How do Goalies Age Part II
Earlier today I posted an article showing how a goalies save percentage varies by age. It was pointed out that one of the flaws in that analysis is that I didn’t account for the fact that over time the average NHL save percentage has varied, and has generally increased over time. In fact, the change from the 1980’s to the 1990’s is quite significant. As a result I decided it was important enough to take the next step and account for variations in league wide save percentages.
To accomplish this I took each goalies save percentage and divided it by the league wide save percentage for that year which essentially tells us how much a goalie was better or worse than his peers in that given year. Anything greater than 1 meant the goalie was better than the average goalie and anything less than 1 meant the goalie was not as good as the average goalie that year. I then performed the same analysis using this ratio number instead of straight save percentage.
The end result is that a goalies peak years generally start sooner than seen under the straight save percentage analysis and the drop off in a goalies latter years is more pronounced as well. Generally speaking a goalie will have his best years between ages 22 and 34 after which the drop off is fairly pronounced. This isn’t true for all goalies though as the truly elite goalies such as Roy, Belfour, Hasek and Brodeur played above their peers well beyond age 34 but for the majority of goalies it is downhill once you get past your early 30’s.
Note: In the above chart I only included ages for which data was available for at least 3 goalies and I only included years where a goalie played at least 5 games. This was done so as to not skew the chart at the edges and the result is only ages 19-41 are shown though Barasso played at age 18 and Hasek played until age 43.