#### Predicting the Western Conference

Yesterday I posted my 100% statistics based predictions for the eastern conference, today here are the predictions for the western conference.  See the eastern conference predictions for more details on how these predictions are calculated but generally speaking I use my player rating system and combine them with my estimates for ice time for every player to come up with a predicted goals for and against for every team.  I…

September 27, 2011

#### Predicting the Eastern Conference – Version 2.0

A week or two ago I presented a prediction of the eastern conference using a purely statistics based analysis.  There were a number of limitations with the process which I outlined at the beginning of the post but I have fixed some of those so this is version 2.0 of the prediction algorithm.  Let me summarize the process.  I took each teams current rosters and estimated the amount of even strength,…

September 26, 2011

#### Mike Weaver – Premiere Defensive Defenseman

Over on Pension Plan Puppets there was a brief discussion of some of the top defensive defensemen and I suggested that Mike Weaver has to be considered among the top few defenders in the NHL.  The response was generally along the lines of ‘Mike who?’ and then followed with “he only looks good because he plays in front of Vokoun who may be the best goalie in the NHL.”  My…

September 15, 2011

#### Predicting the Eastern Conference

I have spent a lot of time and effort putting together player ratings so I decided it was time to finally put them to good use and attempt to use them to predict results for the upcoming season.  This is my attempt at the eastern conference and time permitting I’ll tackle the western conference in the future. To accomplish this goal I used my 3-year (2008-11) offensive (HARO+) and defensive…

September 13, 2011

#### Top 15 NHL goalies

Here is my view of the top 15 goalies in the NHL today.  Although I haven’t presented a hard statistical argument for each goalie I did consult a variety of statistics when compiling the list including some advanced stats and my own player rating system. 1.  Tim Thomas – Even if you account for the fact that Thomas plays behind a great team with maybe the best shutdown defenseman in…

September 6, 2011

#### We Don't Know

I haven’t yet weighed in on the recent deaths of Derek Boogaard and Rick Rypien but with the passing yesterday of Wade Belak I have decided to let my thoughts be heard. First off, it has been a sad summer with the passing of these three players and my sincere condolences go out to their families and friends.  Regardless of the circumstances, any death is a sad and somber event…

September 1, 2011