Dec 162011

This will be the final part of my unplanned 3-part series on who is good and who is not on the current Leafs team.  The first was about the penalty kill and the second was defensively.  Today we look at the players offensively.

The Defensemen

Player Name GFA FenF20 Ozone%
DION PHANEUF 2.4 15.22 60.2%
KEITH AULIE 2.25 14.24 61.9%
JOHN-MICHAEL LILES 2.79 13.85 46.1%
CARL GUNNARSSON 2.1 13.42 56.1%
CODY FRANSON 2.37 13.2 47.2%
JAKE GARDINER 2.25 12.79 54.3%
LUKE SCHENN 2.49 12 47.3%
MIKE KOMISAREK 2.82 10.95 40.8%

Included in the table above are goals for average (goals for per 60 min.), fenwick for per 20 minutes and offensive zone faceoff percentage which gives an indication which players start most frequently in the offensive zone.  There really isn’t too much exciting going on here.  For the most part the defensemen’s FenF20 is driven by their Ozone%.  The r^2 between FenF20 and Ozone% is 0.60 so there is a pretty tight correlation.  The only deviation is Liles who generates more offense than his Ozone% indicates he should.  The r^2 is 0.80 if we don’t include Liles.  So offensively, it seems Liles is the only defenseman who is able to drive the play significantly more than any of the others.  Looks like he might be worth keeping around.  Let’s get his name on a contract extension.

The Forwards

Player Name GF20 FenF20 Ozone%
PHIL KESSEL 3.36 14.91 51.3%
MIKHAIL GRABOVSKI 2.79 14.67 57.6%
JOFFREY LUPUL 3.6 14.5 50.2%
NAZEM KADRI 3.54 14.13 48.1%
MIKE BROWN 1.2 14.13 49.5%
TYLER BOZAK 2.97 13.97 49.3%
NIKOLAI KULEMIN 2.46 13.68 53.4%
DAVID STECKEL 1.26 13.21 48.6%
CLARKE MACARTHUR 2.97 12.92 56.3%
MATT FRATTIN 2.07 12.64 49.5%
TIM CONNOLLY 2.43 12.63 46.1%
MATTHEW LOMBARDI 2.46 11.94 54.1%
PHILIPPE DUPUIS 0 11.65 50.0%
JOEY CRABB 2.34 11.57 56.1%
JOE COLBORNE 3.33 11.29 50.0%
JAY ROSEHILL 0 10.6 43.1%
COLBY ARMSTRONG 0.87 10.41 51.3%
COLTON ORR 3.21 9.65 22.2%

Unlike the defensemen there is very little correlation between the Ozone% and FenF20 (r^2=0.0395) which means there is no rhyme or reason to where these guys are starting on the ice.  Joey Crabb can’t seem to drive offense and yet has an Ozone% of 56.1%.  The best offensive line of Kessel-Lupul-Bozak start about 50% of the time in the defensive zone while our supposed defensive specialist Philippe Dupuis starts half the time in the offensive zone.  What’s that all about coach?  Aside from those oddities it is kind of what we’d expect.  Offense is driven by the Kessel and Grabovski lines.  Generally speaking, there aren’t too many surprises in regards to how the Leafs are performing offensively.  The only surprise might be Mike Brown rating so highly.  This is pretty abnormal for him so probably just small sample size issues going on.


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