I have been pretty quiet here recently not because of a lack of things I want to write about but because I needed to get my stats site up and running first so I can reference it in my writings. Plus, getting my stats site up has been on my todo list for a real long time. There will be a lot more stats to come including my with/against on ice pairing stats which I had up a season or two ago and many of you found interesting as well as team stats but for now let me explain what is there.
What you will find there now is my player rating system which produces the following ratings:
HARD – Hockey Analysis Rating – Defense
HARO – Hockey Analysis Rating – Offense
HART – Hockey Analysis Rating – Total
HARD+ – Hockey Analysis Rating – Defense
HARO+ – Hockey Analysis Rating – Offense
HART+ – Hockey Analysis Rating – Total
HARD is the defensive rating and is calculated by taking expected goals against while on the ice and dividing it by actual goals against while on the ice. The expected goals against is calculated by taking the average of a players team mates goals against per 20 minutes (TMGA20) and averaging it with the players opposition goals for per 20 minutes (OppGF20). Similarly HARO is calculated by taking a players actual goals for while on the ice and dividing it by the expected goals against while on the ice. For both, a rating above 1.00 means that the player helped the team perform better than expected when he was on the ice where as a rating below 1.00 means the player hurt the teams performance when he was on the ice. HART is just an average of HARD and HARO.
HARD+, HARO+ and HART+ are enhanced ratings which result from an iterative process that iteratively feeds HARD and HARO ratings into an algorithm to refine the ratings. For the most part this iterative process produced a nice stable state but sometimes the algorithm goes haywire and things fail (i.e. for a particular season or seasons). For this reason I am calling the + ratings experimental but if you don’t see anything wacky (i.e. large differences in every players ratings) they should be considered reliable and probably better ratings than the straight HARD, HARO and HART ratings. Anything better than 1.00 should be considered better than the average player and anything less than 1.00 should be considered below average.
Since some people believe in Corsi more than I, I have created these ratings for goals, shots, corsi (shots + missed shots + blocked shots) and Fenwick (shots + missed shots). I do not believe these to be better than the regular goal ratings, especially if we are considering multiple seasons, but they are there for you anyway. It should be noted that when considering goals I can included goalies in my rating system (for HARD anyway), but when considering shots, corsi or fenwick I can’t since goalies probably don’t have a great influence on shot totals.
If that isn’t enough for you the ratings are available for 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 as well as a three year rating for 2007-10 and if that isn’t enough the ratings are available for 5v5 even strength, 5v4 power play, 4v5 penalty kill, 5v5 game tied, 5v5 up 1 goal, 5v5 up 2+ goals, 5v5 down 1 goal, and 5v5 down 2+ goals. Yes, that is a lot of information.
So, lets look at an example: 2007-10 3 year goal ratings for all skaters with at least 750 minutes played during 5v5 game tied situations. Performing that search will return a page with the following stats:
GF20 Goals For while player is on ice per 20 minutes of ice time.
GA20 Goals Against while player is on ice per 20 minutes of ice time.
GF% GF% = Goals For / (Goals For + Goals Against)
TMGF20 Weighted (by TOI together) average of all teammates GF20.
TMGA20 Weighted (by TOI together) average of all teammates GA20.
TMGF% Weighted (by TOI together) average of all teammates GF%.
OppGF20 Weighted (by TOI against each other) average of all opponents GF20.
OppGA20 Weighted (by TOI against each other) average of all opponents GA20.
OppGF% Weighted (by TOI against each other) average of all opponents GF%.
HARO Hockey Analysis Rating – Offense
HARD Hockey Analysis Rating – Defense
HART Hockey Analysis Rating – Total (average of HARO and HARD)
HARO+ Hockey Analysis Rating – Offense – Enhanced (experimental)
HARD+ Hockey Analysis Rating – Defense – Enhanced (Experimental)
HART+ Hockey Analysis Rating – Total – Enhanced (Experimental, average of HARO+ and HARD+)
By default the list will be sorted by HART but you can click on any of the header links and sort by that statistic. You can also filter by team or position (skaters, forwards, defense or goalies). As you can see, if Sturm can get healthy, the Kings may have picked up a very valuable piece of the puzzle for next to nothing. If we sort by HARO+ we can identify some of the best offensive players in the game and we find Pavel Datsyuk right there at the top of the list followed by Jason Arnott and Sidney Crosby. There are definitely some surprises but most of the names you’d expect rise to the top of the list. If you click on a players name you will get sent to the players card with all the players data in one nice place. For example, Pavel Datsyuk.
I am going to save any further analysis to future posts but for now feel free to search the numbers as you see fit. There is a lot there to sink your teeth into and post and questions or feedback in the comments below. If you spot any errors definitely point them out to me as well.