Some Thoughts on Shot Quality

There has been a fair bit of discussion going on regarding shot quality the past few weeks among the hockey stats nuts.  It started with this article about defense independent goalie rating (DIGR) in the wall street journal and several others have chimed in on the discussion so it is my turn. Gabe Desjardins has a post today talking about his hatred of shot quality and how it really isn’t a significant factor and is dominated by luck and randomness.  Now, generally speaking when others use the shot quality they are mostly talking about thinks like shot distance/location, shot type, whether

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Follow up on recent conversations…

Earlier this week I participated in several conversations elsewhere and thought I’d post a followup to a few of them. “The Bet” The other day I posted an article about on ice shooting percentage being a talent and referenced a discussion I had with Gabe Desjardin’s of Arctic Ice Hockey at MC79Hockey.com.  As part of that discussion we were negotiating a “bet” of sorts.  In it I suggested that as a group Crosby, Gaborik, Ryan, St. Louis, H. Sedin, Toews, Heatley, Tanguay, Datsyuk, Horton would have an average on-ice shooting percentage over 10% this season while Gabe suggested that the

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On-ice Shooting Percentage as a Talent

There has been an interesting discussion of on-ice shooting percentage at Tyler Dellow’s mc79hockey.com.  I have argued that we need to look at on-ice shooting percentage as a talent, and not something that just happens randomly while others have largely dismissed it.  One person in particular is Gabe Desjardin’s who has a followup post on his blog largely dismissing its importance. In his blog post Gabe first discusses Gaborik’s value just considering his on-ice shooting percentage. So are these totals 75% skill then?  Let’s do a quick check on how many goals that skill would be worth: 1000 on-ice shots/season * 2.5% above

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The Skinny on Steckel

The Leafs traded for David Steckel yesterday and while this is by no means a significant trade my first reaction to it was a very positive one.  A fourth round pick is almost worthless and Steckel is a more than useful quality defensive third/fourth line guy who can kill penalties, something the Leafs desperately need.  Upon further review of the stats, I still like the trade because of it’s low risk but my thoughts on Steckel are a little more mixed than I first believed. The Good On the surface, Steckel looks like a premiere defensive forward.  Over the past

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