read visual representation of every player on a team.

I am hoping that this is just a start of things to come with more charting enhancements (and others as well) to be implemented in the future.  As always, if you have any suggestions submit a comment below or drop me a message.