Mar 042008
 

There are a number of ways of trying to predict where each team will end up in the standings come seasons end. You can simply pro-rate their current records to 82 games or you can do more complex stuff like looking at their difficulty of schedule or calculating probabilites of where they might place but here is a slightly different look that I haven’t seen elsewhere. What I have done is to look at how many games each team has remaining and then predicting that they will play those remaining number of games with the same record as their past number of games. So, if teams continue at the same pace, here is how the eastern conference will look come seasons end.

Team GP Pts GR RP PredPts
New Jersey* 66 80 16 21 101
Pittsburgh 67 81 15 19 100
Boston* 65 76 17 23 99
NY Rangers 66 76 16 23 99
Montreal 67 81 15 16 97
Ottawa 67 80 15 12 92
Buffalo 66 71 16 19 90
Carolina* 68 73 14 17 90
Toronto 67 68 15 20 88
Philadelphia 66 74 16 13 87
Washington 67 70 15 17 87
NY Islanders 67 69 15 15 84
Atlanta 67 65 15 15 80
Florida 68 66 14 13 79
Tampa 65 59 17 15 74

GP=Games Played
Pts=Current Points
GR=Games Remaining
RP = Points in past n games where n=GR
PredPts = Pts + RP
*Division Winners will be seeded 1,2,3

When you re-seed your playoff matchups will end up being:

New Jersey-Buffalo
Boston-Ottawa
Carolina-Montreal
Pittsburgh-NY Rangers

There are a couple interesting matchups there including Pittsburgh-NY Rangers which would be an NBC dream matchup.

One team worth watching is the Philadelphia Flyers who have seemingly turned their game around after their 10 game losing streak. As such I doubt they will finish with just 13 points in their final 16 games. More likely they get 18-20 points putting them in the 92-94 point range which would bump Buffalo out of the playoffs.

Playing a prime spoiler role will be the Toronto Maple Leafs who have most of their games left against playoff teams.

Boston-3
Buffalo-3
Montreal-2
Ottawa-2
New Jersey-2
Philadelphia-2
NY Islanders-1

That is a very tough schedule for the Leafs if they have the playoffs in mind but by playing so many teams they are chasing it does give them an opportunity to make up ground if they continue to play well.

The other team to watch is the Ottawa Senators who have been struggling significantly over the past month or so. The Senators have a tough schedule as well with 3 more west coast games (San Jose, LA and Phoenix) plus 3 games against Boston, Buffalo and Montreal and two against Toronto with single games against Carolina and St. Louis mixed in.

All in all it should be a fun playoff race where if you lose 4 or 5 games in a row you can fall from comfortable in the playoffs to on the outside looking in or vice versa with a 4 or 5 game winning streak.

  5 Responses to “Eastern Conference: If they play like they have…”

  1.  

    Applying the same logic as of March 7th to the outlook for the North Eastern Division would be as follows:

    team games points crnt_pts predicted
    Ottawa 13 9 +81 90
    Toronto 13 17 +70 87
    Boston 15 18 +77 95
    Buffalo 14 15 +73 88
    Montreal 15 18 +83 101

    If a team needs 91 points to get a playoff spot then Ottawa, Toronto, and Buffalo will not make it.

  2.  

    Since two weeks ago, things changed a bit. Ottawa pick up the slack a lot and are playing a bit above 500 now they gained 8 points. Boston dropped 6 points. Montreal is still on the same track. Buffalo and the Leafs gained a point each.

    Team Pts GR RP PredPts
    Montreal 92 7 9 101
    Ottawa 89 8 9 98
    Boston 83 8 6 89
    Buffalo 81 7 8 89
    Toronto 78 7 10 88

    Again, if a team needs 91 points to make the playoffs then Boston, Toronto, and Buffalo won’t make it.

    Also Montreal has already clinched a playoff spot with 92 points.

  3.  

    With one week to go looks like a team will 94 points to make it.

    Interesting notes:
    * Carolina would only make it because they are seeded.
    * NJ would lose a tie breaker with Washington.
    * I hope Ottawa manages to fall apart and get no points in the last 3 games :P

    PTS GR RP PredPts
    Pittsburgh 99 3 6 105
    Montreal 98 3 4 102
    Carolina 90 3 3 93
    Boston 91 3 6 97
    Philadelphia 91 3 5 96
    Ottawa 92 3 3 95
    NY Rangers 91 4 4 95
    Washington 88 3 6 94

    New Jersey 93 4 1 94
    Buffalo 86 3 3 89
    Toronto 82 3 2 84
    Florida 81 3 0 81
    NY Islanders 76 3 3 79
    Tampa Bay 71 4 5 76
    Atlanta 72 3 2 74

  4.  

    Correction.
    Washington would take over the seed from Carolina

    Another interesting point is with a late run for it, looks like Atlanta will beat Tampa Bay to the Stamkos Cup!
    Leafs will still be bottom 10 and hope to get some decent leftovers in the draft.

    Team PTS GR RP PredPts
    Pittsburgh 99 3 6 105
    Montreal 98 3 4 102
    Washington 88 3 6 94
    Boston 91 3 6 97
    Philadelphia 91 3 5 96
    Ottawa 92 3 3 95
    NY Rangers 91 4 4 95
    New Jersey 93 4 1 94

    Carolina 90 3 3 93
    Buffalo 86 3 3 89
    Toronto 82 3 2 84
    Florida 81 3 0 81
    NY Islanders 76 3 3 79
    Tampa Bay 71 4 5 76
    Atlanta 72 3 2 74

  5.  

    Few days left and this is how it looks like now – for the seven eastern teams in the hunt (not clinched and not eliminated)

    # TM: Ps Gr R Prd
    3 CAR 92 01 2 94 *seed
    5 NYR 93 03 3 96
    6 BOS 92 02 2 94
    7 WAS 90 02 4 94
    8 PHI 91 02 2 93

    9 OTT 92 02 0 92
    10 BUF 88 02 4 92

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