May 182012
 

Over at LeafNation.com, Cam Charron did a corsi-based analysis of Colby Armstrong and came up with mixed conclusions regarding his performance over the past several seasons.

So, causes? What caused a player with pretty good possession statistics in Atlanta to completely fall off the map in the last two seasons? System? Trust? Role? A flaw in advanced statistics when players move teams? Or was it just all the injuries that made it a lot tougher on Colby than we think?

I don’t know what the answers to those questions are, but instead of trying to answer then I thought I would take a look at Armstrongs underlying goal numbers look like.  Let’s first start off with a high level view by looking at his HARO+, HARD+ and HART+ ratings.

Season Team TOI HARO+ HARD+ HART+
2011-12 Toronto 235:24 0.449 0.784 0.616
2010-11 Toronto 588:54 1.274 0.823 1.048
2009-10 Atlanta 837:31 1.118 0.948 1.033
2008-09 Atlanta 900:34 1.214 1.016 1.115
2007-08 Pit/Atl 766:46 1.160 0.812 0.986

Save for this past season, where he simply didn’t play enough to get a reliable rating, his HARO+ rating is awfully consistent and remarkably good.  Defensively he had one good season in Atlanta but generally speaking has been extremely sub-par.  The end result is his HART+ numbers are fairly solid and a net positive player overall.  Now lets look at his WOWY stats for players he has played 150 minutes with during a single season.  We’ll start with GF20 data.

Player Year w/ Armstrong wo/ Armstrong Diff
Boyce 2010-11 1.561 1.100 0.461
Versteeg 2010-11 1.148 0.537 0.611
Kane 2009-10 0.931 1.266 -0.335
Slater 2009-10 1.051 0.815 0.236
Peverley 2009-10 0.980 0.826 0.154
Reasoner 2009-10 0.628 0.656 -0.028
White 2009-10 1.049 0.782 0.267
Reasoner 2008-09 0.850 0.719 0.131
Peverley 2008-09 1.469 0.663 0.806
Christensen 2008-09 0.266 1.067 -0.801
Kozlov 2008-09 1.399 0.702 0.697
Perrin 2008-09 0.914 0.648 0.266
Kovalchuk 2008-09 1.390 0.953 0.437
Crosby 2007-08 1.699 1.125 0.574
Malkin 2007-08 1.474 1.147 0.327
Perrin 2007-08 0.944 0.634 0.310
Average 1.110 0.853 0.257

Of the 16 player seasons, there were only 3 where the player had a worse GF20 with Armstrong than without.  That’s pretty good and on average the improvement was 0.256, or about 30%.  He even seemed to make elite offensive players such as Croby, Malkin and Kovalchuk better.  It makes me wonder if Armstrong is contributing in the same way that the players I identified in my “Mixing Toughness with Skill” article did.  Armstrong himself is not an elite offensive player, but the things he does on the ice (retrieving pucks, causing distractions on the ice, drawing attention to himself, etc.) allow the skilled players to do more.

Now let’s take a look at GA20.

Player Year w/ Armstrong wo/ Armstrong Diff
Boyce 2010-11 0.739 0.880 -0.141
Versteeg 2010-11 1.059 0.832 0.227
Kane 2009-10 1.008 1.266 -0.258
Slater 2009-10 0.901 0.815 0.086
Peverley 2009-10 1.224 1.071 0.153
Reasoner 2009-10 0.733 1.006 -0.273
White 2009-10 0.525 0.956 -0.431
Reasoner 2008-09 0.464 0.790 -0.326
Peverley 2008-09 0.851 0.900 -0.049
Christensen 2008-09 0.888 1.115 -0.227
Kozlov 2008-09 0.600 1.130 -0.530
Perrin 2008-09 0.686 1.105 -0.419
Kovalchuk 2008-09 1.137 1.139 -0.002
Crosby 2007-08 0.809 0.783 0.026
Malkin 2007-08 1.053 0.918 0.135
Perrin 2007-08 0.944 0.965 -0.021
Average 0.851 0.979 -0.128

For GA20, negative numbers are good as they indicate fewer goals against.  Interestingly, in 11 of the 16 players seasons the players saw their GA20 drop when playing with Armstrong, though six of them occurred during his previously identified good defensive season of 2008-09 (he didn’t have any consistent line mates that year).  As an average, Armstrong’s teammates saw an a 0.128 drop in GA20, or about 13% which isn’t too shabby.

Now lets take a look at how this pans out in GF%.

Player Year w/ Armstrong wo/ Armstrong Diff
Boyce 2010-11 67.9% 55.6% 12.3%
Versteeg 2010-11 52.0% 39.2% 12.8%
Kane 2009-10 48.0% 50.0% -2.0%
Slater 2009-10 53.8% 50.0% 3.8%
Peverley 2009-10 44.5% 43.5% 0.9%
Reasoner 2009-10 46.1% 39.5% 6.7%
White 2009-10 66.6% 45.0% 21.7%
Reasoner 2008-09 64.7% 47.6% 17.0%
Peverley 2008-09 63.3% 42.4% 20.9%
Christensen 2008-09 23.1% 48.9% -25.8%
Kozlov 2008-09 70.0% 38.3% 31.7%
Perrin 2008-09 57.1% 37.0% 20.2%
Kovalchuk 2008-09 55.0% 45.6% 9.5%
Crosby 2007-08 67.7% 59.0% 8.8%
Malkin 2007-08 58.3% 55.5% 2.8%
Perrin 2007-08 50.0% 39.6% 10.4%
Average 55.5% 46.0% 9.5%

Only 2 times did a player have a worse GF% with Armstrong than without.  Evander Kane saw a marginal drop in 2009-10 and Erik Christensen saw a significant drop in 2008-09.  Most other players saw significant improvements in their GF%, including Kovalchuk, Crosby and Malkin so it seems that Armstrong is a net positive player.

Looking at the above numbers, I think you can firmly put me in the lets not trade away Armstrong just to dump his salary camp.  It is quite possible that the proper thing to do with Armstrong is, if he can get healthy, promote him to the second line with Grabovski and MacArthur and he might make them even better.  Interesting concept.

 

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