Mar 112008
 
Rank 7 Days
Ago
Team AdjWinP SchedStr Power
Rank
1 1 Detroit 0.652 0.510 0.646
2 2 San Jose 0.580 0.525 0.615
3 3 Dallas 0.562 0.523 0.586
4 4 Anaheim 0.556 0.525 0.582
5 5 Minnesota 0.543 0.519 0.559
6 7 Calgary 0.522 0.528 0.553
7 8 Vancouver 0.529 0.519 0.551
8 6 Nashville 0.521 0.519 0.541
9 13 Colorado 0.514 0.524 0.538
10 11 New Jersey 0.572 0.472 0.536
11 9 Phoenix 0.493 0.530 0.533
12 10 Ottawa 0.550 0.473 0.516
13 12 Montreal 0.550 0.471 0.513
14 15 Philadelphia 0.529 0.479 0.507
15 14 Pittsburgh 0.536 0.476 0.506
16 17 NY Rangers 0.521 0.480 0.502
17 21 Chicago 0.471 0.525 0.492
18 19 Buffalo 0.507 0.479 0.489
19 22 Carolina 0.536 0.465 0.489
20 16 Boston 0.507 0.478 0.488
21 18 Columbus 0.471 0.521 0.487
22 20 St. Louis 0.442 0.529 0.480
23 23 NY Islanders 0.443 0.487 0.441
24 25 Edmonton 0.399 0.531 0.432
25 24 Washington 0.471 0.468 0.432
26 28 Florida 0.451 0.471 0.422
27 26 Toronto 0.429 0.482 0.416
28 27 Los Angeles 0.366 0.539 0.409
29 29 Atlanta 0.407 0.473 0.387
30 30 Tampa Bay 0.370 0.477 0.353

AdjWinP is a teams winning percentage when shootouts are considered ties and there are no points awarded for overtime losses
SchedStr is an indication of a teams relative difficulty of schedule
Power Rank is the teams expected winning percentage if team played all .500 teams

Mar 042008
 

There are a number of ways of trying to predict where each team will end up in the standings come seasons end. You can simply pro-rate their current records to 82 games or you can do more complex stuff like looking at their difficulty of schedule or calculating probabilites of where they might place but here is a slightly different look that I haven’t seen elsewhere. What I have done is to look at how many games each team has remaining and then predicting that they will play those remaining number of games with the same record as their past number of games. So, if teams continue at the same pace, here is how the eastern conference will look come seasons end.

Team GP Pts GR RP PredPts
New Jersey* 66 80 16 21 101
Pittsburgh 67 81 15 19 100
Boston* 65 76 17 23 99
NY Rangers 66 76 16 23 99
Montreal 67 81 15 16 97
Ottawa 67 80 15 12 92
Buffalo 66 71 16 19 90
Carolina* 68 73 14 17 90
Toronto 67 68 15 20 88
Philadelphia 66 74 16 13 87
Washington 67 70 15 17 87
NY Islanders 67 69 15 15 84
Atlanta 67 65 15 15 80
Florida 68 66 14 13 79
Tampa 65 59 17 15 74

GP=Games Played
Pts=Current Points
GR=Games Remaining
RP = Points in past n games where n=GR
PredPts = Pts + RP
*Division Winners will be seeded 1,2,3

When you re-seed your playoff matchups will end up being:

New Jersey-Buffalo
Boston-Ottawa
Carolina-Montreal
Pittsburgh-NY Rangers

There are a couple interesting matchups there including Pittsburgh-NY Rangers which would be an NBC dream matchup.

One team worth watching is the Philadelphia Flyers who have seemingly turned their game around after their 10 game losing streak. As such I doubt they will finish with just 13 points in their final 16 games. More likely they get 18-20 points putting them in the 92-94 point range which would bump Buffalo out of the playoffs.

Playing a prime spoiler role will be the Toronto Maple Leafs who have most of their games left against playoff teams.

Boston-3
Buffalo-3
Montreal-2
Ottawa-2
New Jersey-2
Philadelphia-2
NY Islanders-1

That is a very tough schedule for the Leafs if they have the playoffs in mind but by playing so many teams they are chasing it does give them an opportunity to make up ground if they continue to play well.

The other team to watch is the Ottawa Senators who have been struggling significantly over the past month or so. The Senators have a tough schedule as well with 3 more west coast games (San Jose, LA and Phoenix) plus 3 games against Boston, Buffalo and Montreal and two against Toronto with single games against Carolina and St. Louis mixed in.

All in all it should be a fun playoff race where if you lose 4 or 5 games in a row you can fall from comfortable in the playoffs to on the outside looking in or vice versa with a 4 or 5 game winning streak.