Comments on: THN Rankings – East http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/ Advancing Our Knowledge of Hockey Through Statistical Analysis Mon, 06 Feb 2012 19:00:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Gerald Norton http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/comment-page-1/#comment-3769 Gerald Norton Thu, 21 Aug 2008 22:30:38 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=719#comment-3769 Some teams do win close games, as a style, but this is few and far between, and can only be considered "normal" after a number of occurrences. I guess at the end of the day, I just do not believe MTL will be able to repeat, due to Kovy not producing at the same rate, this effect on others, and a weakening of the PP, and a rookie goalie...but time will tell. Some teams do win close games, as a style, but this is few and far between, and can only be considered “normal” after a number of occurrences.
I guess at the end of the day, I just do not believe MTL will be able to repeat, due to Kovy not producing at the same rate, this effect on others, and a weakening of the PP, and a rookie goalie…but time will tell.

]]> By: Jason Chen http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/comment-page-1/#comment-3768 Jason Chen Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:14:54 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=719#comment-3768 Gerald, even if we subtract Montreal's GF totals by 15-20, they'd still be one of the better offensive teams in the East, and their GF/GA differential would still make them a 95+ point team. Each team is different and plays different styles, and to the casual hockey fan, NJ's +5 GF differential doesn't exactly translate to a 99-point team. MathMan, there is no doubt that Price has the talent and skill to be one of the league's best. One of the things that separate him from other goalies his age is his ability to keep a cool head, although sometimes I just think he's indifferent. Perhaps I mistranslated his body language, but in the series against Boston and then Philadelphia it just seemed like he didn't care. Gerald, even if we subtract Montreal’s GF totals by 15-20, they’d still be one of the better offensive teams in the East, and their GF/GA differential would still make them a 95+ point team. Each team is different and plays different styles, and to the casual hockey fan, NJ’s +5 GF differential doesn’t exactly translate to a 99-point team.

MathMan, there is no doubt that Price has the talent and skill to be one of the league’s best. One of the things that separate him from other goalies his age is his ability to keep a cool head, although sometimes I just think he’s indifferent. Perhaps I mistranslated his body language, but in the series against Boston and then Philadelphia it just seemed like he didn’t care.

]]> By: Gerald Norton http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/comment-page-1/#comment-3767 Gerald Norton Thu, 21 Aug 2008 18:30:45 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=719#comment-3767 By collapse I mean the work load will tire him out, and in the NHL, the smallest stumble can have a huge impact. Kovy is not likely to disappear, but any step back ill have an impact on this teams success, as he is the driving offensive force. Time will tell. By collapse I mean the work load will tire him out, and in the NHL, the smallest stumble can have a huge impact.
Kovy is not likely to disappear, but any step back ill have an impact on this teams success, as he is the driving offensive force. Time will tell.

]]> By: MathMan http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/comment-page-1/#comment-3766 MathMan Thu, 21 Aug 2008 16:13:28 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=719#comment-3766 Keep in mind about Kovalev, since we're talking about his "recent" three year career: his 65 points in 05-06 may not look like much but he was limited to 69 games by a knee injury. Of the three seasons he's spent with the Habs, statistically 06-07 was the aberration, not 07-08 -- he has one seriously underachieving season, and two of 0.94 points per game or more. While expecting him to match last year's exceptional season is a bit much, I don't think 75 points is unreasonable if he plays a full schedule. As for Price, I think his "collapse" is a bit overstated. The Flyers (and by that, I really mean RJ Umberger -- 40%!) had a very hot shooting streak against him and a lot of those goals were deflection goals. Deflections are percentage plays, really, and usually Price is good with those because of size and positioning, but sometimes they'll just go in and often they make the goalie look bad. Meanwhile Montreal ended up uncharacteristically stone cold with their finish despite dominating time of possession -- again, some of that was Biron and some of that was a sudden burst of inaccuracy. Price was weak in spots, no doubt -- and I do wonder how much that slash at his glove in game 2 (was it Hartnell?) really hurt him as his glove hand had hardly been suspect up to that point. But I do think that his "collapse" is being overstated. All that to say I wouldn't read too much in the Flyers series. I really felt that Montreal's weakest game was ironically the one that they won... and I think an argument could be made that each game in the series was lost by the team that carried the play. It was a very perplexing, and very frustrating, five games. Keep in mind about Kovalev, since we’re talking about his “recent” three year career: his 65 points in 05-06 may not look like much but he was limited to 69 games by a knee injury. Of the three seasons he’s spent with the Habs, statistically 06-07 was the aberration, not 07-08 — he has one seriously underachieving season, and two of 0.94 points per game or more. While expecting him to match last year’s exceptional season is a bit much, I don’t think 75 points is unreasonable if he plays a full schedule.

As for Price, I think his “collapse” is a bit overstated. The Flyers (and by that, I really mean RJ Umberger — 40%!) had a very hot shooting streak against him and a lot of those goals were deflection goals. Deflections are percentage plays, really, and usually Price is good with those because of size and positioning, but sometimes they’ll just go in and often they make the goalie look bad. Meanwhile Montreal ended up uncharacteristically stone cold with their finish despite dominating time of possession — again, some of that was Biron and some of that was a sudden burst of inaccuracy.

Price was weak in spots, no doubt — and I do wonder how much that slash at his glove in game 2 (was it Hartnell?) really hurt him as his glove hand had hardly been suspect up to that point. But I do think that his “collapse” is being overstated.

All that to say I wouldn’t read too much in the Flyers series. I really felt that Montreal’s weakest game was ironically the one that they won… and I think an argument could be made that each game in the series was lost by the team that carried the play. It was a very perplexing, and very frustrating, five games.

]]> By: Gerald Norton http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/comment-page-1/#comment-3765 Gerald Norton Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:53:49 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=719#comment-3765 I believed MTL over-achieved in offense, not MGD per point. In @94% of events, GF/GA is predictive of points, that's a very strong correlation. As such, any outliers from the norm have to be considered anomalously, or, for lack of a better term, lucky or unlucky. As for Kovalev, again, having one year define the rule, and ignore it in context of his recent (3 yrs) career is risky. I believed MTL over-achieved in offense, not MGD per point.
In @94% of events, GF/GA is predictive of points, that’s a very strong correlation. As such, any outliers from the norm have to be considered anomalously, or, for lack of a better term, lucky or unlucky.
As for Kovalev, again, having one year define the rule, and ignore it in context of his recent (3 yrs) career is risky.

]]> By: Jason Chen http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/comment-page-1/#comment-3764 Jason Chen Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:14:48 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=719#comment-3764 I don't think there's any stat that is definitely indicative of success. I think all stats are somewhat misleading and when evaluating teams it takes a multiple stats to do so. Using your theory, I don't see how you think that Montreal overachieved? Their GF is second in the league, and their GF/GA differential as noted is one of the best in the league. We won't know how well Kovalev is going to do, but of course we expect every NHLer to enter the season putting up similar numbers to their totals from last year. I also think a large part of any team's success is being able to close out games. Boston was one of the better ones in the league, sitting 11th, while the Sabres were were a mediocre 25th. Also, if you look at net goals minus, the Bruins were a healthy 8th, while the Sabres were again a mediocre 25th. It all depends on what sort of stats you look at, and over an 82 game season I usually don't see luck as the sole reason a team should've or shouldn't have made the playoffs. Statistically speaking, the more games they play, the less luck becomes a factor. I don’t think there’s any stat that is definitely indicative of success. I think all stats are somewhat misleading and when evaluating teams it takes a multiple stats to do so.

Using your theory, I don’t see how you think that Montreal overachieved? Their GF is second in the league, and their GF/GA differential as noted is one of the best in the league. We won’t know how well Kovalev is going to do, but of course we expect every NHLer to enter the season putting up similar numbers to their totals from last year.

I also think a large part of any team’s success is being able to close out games. Boston was one of the better ones in the league, sitting 11th, while the Sabres were were a mediocre 25th. Also, if you look at net goals minus, the Bruins were a healthy 8th, while the Sabres were again a mediocre 25th. It all depends on what sort of stats you look at, and over an 82 game season I usually don’t see luck as the sole reason a team should’ve or shouldn’t have made the playoffs. Statistically speaking, the more games they play, the less luck becomes a factor.

]]> By: Gerald Norton http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/comment-page-1/#comment-3763 Gerald Norton Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:01:41 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=719#comment-3763 Gf/GA is the leading indicator of success, always has been. Buf was #4 in GF, 22nd in GA, and had a GD of +18. They needed 2.80 goals per point, way above average (2.60), but were a goal positive club that still missed the post season...bad luck. WSH was 8th in GF, 19th in GA, and had a GD of +11. They needed 2.60 marginal goals per point, dead average, and earned their post season berth. BOS was the luckiest team in the East, finishing 24th in GF, and 11th in GA, with a GD of -9. They needed only 2.43 goals per point, way below average, but are not known as a defensive giant, and made the post season even with a negative goal diff...luck. I agree completely with your view on BUF, but I would be surprised to see BUF repeat with another positive GF/GA and not improve their winning %. Agreed on paper MON is a top 3-4 team, but for me, the Price and Kovalev factors are huge uncertainties, that are being given passes based upon last years results. I sure don't know what Kovy will do, but if history is ant indication, he's far more likely to become an average top 6 talent then remain a leading offensive force. Gf/GA is the leading indicator of success, always has been.
Buf was #4 in GF, 22nd in GA, and had a GD of +18. They needed 2.80 goals per point, way above average (2.60), but were a goal positive club that still missed the post season…bad luck.
WSH was 8th in GF, 19th in GA, and had a GD of +11. They needed 2.60 marginal goals per point, dead average, and earned their post season berth.
BOS was the luckiest team in the East, finishing 24th in GF, and 11th in GA, with a GD of -9. They needed only 2.43 goals per point, way below average, but are not known as a defensive giant, and made the post season even with a negative goal diff…luck.
I agree completely with your view on BUF, but I would be surprised to see BUF repeat with another positive GF/GA and not improve their winning %.
Agreed on paper MON is a top 3-4 team, but for me, the Price and Kovalev factors are huge uncertainties, that are being given passes based upon last years results. I sure don’t know what Kovy will do, but if history is ant indication, he’s far more likely to become an average top 6 talent then remain a leading offensive force.

]]> By: Jason Chen http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/comment-page-1/#comment-3762 Jason Chen Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:37:25 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=719#comment-3762 Marco, if Gainey and Carbonneau didn't expect Price to carry them far into the playoffs they wouldn't have traded Huet. At the time they felt that Price was comfortable and good enough in pressure situations to lead them to at least the Finals. He crumbled after letting in some weak goals. Buffalo's got a lot of talented forwards, just no clear-cut go-to guy. For some teams it's just easy to decide whose stick to put the puck on when the game's one the line. Buffalo doesn't have that luxury. I still think their team is still too small to go places in the playoffs. They're actually just only one elite centre or defenseman away from vaulting themselves back into division contention. Gerald, I don't feel GF/GA is a ratio that defines how good a team should be. I don't think the Bruins and Hawks got where they were because of good/bad luck. You've said it yourself, "past years of over-achievement." Wouldn't it be the new expectation after several years of over-achievement? By using your GF/GA theory, they'd still be the top teams in the league, with a +40 goal differential. That's on par with the Sharks, who finished second. Did the Ducks get lucky and finish with 100+ points too? I don't think so. The Habs have improved because they got Tanguay, who is a large step up from Ryder, and ton of emerging youngsters. Of course, a lot of their success depends on Price and Kovalev, but on paper their team is top 3 in the East. Marco, if Gainey and Carbonneau didn’t expect Price to carry them far into the playoffs they wouldn’t have traded Huet. At the time they felt that Price was comfortable and good enough in pressure situations to lead them to at least the Finals. He crumbled after letting in some weak goals.

Buffalo’s got a lot of talented forwards, just no clear-cut go-to guy. For some teams it’s just easy to decide whose stick to put the puck on when the game’s one the line. Buffalo doesn’t have that luxury. I still think their team is still too small to go places in the playoffs. They’re actually just only one elite centre or defenseman away from vaulting themselves back into division contention.

Gerald, I don’t feel GF/GA is a ratio that defines how good a team should be. I don’t think the Bruins and Hawks got where they were because of good/bad luck.

You’ve said it yourself, “past years of over-achievement.” Wouldn’t it be the new expectation after several years of over-achievement? By using your GF/GA theory, they’d still be the top teams in the league, with a +40 goal differential. That’s on par with the Sharks, who finished second. Did the Ducks get lucky and finish with 100+ points too? I don’t think so. The Habs have improved because they got Tanguay, who is a large step up from Ryder, and ton of emerging youngsters. Of course, a lot of their success depends on Price and Kovalev, but on paper their team is top 3 in the East.

]]> By: Gerald Norton http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/comment-page-1/#comment-3761 Gerald Norton Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:06:37 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=719#comment-3761 A positive GF/GA ratio, and missing the post season is undeniable bad luck. The Canadiens are better...how? Not trying to be a bahser, at all, I just don't know what they've done to cement past years over-acheivement as the new expectation. IF they do it again, then I'll believe it was not over-acheivement, but a true reflection of the teams abilities. Kovalev is the foundation of that teams success, and that's a bit scary. A positive GF/GA ratio, and missing the post season is undeniable bad luck.
The Canadiens are better…how? Not trying to be a bahser, at all, I just don’t know what they’ve done to cement past years over-acheivement as the new expectation. IF they do it again, then I’ll believe it was not over-acheivement, but a true reflection of the teams abilities. Kovalev is the foundation of that teams success, and that’s a bit scary.

]]> By: Marco http://hockeyanalysis.com/2008/08/17/thn-rankings-east/comment-page-1/#comment-3760 Marco Tue, 19 Aug 2008 02:05:33 +0000 http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=719#comment-3760 I thought Halak only went in net vs the Flyers? Either way I thought he had as good of a post-season as one could of hoped considering how young he is. Regarding Buffalo though, I think Vanek would be wicked with a better centre, I mean Vanke-Roy-Afinogenov was wicked that one season because they were "the 3rd line" (on a very deep team) but they weren't facing top D-men and shut down lines, and while Vanek could be a guy who could go up against a shut down pairing D and forward unit, he'll need better quality linemates to get over that hump. He needs to work on consistency as he takes too many nights off still though. I see him on the same level as a Simon Gagne though, 40 goal scorer. I thought Halak only went in net vs the Flyers? Either way I thought he had as good of a post-season as one could of hoped considering how young he is.

Regarding Buffalo though, I think Vanek would be wicked with a better centre, I mean Vanke-Roy-Afinogenov was wicked that one season because they were “the 3rd line” (on a very deep team) but they weren’t facing top D-men and shut down lines, and while Vanek could be a guy who could go up against a shut down pairing D and forward unit, he’ll need better quality linemates to get over that hump. He needs to work on consistency as he takes too many nights off still though. I see him on the same level as a Simon Gagne though, 40 goal scorer.

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