Apr 212011
 

The best and most consistent line for the Maple Leafs this past season was the Grabovski-Kulemin-MacArthur line.  This trio of forwards are all just entering their primes at ages 27, 24 and 26 respectively and they were the second, third and fourth leading point producers on the Leafs.  I thought it might be interesting to take a look at how these three guys careers have progressed up to now.  Here are each players basic stats over the past 4 seasons (3 for Kulemin) along with their 5v5 even strength HARO+, HARD+ and HART+ statistics (my HockeyAnalysis.com offense, defence and total ratings).

Mikhail Grabovski:

Season Games Goals Assists Points +/- HARO+ HARD+ HART+
2007-08 24 3 6 9 -4 1.185 0.641 0.913
2008-09 78 20 28 48 -8 0.959 0.891 0.925
2009-10 59 10 25 35 3 1.209 0.904 1.057
2010-11 81 29 29 58 14 1.343 1.064 1.204
2008-11 (3 yr) 218 59 82 141 9 1.137 0.972 1.055

In limited ice time he showed some decent offensive capabilities in his rookie 2007-08 season and progressed nicely in 2008-09 statistically but his ratings suffered some.  Many people considered his injury shortened 2009-10 season to be a bit of a disappointment but his HARO+ rating indicates that he really helped his team offensively when he was on the ice and in 2010-11 he took his offensive game to another level again.  Of the 221 players who have played at least 1500 minutes of 5v5 even strength ice time over the past 2 seasons, Grabovski ranks 18th in HARO+ and 24th in HART+ which is outstanding.

Nikolai Kulemin:

Season Games Goals Assists Points +/- HARO+ HARD+ HART+
2008-09 73 15 16 31 -8 1.092 0.757 0.925
2009-10 78 16 20 36 0 1.050 1.034 1.042
2010-11 82 30 27 57 7 1.264 1.024 1.144
2008-11 (3 yr) 233 61 63 124 -1 1.109 0.952 1.030

Kulemin had a more than respectable 15 goal rookie season and he showed that his good shot will work in the NHL but last season was a bit of a breakout year for him even though he didn’t dramatically improve his offensive numbers.  It was a breakout season because he really learned how to assert himself physically.  He isn’t a big physically imposing player, but he is strong on his skates and has learned that he can hold his own against opposing forwards.  This has really helped his defensive game and then this year he took his offensive game to another level.  Kulemin ranks 57 in HARO+ and 40th in HART+ among forwards over the past 2 seasons.

Clarke MacArthur:

Season Games Goals Assists Points +/- HARO+ HARD+ HART+
2007-08 37 8 7 15 3 1.219 0.922 1.070
2008-09 71 17 14 31 -4 0.941 0.902 0.922
2009-10 81 16 19 35 -16 0.983 0.792 0.887
2010-11 82 21 41 62 -3 1.206 0.971 1.089
2008-11 (3 yr) 234 54 74 128 -23 1.025 0.904 0.964

Of the three players, MacArthur has clearly been the lease consistent so far in his career, offensively anyway.  He showed some good things in limited action in his rookie year but his offensive production stagnated for a couple seasons before taking a jump forward his season.  Defensively he has been mostly mediocre for his whole career so far.  Overall we can be less certain about what MacArthur will bring to the Leafs in the future.  At best I think he is a decent second line center who can provide some secondary offense.

Of the three players, I think MacArthur is the least valuable and the Leafs will have to make a decision on where he fits in going forward.  He probably has more pure playmaking skills than either Grabovski or Kulemin which makes him a good fit for that line.  Overall thought he is easily replaceable and a decision will have to be made as to whether to whether to keep him around and at what salary.  An alternative would be to work a youngster such as Kadri onto that line either at wing or at center (moving Grabovski, who struggles at the face off dot, to wing) and use MacArthur as trade bait to fill a hole elsewhere.

Apr 182011
 

By all accounts, Corey Perry had an exceptional season in 2010-11 and this is particularly true down the stretch when he flew by Steven Stamkos for the lead in goals scored and pushed himself into serious contention from the Hart Trophy as the leagues most valuable player.  There is no doubt that Perry’s production level surpassed anything he had previously done in his career, but was he truly more valuable to the Ducks than in previous seasons?  Let’s look at the numbers.

Season GP Goals Assists Points +/- PPG PPA PP Points
2010-11 82 50 48 98 9 14 17 31
2009-10 82 27 49 76 0 6 17 23
2008-09 78 32 40 72 10 10 14 24
2007-08 70 29 25 54 12 11 6 17

Based on the raw stats, he has been better in 2010-11 in terms of goal scoring and fairly consistent in terms of collecting assists but despite his increase in goals and points, his +/- hasn’t increased significantly.

Let’s look a little deeper into Perry’s even strength 5v5 statistics.

Season GF20 GA20 GF% TMGF20 TMGA20 TMGF% OppGF20 OppGA20 OppGF%
2010-11 0.928 0.882 0.513 0.876 0.843 0.510 0.774 0.745 0.509
2009-10 1.047 0.828 0.558 0.694 0.807 0.463 0.776 0.759 0.505
2008-09 1.113 0.754 0.596 0.712 0.775 0.479 0.756 0.751 0.501
2007-08 1.003 0.683 0.595 0.674 0.551 0.550 0.724 0.725 0.500

(source:  http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=2)

For those unfamiliar with my terminology, GF20 is Perry’s goals for by team while on the ice per 20 minutes of ice time, GA20 is the same for goals against and GF% is GF20/(GF20+GA20) and represents what percentage of all goals scored while he was on the ice were scored by his team.  The TM stats are the same but for his team mates when they are not playing with Perry and the Opp stats are the same but for Perry’s opponents when they are not playing against Perry.

Now, the first observation you may make is that Perry’s GF20 was lower in 2010-11 than in any of the previous season so while Perry produced more offense (goals in particular) in 2010-11 individually, the team produced somewhat less when Perry was on the ice.  In other words, Perry’s goal/point production may have come at the cost of his line mates goal/point production.  The same thing is true defensively.  More goals were scored against Perry while Perry was on the ice than in any previous season.

Now, looking at team mate production when his teammates are not on the ice with Perry we find that they produce slightly fewer goals per 20 minutes (0.876 without Perry vs 0.928 with) but also give up slightly fewer goals too (0.843 without Perry, 0.882 with).  What is interesting though is Perry’s line mates this season appear to be better offensive players than in prior seasons as their 2010-11 GF20 was 0.876 vs 0.694 in 2009-10 though they also had a slightly higher GA20 in 2010-11 as well.  So from these numbers it seems that overall Perry played with significantly better offensive players in 2010-11 than in prior years and slightly worse defensive players in 2010-11 than in prior years.

As for quality of opposition, the offensive production of Perry’s opponents in 2010-11 was about the same as in 2009-10 while defensively they were slightly better.

So, in summary we can state that when Perry was on the ice in 5v5 even strength situations the Ducks produced less in 2010-11 than they did in 2009-10 and gave up more goals in 2011-10 than they did in 2009-10.  Furthermore, overall his line mates appear to have been significantly better offensive players in 2010-11 than in 2009-10 and only slightly worse defensive players while his opposition appears to be similarly skilled offensively and marginally less skilled defensively.

So, what does this all mean?  Here are Perry’s offensive and defensive ratings:

Season HARO+ HARD+ HART+
2010-11 1.164 0.852 1.008
2009-10 1.300 0.917 1.109
2008-09 1.391 0.953 1.172
2007-08 1.325 0.979 1.152

With all things considered, despite scoring 50 goals this past season, one could make an argument that 2010-11 was well below his performance during the three previous seasons.  It seems that his improved individual numbers may have come at the cost of his team mates and that made him less valuable to the Ducks overall.

Apr 152011
 

Before I get into the main subject of this post let me first point out that I have updated stats.hockeyanalysis.com to include all 1, 2, 3 and 4 year player ratings that can be calculated using the last 4 years of NHL data.  For more information on my player ratings read this.

I generate offense, defense and overall ratings for each and every player in the NHL and I wanted to get an idea of how much each position contributes to the performance of the team.  To accomplish this I multiplied each players offensive and defensive ratings (HARO+, HARD+) by their ice time (5v5 ratings and ice time used) and summed them up by position and then compared the positions total to the overall total.  I did this using the ratings calculated for the past 4 seasons combined as well as for each of the past 4 individual seasons.  This is the result I came up with :

Offense:

Season(s) Center RW LW D D
2007-11 24.64% 18.04% 17.14% 20.09% 20.09%
2007-08 26.91% 16.22% 16.47% 20.20% 20.20%
2008-09 25.23% 18.01% 16.66% 20.05% 20.05%
2009-10 23.93% 18.47% 17.49% 20.06% 20.06%
2010-11 25.13% 18.02% 16.76% 20.04% 20.04%

Defense:

Season(s) Center RW LW D D G
2007-11 20.67% 15.08% 14.27% 16.72% 16.72% 16.55%
2007-08 22.46% 13.83% 13.81% 16.75% 16.75% 16.39%
2008-09 21.06% 15.49% 13.76% 16.67% 16.67% 16.35%
2009-10 19.98% 15.46% 14.79% 16.73% 16.73% 16.30%
2010-11 21.35% 15.08% 14.21% 16.51% 16.51% 16.35%

Average of Offense + Defense:

Season(s) Center RW LW D D G
2007-11 22.65% 16.56% 15.71% 18.40% 18.40% 8.28%
2007-08 24.69% 15.03% 15.14% 18.48% 18.48% 8.19%
2008-09 23.14% 16.75% 15.21% 18.36% 18.36% 8.17%
2009-10 21.95% 16.96% 16.14% 18.39% 18.39% 8.15%
2010-11 23.24% 16.55% 15.48% 18.27% 18.27% 8.17%

Note:  I split the defense contribution over 2 positions.

Now, the first thing I noticed with these numbers is how surprisingly consistent they are from season to season, especially for defense and goaltending.  Up front players frequently shift from center to wing and from left wing to right wing so that may account for some of the (still relatively small) seasonal fluctuations.  Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised at this consistency but it does give me some confidence in my rating system that it is consistent across seasons as well as with multiple season ratings.

The second thing that caught my attention was the importance of defensive contribution to the offense.  Approximately 40% of offensive production can be attributed to the two defensemen on the ice and the defensemen are more important than the wingers. Part of this is simply that defensemen get more ice time than forwards since there are only 3 defense pairs versus 4 forward lines.  The other part is probably that they play an integral part of collecting rebounds and transitioning the team from defense to offense so they may have greater influence in the percentage of time played in the offensive zone.

Of the three forward positions, the center position is clearly the most important but we probably figured that.  Face offs might be a contributing factor but also we might just find that the most talented players end up playing center.  Right wings are slightly more important than left wings but the difference is not substantial.

Next I wondered what this data would mean to what teams should allocate for salaries.  For a 60 million payroll the average salary for position should work out to the following:

Pos Salary (Million$)
Center 13.6
RW 9.9
LW 9.4
D 11.0
D 11.0
G 5.0

Of course elite players skew the team payroll structure a fair bit.  As a LW earning over $9.5M Alexander Ovechkin is eating up the entire Capitals allotment for LWs and Crosby, Malkin and Staal are way over budget for the Penguins but you have to work around the talent you have.  A couple months ago Behind the Net Hockey Blog had a post outlining the salary allocated to players by position (split between forwards, defense, and goaltending).  Forwards were allocated 59.1% of a teams payroll, defense 32.2% and goaltending 8.7% over the past 4 seasons which compares to 54.9%, 36.8% and 8.3% for my ratings.  That would mean that forwards are overpaid (relative to their contribution) by about 4.1%, defense under paid by 4.6% and goalies over paid by about 0.4%.

For interest sake I decided to take a look at the Vancouver Canucks performance distribution since they have a fairly well balanced team and are a serious cup contender.  Here is what I found:

2007-11 2010-11
Position Offense Defense Average Offense Defense Average
Center 23.44% 19.96% 21.70% 21.04% 17.15% 19.10%
RW 11.44% 9.88% 10.66% 9.97% 10.34% 10.15%
LW 25.14% 21.88% 23.51% 31.12% 25.11% 28.11%
D 19.99% 17.21% 18.60% 18.94% 15.92% 17.43%
D 19.99% 17.21% 18.60% 18.94% 15.92% 17.43%
G 0.00% 13.86% 6.93% 0.00% 15.55% 7.77%

(Note:  The above is calculated using the current roster using the ratings and ice time over the past season or four seasons regardless of whether that ice time was with the Canucks.  This is an evaluation of the team ending the 2010-11 season with the Canucks, not the Canucks team performance over past seasons.  Also four season ratings should give a better player evaluation than single season ratings due to the larger sample size so I would consider them closer to true value.)

The Canucks are definitely a team driven by a group of quality left wingers or at least players listed as playing LW such as D. Sedin, Burrows, Raymond, Torres but I suspect some get shifted to RW from time to time.  Also, as good as Luongo is the quality and depth of the team in front of him reduces his relative contribution to his team to below average levels.  In the future I’ll take a look at some other teams as it’ll be interesting to see how goalie contribution changes from good teams with subpar  goalies (Detroit maybe) to bad teams with good goalies (Florida – Vokoun!! Though my ratings don’t value him as highly as many others do).