Leafs Defence Doesn’t Suck

Note: I have produced a followup article to this one that corrects some small mistakes I made with respect to counting some PP goals as even strength goals, factors in shot type, and better deals with some biases that are present in the NHL statistics. Feel free to read the article below but be sure to also read the followup article which I would consider a much more reliable evaluation…

May 30, 2007

Don't read too much into Bettman's words

Yesterday Bettman had his state of the NHL press conference and two big topics were covered, or at least generated the most media interest. First is the sale of the Nashville Predators and whether they are going to move. Second is the possibility of an NHL team in Winnipeg. In both instances some in the media are misinterpreting what he said. First let’s talk about Nashville. He did his best…

May 29, 2007

Introducing stats.hockeyanalysis.com

I had been planning on doing this for a while but finally got around to it the past few days. I have set up a new subdomain at stats.hockeyanalysis.com where I am going to post all sorts of statistics. The first statistics are for the 2006-07 season and contain team goals for and against data for players while that player was on the ice. If you then click on a…

May 28, 2007

Stanley Cup Preview and Prediction

Ottawa at Anaheim Ottawa (road) Anaheim (home) Predicted Winner Anaheim (Some) Fair Odds +122 -129 Overall Record 48-25-9 48-20-14 Home/Road Record 23-12-6 26-6-9 Last 10 Games 6-2-2 5-3-2 Past Games None It cannot be argued that the Senators and Ducks have been the best teams in the eastern and western conferences these playoffs. The Senators made it to the Stanley Cup losing just 3 games and the Ducks lost just…

May 26, 2007

Prediction: Predators will struggle to make playoffs next season

As you have probably all heard by now, it seems Jim Basille (of RIM) is planning on buying the Nashville Predators. The thing is, Basille has very little interest in owning the Nashville Predators, he wants to own the Waterloo Blackberries (name made up by me). But this is where things get complicated regarding the Predators lease agreement on their arena. There seems to be an opt out clause in…

May 24, 2007

It's time to abandon the Bettman Plan

For about 15 years the NHL has been doing everything it can to gain a larger American fan base. It moved two Canadian teams to the U.S. and rapidly expanded from 21 teams to 30 teams with the main purpose of bringing hockey to the U.S. south and becoming more of a national sport. There are now teams in Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Tampa, Nashville, Dallas, Phoenix, Anaheim and San Jose…

May 22, 2007

Random Playoff Thoughts

I have lived in Ottawa for almost 7 years now and during that time Senators fans have complained about two things, the rough physical play of the Leafs that resulted in many playoff failures and the boring defensive, wait for a mistake by the opponent, hockey of the New Jersey Devils. Surprisingly, I am not hearing many complaints now that the Senators have decided to play a more physical neutral…

May 15, 2007

Conference Finals predictions

Ottawa at Buffalo Ottawa (road) Buffalo (home) Predicted Winner Buffalo (Some) Fair Odds +118 -122 Overall Record 48-25-9 53-22-7 Home/Road Record 23-12-6 28-10-3 Last 10 Games 6-2-2 7-3-0 Past Games 2006/10/07: Buffalo 4 at Ottawa 3 2006/11/15: Ottawa 4 at Buffalo 2 2006/11/18: Buffalo 1 at Ottawa 4 2006/12/16: Ottawa 3 at Buffalo 1 2007/01/03: Buffalo 3 at Ottawa 6 2007/02/07: Ottawa 2 at Buffalo 3 2007/02/22: Ottawa 5 at…

May 8, 2007