Nov 292008
 

So Brian Burke is set to officially, and finally, take over the Leafs general manager position this afternoon. So, what does that mean in the short, medium and long term? Let’s take a look at what Brian Burke might do.

When Brian Burke took over the GM position of the Anaheim Ducks in 2005 he inherited a relatively bad team, not unlike the Leafs. But, unlike the Leafs, there was a lot of high end talent in the system like Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Dustin Penner, etc. and he also had an elite level goalie which went a long way to allowing him to quickly build the Ducks into a Stanley Cup winner.

In 1998 he took over the GM position of a Vancouver team which ended the 1997-98 team near the bottom of the standings which was not completely unlike the situation the Leafs currently find themselves in. Back then the Canucks had some talented players up front including Pavel Bure, Alexander Mogilny, Mark Messier, and Markus Naslund and had a 20 year old rookie defenseman in Mattias Ohlund. Also on that team were recently acquired but not yet developed into top level players Bryan McCabe and Todd Bertuzzi. While that Canucks team had more pure talent up front than the current Leafs squad, the current Leafs squad probably has more talent on the back end than the 1997-98 Canucks squad. What the Canucks had and the Leafs have is questionable goaltending.

Burke began rebuilding the Canucks by trading Bure to the Panthers for Jovanovski, Dave Gagner, Kevin Weekes and Mke Brown. He then made several trades (including sending McCabe to the Blackhawks) which ended up with the Canucks landing the second overall pick to go along with their own third overall pick and Burke drafted the Sedin twins. Then in 1999-2000 he traded Mogilny to the Devils for Brendan Morrison and the Canucks started to see success in their rebuilding process.

What was left after those moves became the core of the Canucks team which saw significant regular season success in the early 2000’s but not as much post season success. The one problem that Burke never successfully addresses was in goal and that really held them back from being a dominant team able to win a Stanley Cup.

In the case of the Anaheim Ducks they had the goaltender and the core of young forwards. What Burke did was brought in three big time defensemen (Niedermayer, Pronger, and Beauchemin), a top flight veteran scoring forward in Selanne and changed the team into a big, physical team.

So what might all this mean for the Leafs? First off, I think it is safe to assume that Burke will at some point between now and next summer make one or more significant bold moves. He has shown that he is not afraid to make the big trade or free agent signing and for the most part he has been successful. But with that said, I do not believe, like some seem to, that he will hold a massive fire sale stockpiling draft picks, largely in the second, third or fourth rounds. That doesn’t seem to be his style. In reality, most of Burke’s moves have him targeting NHL ready players, not picks. When he traded away Bure and Mogilny from Vancouver, he traded for players (Jovanovski and Morrison in particular). When he traded for the second overall pick in 1999, he wasn’t trading for the pick as much as he was trading for one of the Sedin’s. He sets his sight on a target and goes after it.

In terms of trades between now and the trade deadline, there are not many players that Burke needs to make an immediate decision on as only Nik Antropov and Dominic Moore are set to be UFA’s. Nik Antropov is an interesting case to see how Burke deals with him. Antropov has the size and strength that Burke likes and is willing to muck it up in the corners, but doesn’t utilize his size quite as much as he could. My guess is that there will be enough teams interested in Antropov that Burke will get more than enough in return for him to decide to trade Antropov rather than attempt re-sign him.

Other than Antropov, I really don’t think anyone is a sure bet to be traded. I don’t think Burke will come in and say ‘I have to trade players X, Y and Z for whatever draft picks I can get for them’ as many believe he should. His style is to be more pro-active in acquiring assets he wants, rather than get rid of assets he doesn’t want. If he wants an asset and it is going to require trading Van Ryn to acquire that asset, Van Ryn will be traded. If he wants an asset and it is going to require trading Lee Stempniak to acquire that asset, he’ll look at trading Stempniak. But I just don’t think he is going to put himself in a position of actively selling a player for whatever he can get for him. That is probably smart because when you don’t value your assets and get set in your mind that you want to get rid of them, you’ll more often than not trade them to one of the first bidders rather than wait for the fairest and best bid.

So, who might Burke go after? I don’t think Burke has any interest in going after second tier guys, and to be honest, the Leafs don’t need second tier guys. The Leafs need core players to build a franchise around. Burke also seems to give a high importance to having a strong defense and have big, physical forwards. Burke is also highly loyal and likes to bring in people he is familiar with (in Anaheim he brought in Brad May, Todd Bertuzzi and Brendan Morrison). He also brought good friend Dave Nonis to Anaheim and rumours are he will be brining him to the Toronto organization as well. He also values loyalty his players show for their team and believes veterans should be treated fairly and respectfully. In Vancouver he refused to ask Mark Messier to waive his no trade clause even though it would have been better for the franchise. He just thought someone of Messier’s stature didn’t deserve to be put in that position. So don’t automatically expect that Burke will be asking Kaberle and Kubina to waive their no trade clauses.

One of the first big names that Burke will likely bring in to the franchise will be in next summers draft. Who that will be we don’t know but the Leafs are likely to be a lottery pick, and quite possibly a top 5 pick. If not, don’t be surprised if Burke tries to trade up to get someone he really wants.

The Leafs do have a fairly good and deep defense. Kaberle is one of the leagues better puck moving defensemen and Luke Schenn appears to be poised to develop into a solid physical defensive defensemen. In some ways those two could be considered a poor man’s Niedermayer-Pronger duo (if Schenn develops as expected). After that you have a couple of good all round defensemen in Kubina and Van Ryn and a solid group complementary defensemen in Finger, White, Stralman and Frogren. But don’t let that make you think Burke won’t do anything on defense. I would not be surprised if Burke targets someone like Jay Bouwmeester who will be a UFA next summer. He may also decide to target Viktor Hedman in the draft.

In terms of forwards he may target, I would not be surprised if he targets the Sedin twins again. The Sedin’s have yet to sign a contract extension in Vancouver and as we have seen with Bertuzzi, Morrison and May, he likes bringing in players he knows. The Leafs are also one of the teams that should have the cap space and budget space to sign both of the Sedin’s and it is likely that they would prefer to stay together.

The most difficult position for Burke to fix will be goaltending. Goaltenders are just too difficult to find as those with top tier goalies generally lock them up and refuse to trade them. At this point Toskala hasn’t shown me he is a legit top 15 starting goalie and Pogge has been just OK in the AHL and probably isn’t ready, if he ever will be, to be a starter in the NHL. With Steve Mason playing well in Columbus Burke could possibly pry Pascal Leclaire away from the Blue Jackets but while he had a very good year last year is far from a proven first string goalie. Kari Lehtonen of the Atlanta Thrashers is another potential trade option or he could look at someone like Khabibulin as a UFA next summer. Beyond those two he’ll have to look at prospects in other teams organizations such as Vancouver’s Cory Schneider or he could take a chance that Ray Emery, who is playing well in Russia, has his head on straight and can regain his form from the 2006-07 season.

There are many people who believe that rebuilding the Leafs into a serious playoff team is a 3-5 year proposition. I disagree and I do not think that Brian Burke believes that either. The Leafs have some pretty good players on this roster, they just don’t have the top tier game breakers. If they can add a top tier player in next years draft, a top tier goalie and a couple of quality free agent signings such as the Sedin’s or Bouwmeester, this team can be turned around in relatively short order and Burke has the salary cap space to do just that.

  7 Responses to “What might Burke do?”

  1.  

    It would seem to me that Burke has a 6 year window to make a contender, hence the six year contract. This would imply a near full rebuild. Apart from Schenn, and possibly Kaberle, this team has absolutely no top end talent whatsoever. So how to resolve this? Either trade for it, sign it, or draft it. Trading for it is near impossible, as no team sends out top talent for a menagerie of second tier players. Signing these players is also very tough, as to do so you end up paying a big premium, both in salary and term. Unfortunately for the Leafs, Burke has proven to be a little too free wheeling in this regard, and has all but crippled his previous team with his recent FA moves. If I were a Leaf fan, this would be my biggest fear, because this is EXACTLY what JFJ tried to do.
    Last is the draft option. This too is rife with risk, and in order to mitigate the inherent risk of selecting among immature talent, you have to either have tremendous luck, a solid talent pool, or a large number of picks. Neither Burke, nor the Leafs org. have a solid track record of assessing young talent. With 30 teams, a sufficiently deep talent pool is virtually impossible to count on. The Leafs, for a rebuilding team is shockingly light on picks (no 2nd or 4th round picks in 2009 or 2010).
    So, in reality, it’s either another off season FA frenzy, or a gutting of the team for picks. With the dwindling ice time for Kabby, and the pro NA affinity of BB, I expect to see the rapid exodus of #’s 15, 80 and 23 for picks and short term problem contracts.
    Re-building is a risky proposal, and for every Philly, there are 3 Florida’s.

  2.  

    I am sure Burke’s goal is to make the playoffs next season and be a contender in 2-3 years. If he takes much longer than that he isn’t doing his job very well.

    After next June’s draft he will likely have two top 5 picks (Schenn and whoever) in the franchise ready to make a big impact, a top level offensive defenseman in Kaberle, some pretty good complementary defensemen in Kubina, Van Ryn, Finger, White, Frogren and Stralman, some solid second, third and fourth line forwards, and upwards of $15-18 million on free agents (up to $9 million more if he rids himself of Toskala or Kubina’s contract). If Burke can’t take that base and make it a playoff contender next season I don’t know why MLSE hired him.

    One thing Leaf fans do is way over evaluate draft picks. At best 5% of 4th round picks play in the NHL at any skill level, mostly 4th liners or journeymen types, and hardly ever do they amount to top 6 forward types. Second round picks aren’t a whole lot better. In the 1997 draft, which I randomly picked, the best player taken in the fourth round turned out to be Joe Corvo. Now Corvo isn’t a bad defenseman but not exactly something special. The next best player was Adam Mair, a dime a dozen physical fourth line player. Brad Larsen and Shane Willis bounced around a bit but no one else did anything. So, the best of the bunch was a #5/6 defenseman. The second round that year produced Henrik Tallinder and Kristian Huselius. Nice players, but not top tier talents.

    In return for the second round pick the Leafs picked up Grabovski who appears to have every bit a chance of being as good as Huselius.

  3.  

    [...] purging of anything of value and stockpiling of draft picks, as some anticipate. David Johnson at Hockey Analysis provides a great evaluation of his past tendencies when re-building that indicates that Burke leans [...]

  4.  

    I am not a big fan of the Leafs but I do like what Burke has done with his other teams. Good to see the Leafs going in the right direction for once.

  5.  

    Forwards:

    ————- ————- Antropov
    Hagman Grabovski Stempniak
    Kulemin Stajan ————-
    ————- Mitchell ————-

    (They are lacking two top line players, a skilled young forward with 2nd or 3rd line potential, and two enforcers)

    Defence:
    Kubina Schenn
    Van Ryn Stralman
    ————- ————-

    (They are lacking two defenceman, preferably at least one top line talent and one shut down defenceman)

    Goalies:
    ————-
    Pogge

    (They are lacking a starting goaltender, Pogge needs to be assessed at an NHL level)

    I think those are the players you build around if you are looking to compete in the next few years. They have been fairly consistent and can offer quite a bit for this team going forward. Granted, any player should be traded for the right price. This also only takes into account players currently on the roster.

    ___________________________________

    Trades for the following should be looked at:

    - Players that can get a good return: Toskala, Kaberle
    - Players that might bring in a decent return: Ponikarovsky, Finger
    - Players that a team might acquire to patch holes: Hollweg, Mayers, White, Frogren
    - Players who probably can’t be moved: Blake

    Moore – Given the history, will Burke keep him? He can be useful in a trade and on the roster.

    Joseph – Retired and awarded a position within the organization

    ___________________________________

    - The leafs can swap Kaberle for a young promising forward.
    - Toskala can be shipped away for high draft picks.
    - The rest can be shipped away for depth, draft picks, or players under the radar.

  6.  

    [...] but it does confirm indicate that Burke really likes to acquire players he knows well. As I have said before, Burke isn’t one to make a trade just to dump a player he doesn’t want or need, he [...]

  7.  

    [...] took over the team just over 3 months ago now. Well, everyone except me. Back when Burke was hired I wrote the following: Other than Antropov, I really don’t think anyone is a sure bet to be traded. I don’t think [...]

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