Oct 302007
 

Here are the first power rankings of the season. For those unfamiliar with my power rankings, they are algorithm generated based on each teams records and their strength of schedule. If they have a great record but have played an easy schedule they might not be ranked as highly as you might think they should. Remember, it is still early in the season so these rankings are still quite dynamic and can change quickly if a team puts together a couple wins or losses in a row.

Also be sure to check out each teams records against the top ten, middle ten and bottom ten teams in these rankings.

Finally, I hope to get some of my other stats up soon including adjusted hits/giveaways/takeaways stats, player rankings, and my game predictions on PredictHockey.com.

Update (Oct. 31): Fixed a minor problem with accounting for OT and shootout games.

Rank Last Week Team AdjWinP SchedStr Power Rank
1 2 Carolina 0.682 0.638 0.911
2 5 Montreal 0.591 0.622 0.788
3 7 Pittsburgh 0.545 0.626 0.711
4 6 Ottawa 0.900 0.471 0.705
5 8 Columbus 0.650 0.521 0.684
6 1 Minnesota 0.667 0.510 0.634
7 10 Colorado 0.591 0.513 0.620
8 4 St. Louis 0.600 0.506 0.594
9 9 Detroit 0.769 0.451 0.586
10 12 Toronto 0.423 0.596 0.572
11 17 Calgary 0.542 0.482 0.557
12 15 NY Islanders 0.556 0.505 0.554
13 18 Buffalo 0.500 0.531 0.517
14 3 Chicago 0.409 0.547 0.515
15 11 San Jose 0.542 0.475 0.507
16 14 Vancouver 0.417 0.522 0.482
17 19 Boston 0.550 0.449 0.470
18 22 Washington 0.455 0.522 0.469
19 23 Phoenix 0.400 0.509 0.439
20 20 Los Angeles 0.458 0.478 0.437
21 16 Anaheim 0.385 0.511 0.418
22 25 NY Rangers 0.409 0.478 0.400
23 13 Philadelphia 0.667 0.366 0.395
24 21 Dallas 0.409 0.486 0.389
25 24 Edmonton 0.269 0.517 0.313
26 28 Nashville 0.364 0.459 0.311
27 29 Tampa Bay 0.500 0.354 0.291
28 27 Florida 0.318 0.429 0.272
29 26 New Jersey 0.300 0.417 0.246
30 30 Atlanta 0.250 0.443 0.216

AdjWinP is a teams winning percentage when shootouts are considered ties and there are no points awarded for overtime losses
SchedStr is an indication of a teams relative difficulty of schedule
Power Rank is the teams expected winning percentage if team played all .500 teams

  19 Responses to “Power Rankings – October 31, 2007”

  1.  

    When I see a team like New Jersey rated in 29th when they have only played one home game so far, I think we see a problem in the rankings. They make no accounting for home vs away games – especially for teams on long road trips this is significant. I’m sure it usually balances out, but right now New Jersey has basically played th whole season on the road. Expect them to climb when they get some homestands.

  2.  

    I do account for home/road records. Why is NJ 29th? Well they have a bad record (3-6-1) and have played 6 of their 10 games against teams ranked in the bottom 10 in the rankings. I’d expect New Jersey to get better but reality is, they aren’t a good team and if it weren’t for Brodeur they’d be a bad team. Martin-Vishnevski-Greene-Oduya-Rachunek-Mottau is not a very good defense crew. The injuries to Langenbrunner and White really hurt them because they don’t have a lot of experienced depth anymore.

  3.  

    If you read the Toronto press, the Leafs would HAVE to be the worst team in the NHL. Apparently they aren’t. If you check their stats, they’ve played 4 atrocious games, and blown leads a few times. If you throw out the scores from the Carolina and Washington losses, and the Isles win as anomalies, they have 37 goals for and 37 goals against. Which dovetails nicely with their 4-3-3 record in those remaining games. They aren’t as bad as their goals against numbers indicate. But what they are, is amazingly inconsistent. Until they figure out how to play consistently they won’t climb far up the standings.

  4.  

    My point on the Devils is there is a significant difference between a road game or two between every two home games and the extended road trip they had waiting for teir new arena to be ready. I don’t think its something that would be easy to be put into these power rankings, but it is the main reason they are as low as they appear.

  5.  

    Greg, I haven’t actually studied the effect of a lengthy road trip (or home stand) on a teams won/loss rates. Have you or do you know of such a study? Is there a measurable difference in record between say the first 4 games of a road trip and games 5 and beyond?

  6.  

    Steve: In the 10 games you cite as them having 37 goals against, that equals 3.7 goals/game. What about 3.7 goal against per game is not bad?

  7.  

    ur never going to put ottawa first, in anything. your biaas is too strong. thats why i stopped coming to the website.

  8.  

    1. There are no bias in these rankings as they are calculated by an algorithm.

    2. Come back tomorrow when I post this weeks rankings and see where Ottawa is.

    3. If you stopped coming here, how did you know Ottawa wansn’t ranked first and how are you able to post comments such as this one?

  9.  

    1. It’s not about the rankings, it’s about what I know from you so far. You seem to always produce articles claiming that Toronto’s Defense is not to blame, when it clearly was.

    2. Ottawa is the best team in the NHL. I’m not bias in saying that they will not win the cup this year. I love the Sens, but I’m a realist. I realize that Ottawa will lose Redden, and perhaps 1 other player or 2. But I also know that if Toronto’s salaries devoted to their terrible defenseman is obvious

    3. I stopped visiting this cite less, not entirely at all. I want to see more articles that have less of a bias in them regarding the Toronto maple leafs.

    I know tons of ppl that cheer for the leafs, and have great hockey sense and don’t think their team is the centre of the hockey world. On the flip side, I know many many ppl that think the TML are the greatest, and have more hate for Ottawa than passion for their own team. That is sad really.

    That instead of analyzing your team, and trying to see what can be fixed, they defend and defend, and call a fellow Canadian team “chokers” for going to the STANLEY CUP FINAL. Some sens fans are jerks too, but leaf fans in outside toronto, tend to be real jerks.

  10.  

    You seem to always produce articles claiming that Toronto’s Defense is not to blame, when it clearly was.

    Prove it. Prove that that you don’t have an anti-Leaf (defense) bias like 99% of fans and hockey media.

    Ottawa is the best team in the NHL.

    Maybe. Best in the east, probably yes, but I think Detroit is quite possibly better.

    I want to see more articles that have less of a bias in them regarding the Toronto maple leafs.

    Hey, I am a Leaf fan. That is the team I follow the most so yes, you will find a lot of Leaf articles here. Deal with it. As for bias, well, that is your personal opinion though we all have biases to some extent. But I always try to back up all my claims with evidence for or against the Leafs or any other team.

    What articles would you like to see? Make a request and I’ll see what I can do.

  11.  

    David,

    “Prove it. Prove that you don’t have an anti-Leaf (defense) bias like 99% of fans and hockey media.”

    Can 99% of hockey people really be wrong about something so fundamental? I listen to XM and they have people like Denis Potvin, who has nothing to gain and nothing invested in the Leafs or against them and he says the same thing that 99% seem to believe. There are just too many respectable hockey people who believe this on top of what I see every time I watch them.

  12.  

    Just because a lot of people believe the same thing, it does not mean it is right. Once upon a time the majority of people thought the earth was flat. It didn’t make them right. Once upon a time a lot of people thought that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. It didn’t make them right.

    When it comes to the Leafs defense there is ample evidence that they aren’t as horrible as most people seem to believe. I’ve presented some of that evidence here and others have shown it as well (see the defense section of this article on pages 10 and 11).

    Now, what am I to believe? What Denis Potvin says from watching a handful of Leaf games, or what a thorough analysis of the statistics indicate? No offense to Denis Potvin but humans in general have a hard time evaluating things like team defense. A single crucial giveaway sticks out in our mind but we rarely remember the dozens of passes that an opponent didn’t try because of the extended reach of many of the Leafs defensemen.

    Is the Leafs defense perfect or the best in the league? No, but it isn’t near as bad as many people want to portray it to be.

  13.  

    Like others, I don’t see much value in the power rankings in the first quarter of the season.

    My biggest beef — as last year — is with the “Strength of Schedule” (SoS).

    Why do the teams that you beat have a low SoS early in the season? Because you beat them. Why do teams that beat you have a high SoS? Because they beat you. Particularly in the NHL, where 2 or 3 of your first 10 games are against one other team.

    And then there’s Carolina, who in 1st place on the strength of the one bad night the Senators have had all year. Has a bit of a BCS flavour to it. :)

    This becomes far more reliable once we reach the new year….

  14.  

    I wouldn’t go so far as to say they don’t have much value but you are right, they are still in a state of flux this early in the season. You will probably see a fair bit of change with a few teams between last week and this weeks rankings but with every team now having played 13-15 games they will start becoming more and more stable and more and more reliable. Give it another couple weeks I think you will start getting something reasonably good. Certainly better than what many other websites do which don’t consider strength of schedule at all.

  15.  

    David,
    I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the woeful defensive effort of the TO dmen tonight. (sorry, couldn’t help myself; I realize it’s only one game and against arguably the best team in the league) But, 12 odd man rushes is an awful lot. This game was a prime example of shot numbers not telling the story. Even so, I’m going to withhold final judgement simply because one game cannot tell the story of a team. And, in fairness, the forwards hold some responsibility for the chances they gave up.

  16.  

    The Leafs struggled defensively at times tonight but still only gave up 21 shots against one of the better shooting teams. They struggled mightily on the two on ones letting the Senators get the cross pass every time (a cardinal sin in hockey). White had a horrible game and I don’t understand why Maurice would reward him with 24 minutes of ice time like he did. He should be riding the bench for an outing like that.

    In all honesty, I think Maurice is a problem. For some reason he cannot motivate his team because we saw tonight that when the Leafs want to play hard and play focused they can hold the Senators off the score sheet (see second half of both the first and second periods where they dominated) but they just don’t seem to play a full 60 minutes that way. It’s happened numerous times this year and while the players deserve some blame, some blame has to go on the coaches shoulders too. They just aren’t playing with confidence now and they have little or no confidence in their goalies.

  17.  

    You can’t expect the leafs to play at the level of the Ottawa Senators. Everything from the Caliber of the players to the style of the team. Quick neutral zone attack, SPEED, team defense, and most importantly board work. Alfredsson is king of that, as seen in the first goal. FOUR leaf players were surrounding Alfredsson and Heatley, and yet they worked it out to Phillips for the 1st Goal.

    Overall the leafs look O.K. on paper, but their large players like Sundin and Antropov are not quick enough, and sometimes Anti gets pushed off the puck (ALfie knocked him off, and Antropov retaliated and took a penalty). A lot of players like Blake and Wellwood (who i think is great) got beaten to easily on the boards.

    Paul Maurice is the only person I like besides Sundin. Poor Maurice has too deal with the terrible Defense, he might loose a lot of hair this year.

    And Toskala? Saviour of a franchise. I can’t believe what the leafs have done. Trading away good picks and a good prospect in Rask, for two goalies that can’t remain #1 on this team.Yikes.

    Lastly, the fans that boo Daniel Alfredsson. Shameless buffoons who don’t know how amazing Alfie is. He plays for such a small amount, is great off and on the ice, and is a great respectable captain. He is everything you want a player and captain to be. 10 goals, 10 assists, only in the 1st 14 games- He’s defiantly continuing his play from the playoffs.

  18.  

    >>For some reason he cannot motivate his team because we saw tonight that when the Leafs want to play hard and play focused they can hold the Senators off the score sheet (see second half of both the first and second periods where they dominated) but they just don’t seem to play a full 60 minutes that way

  19.  

    “For some reason he cannot motivate his team because we saw tonight that when the Leafs want to play hard and play focused they can hold the Senators off the score sheet (see second half of both the first and second periods where they dominated) but they just don’t seem to play a full 60 minutes that way”

    Or Ottawa took their foot off the gas a bit after stacking up a 4-goal lead.

    You can’t dominate when you’re losing by multiple goals. You just gain some momentum back temporarily.

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