Comments on: What might Burke do? http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/11/29/what-might-burke-do/ Advancing Our Knowledge of Hockey Through Statistical Analysis Thu, 10 May 2012 15:50:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: HockeyAnalysis.com » Blog Archive » Why no Third Option for Leafs? http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/11/29/what-might-burke-do/comment-page-1/#comment-4008 HockeyAnalysis.com » Blog Archive » Why no Third Option for Leafs? Mon, 09 Mar 2009 22:21:57 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=823#comment-4008 [...] took over the team just over 3 months ago now. Well, everyone except me. Back when Burke was hired I wrote the following: Other than Antropov, I really don’t think anyone is a sure bet to be traded. I don’t think [...] [...] took over the team just over 3 months ago now. Well, everyone except me. Back when Burke was hired I wrote the following: Other than Antropov, I really don’t think anyone is a sure bet to be traded. I don’t think [...]

]]> By: HockeyAnalysis.com » Blog Archive » Announcement, odds and ends http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/11/29/what-might-burke-do/comment-page-1/#comment-4007 HockeyAnalysis.com » Blog Archive » Announcement, odds and ends Wed, 07 Jan 2009 18:49:40 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=823#comment-4007 [...] but it does confirm indicate that Burke really likes to acquire players he knows well. As I have said before, Burke isn’t one to make a trade just to dump a player he doesn’t want or need, he [...] [...] but it does confirm indicate that Burke really likes to acquire players he knows well. As I have said before, Burke isn’t one to make a trade just to dump a player he doesn’t want or need, he [...]

]]> By: HandsAlot http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/11/29/what-might-burke-do/comment-page-1/#comment-4006 HandsAlot Mon, 01 Dec 2008 07:32:57 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=823#comment-4006 Forwards: ------------- ------------- Antropov Hagman Grabovski Stempniak Kulemin Stajan ------------- ------------- Mitchell ------------- (They are lacking two top line players, a skilled young forward with 2nd or 3rd line potential, and two enforcers) Defence: Kubina Schenn Van Ryn Stralman ------------- ------------- (They are lacking two defenceman, preferably at least one top line talent and one shut down defenceman) Goalies: ------------- Pogge (They are lacking a starting goaltender, Pogge needs to be assessed at an NHL level) I think those are the players you build around if you are looking to compete in the next few years. They have been fairly consistent and can offer quite a bit for this team going forward. Granted, any player should be traded for the right price. This also only takes into account players currently on the roster. ___________________________________ Trades for the following should be looked at: - Players that can get a good return: Toskala, Kaberle - Players that might bring in a decent return: Ponikarovsky, Finger - Players that a team might acquire to patch holes: Hollweg, Mayers, White, Frogren - Players who probably can't be moved: Blake Moore - Given the history, will Burke keep him? He can be useful in a trade and on the roster. Joseph - Retired and awarded a position within the organization ___________________________________ - The leafs can swap Kaberle for a young promising forward. - Toskala can be shipped away for high draft picks. - The rest can be shipped away for depth, draft picks, or players under the radar. Forwards:

————- ————- Antropov
Hagman Grabovski Stempniak
Kulemin Stajan ————-
————- Mitchell ————-

(They are lacking two top line players, a skilled young forward with 2nd or 3rd line potential, and two enforcers)

Defence:
Kubina Schenn
Van Ryn Stralman
————- ————-

(They are lacking two defenceman, preferably at least one top line talent and one shut down defenceman)

Goalies:
————-
Pogge

(They are lacking a starting goaltender, Pogge needs to be assessed at an NHL level)

I think those are the players you build around if you are looking to compete in the next few years. They have been fairly consistent and can offer quite a bit for this team going forward. Granted, any player should be traded for the right price. This also only takes into account players currently on the roster.

___________________________________

Trades for the following should be looked at:

- Players that can get a good return: Toskala, Kaberle
- Players that might bring in a decent return: Ponikarovsky, Finger
- Players that a team might acquire to patch holes: Hollweg, Mayers, White, Frogren
- Players who probably can’t be moved: Blake

Moore – Given the history, will Burke keep him? He can be useful in a trade and on the roster.

Joseph – Retired and awarded a position within the organization

___________________________________

- The leafs can swap Kaberle for a young promising forward.
- Toskala can be shipped away for high draft picks.
- The rest can be shipped away for depth, draft picks, or players under the radar.

]]> By: Yuri Suderov http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/11/29/what-might-burke-do/comment-page-1/#comment-4005 Yuri Suderov Sun, 30 Nov 2008 22:06:03 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=823#comment-4005 I am not a big fan of the Leafs but I do like what Burke has done with his other teams. Good to see the Leafs going in the right direction for once. I am not a big fan of the Leafs but I do like what Burke has done with his other teams. Good to see the Leafs going in the right direction for once.

]]> By: Maple Leafs Hot Stove » Blog Archive » The Burkean Age Begins http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/11/29/what-might-burke-do/comment-page-1/#comment-4004 Maple Leafs Hot Stove » Blog Archive » The Burkean Age Begins Sun, 30 Nov 2008 05:58:26 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=823#comment-4004 [...] purging of anything of value and stockpiling of draft picks, as some anticipate. David Johnson at Hockey Analysis provides a great evaluation of his past tendencies when re-building that indicates that Burke leans [...] [...] purging of anything of value and stockpiling of draft picks, as some anticipate. David Johnson at Hockey Analysis provides a great evaluation of his past tendencies when re-building that indicates that Burke leans [...]

]]> By: David Johnson http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/11/29/what-might-burke-do/comment-page-1/#comment-4003 David Johnson Sat, 29 Nov 2008 20:40:34 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=823#comment-4003 I am sure Burke's goal is to make the playoffs next season and be a contender in 2-3 years. If he takes much longer than that he isn't doing his job very well. After next June's draft he will likely have two top 5 picks (Schenn and whoever) in the franchise ready to make a big impact, a top level offensive defenseman in Kaberle, some pretty good complementary defensemen in Kubina, Van Ryn, Finger, White, Frogren and Stralman, some solid second, third and fourth line forwards, and upwards of $15-18 million on free agents (up to $9 million more if he rids himself of Toskala or Kubina's contract). If Burke can't take that base and make it a playoff contender next season I don't know why MLSE hired him. One thing Leaf fans do is way over evaluate draft picks. At best 5% of 4th round picks play in the NHL at any skill level, mostly 4th liners or journeymen types, and hardly ever do they amount to top 6 forward types. Second round picks aren't a whole lot better. In the 1997 draft, which I randomly picked, the best player taken in the fourth round turned out to be Joe Corvo. Now Corvo isn't a bad defenseman but not exactly something special. The next best player was Adam Mair, a dime a dozen physical fourth line player. Brad Larsen and Shane Willis bounced around a bit but no one else did anything. So, the best of the bunch was a #5/6 defenseman. The second round that year produced Henrik Tallinder and Kristian Huselius. Nice players, but not top tier talents. In return for the second round pick the Leafs picked up Grabovski who appears to have every bit a chance of being as good as Huselius. I am sure Burke’s goal is to make the playoffs next season and be a contender in 2-3 years. If he takes much longer than that he isn’t doing his job very well.

After next June’s draft he will likely have two top 5 picks (Schenn and whoever) in the franchise ready to make a big impact, a top level offensive defenseman in Kaberle, some pretty good complementary defensemen in Kubina, Van Ryn, Finger, White, Frogren and Stralman, some solid second, third and fourth line forwards, and upwards of $15-18 million on free agents (up to $9 million more if he rids himself of Toskala or Kubina’s contract). If Burke can’t take that base and make it a playoff contender next season I don’t know why MLSE hired him.

One thing Leaf fans do is way over evaluate draft picks. At best 5% of 4th round picks play in the NHL at any skill level, mostly 4th liners or journeymen types, and hardly ever do they amount to top 6 forward types. Second round picks aren’t a whole lot better. In the 1997 draft, which I randomly picked, the best player taken in the fourth round turned out to be Joe Corvo. Now Corvo isn’t a bad defenseman but not exactly something special. The next best player was Adam Mair, a dime a dozen physical fourth line player. Brad Larsen and Shane Willis bounced around a bit but no one else did anything. So, the best of the bunch was a #5/6 defenseman. The second round that year produced Henrik Tallinder and Kristian Huselius. Nice players, but not top tier talents.

In return for the second round pick the Leafs picked up Grabovski who appears to have every bit a chance of being as good as Huselius.

]]> By: Gerald Norton http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/11/29/what-might-burke-do/comment-page-1/#comment-4002 Gerald Norton Sat, 29 Nov 2008 18:17:28 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=823#comment-4002 It would seem to me that Burke has a 6 year window to make a contender, hence the six year contract. This would imply a near full rebuild. Apart from Schenn, and possibly Kaberle, this team has absolutely no top end talent whatsoever. So how to resolve this? Either trade for it, sign it, or draft it. Trading for it is near impossible, as no team sends out top talent for a menagerie of second tier players. Signing these players is also very tough, as to do so you end up paying a big premium, both in salary and term. Unfortunately for the Leafs, Burke has proven to be a little too free wheeling in this regard, and has all but crippled his previous team with his recent FA moves. If I were a Leaf fan, this would be my biggest fear, because this is EXACTLY what JFJ tried to do. Last is the draft option. This too is rife with risk, and in order to mitigate the inherent risk of selecting among immature talent, you have to either have tremendous luck, a solid talent pool, or a large number of picks. Neither Burke, nor the Leafs org. have a solid track record of assessing young talent. With 30 teams, a sufficiently deep talent pool is virtually impossible to count on. The Leafs, for a rebuilding team is shockingly light on picks (no 2nd or 4th round picks in 2009 or 2010). So, in reality, it's either another off season FA frenzy, or a gutting of the team for picks. With the dwindling ice time for Kabby, and the pro NA affinity of BB, I expect to see the rapid exodus of #'s 15, 80 and 23 for picks and short term problem contracts. Re-building is a risky proposal, and for every Philly, there are 3 Florida's. It would seem to me that Burke has a 6 year window to make a contender, hence the six year contract. This would imply a near full rebuild. Apart from Schenn, and possibly Kaberle, this team has absolutely no top end talent whatsoever. So how to resolve this? Either trade for it, sign it, or draft it. Trading for it is near impossible, as no team sends out top talent for a menagerie of second tier players. Signing these players is also very tough, as to do so you end up paying a big premium, both in salary and term. Unfortunately for the Leafs, Burke has proven to be a little too free wheeling in this regard, and has all but crippled his previous team with his recent FA moves. If I were a Leaf fan, this would be my biggest fear, because this is EXACTLY what JFJ tried to do.
Last is the draft option. This too is rife with risk, and in order to mitigate the inherent risk of selecting among immature talent, you have to either have tremendous luck, a solid talent pool, or a large number of picks. Neither Burke, nor the Leafs org. have a solid track record of assessing young talent. With 30 teams, a sufficiently deep talent pool is virtually impossible to count on. The Leafs, for a rebuilding team is shockingly light on picks (no 2nd or 4th round picks in 2009 or 2010).
So, in reality, it’s either another off season FA frenzy, or a gutting of the team for picks. With the dwindling ice time for Kabby, and the pro NA affinity of BB, I expect to see the rapid exodus of #’s 15, 80 and 23 for picks and short term problem contracts.
Re-building is a risky proposal, and for every Philly, there are 3 Florida’s.

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