Apr 042007
 

It seems that we as fans just love to lay blame on a variety of players for bad plays that lead to scoring opportunities and every team seems to have one or two players that fans seem to love to pick on. But is it really justified? In an attempt to find the answer to that I decided to take a look at every players giveaways and whether they led to a shot on goal, or worse yet, a goal. In order to eliminate as much of the bias that exists in the giveaway stat that results from game monitors in every city seemingly having a different definition of what a giveaway is, I decided to look only at road giveaways. It probably still isn’t perfect but will eliminate a lot of the problems with the giveaway stat. From there, I summed up how many shots and goals were scored within 8 seconds of the giveaway or until play stopped. Using 8 seconds is pretty arbitrary but seems like a reasonable amount of time to attribute negative results directly to the giveaway.

Let’s start off with the team results. The following table shows how many road giveaways each team committed, how many shots resulted from those turnovers and how many goals resulted from those shots. The table is sorted by shots.

Num Team Road
Giveaways
Road
Giveaway
Shots
Road
Giveaway
Goals
1 Boston 417 64 9
2 Toronto 379 55 11
3 Carolina 344 53 6
4 San Jose 371 53 10
5 Anaheim 349 51 5
6 Buffalo 361 49 8
7 Montreal 339 49 8
8 Vancouver 320 47 7
9 Colorado 309 46 6
10 Minnesota 352 46 8
11 NY Rangers 407 46 7
12 Tampa Bay 327 46 13
13 Ottawa 359 44 5
14 Washington 317 43 8
15 Columbus 278 42 6
16 Detroit 333 41 3
17 Phoenix 346 41 7
18 St. Louis 268 41 5
19 New Jersey 322 40 12
20 Calgary 314 39 7
21 Dallas 284 39 8
22 Atlanta 340 38 5
23 Edmonton 346 38 7
24 Chicago 324 37 8
25 NY Islanders 334 36 6
26 Pittsburgh 369 36 5
27 Nashville 296 35 6
28 Florida 320 33 7
29 Los Angeles 290 33 4
30 Philadelphia 296 33 5

For me I think there are a few surprises. The first is probably how few shots and goals seem to result from giveaways. The most any team has given up is 13 by Tampa which isn’t even one goal by a turnover every 3 games. Another surprise is New Jersey with 12 giveaway goals on only 40 shots. Brodeur is a great goalie but it seems he isn’t so good at making up for mistakes by the players in front of him. Another surprise is Philadelphia. Who’d have thought they would have given up the fewest shots on giveaways. The only thing I can think of is they never have the puck to give it away.

For the record, the save percentage for the above shots on goal is 0.838 which is a fair bit below typical save percentages.

The following table lists all 57 players whose giveaways have resulted in 5 or more shots on goal.

Num Player Team Road
Giveaways
Road
Giveaway
Shots
Road
Giveaway
Goals
1 ZDENO CHARA Boston 61 13 3
2 BRYAN MCCABE Toronto 38 9 2
3 ALEXANDER SEMIN Washington 31 9 1
4 SERGEI ZUBOV Dallas 32 8 3
5 CHRIS CHELIOS Detroit 27 8 1
6 BRIAN ROLSTON Minnesota 28 8 0
7 ANDREW FERENCE Boston 29 8 1
8 SCOTT NIEDERMAYER Anaheim 52 8 0
9 DMITRI KALININ Buffalo 36 7 0
10 PAUL RANGER Tampa Bay 29 7 2
11 NICLAS HAVELID Atlanta 31 7 0
12 SCOTT HANNAN San Jose 21 7 2
13 ANDREW ALBERTS Boston 32 7 0
14 ANDREI MARKOV Montreal 36 7 2
15 HAL GILL Toronto 31 6 0
16 PETER BUDAJ Colorado 23 6 0
17 BRIAN POTHIER Washington 30 6 2
18 ALEXANDER OVECHKIN Washington 39 6 1
19 MIKE GREEN Washington 22 6 0
20 MICHAEL NYLANDER NY Rangers 21 6 1
21 DAN BOYLE Tampa Bay 41 6 2
22 VYACHESLAV KOZLOV Atlanta 35 6 0
23 LUKAS KRAJICEK Vancouver 20 6 0
24 DEREK MORRIS Phoenix 23 6 1
25 CHRISTIAN EHRHOFF San Jose 28 6 2
26 JONATHAN CHEECHOO San Jose 24 6 2
27 PAUL MARA NY Rangers 22 6 2
28 MIKE VAN RYN Florida 23 6 2
29 SHELDON SOURAY Montreal 29 6 1
30 BRENT BURNS Minnesota 19 6 1
31 RYAN MILLER Buffalo 20 5 1
32 BRIAN CAMPBELL Buffalo 29 5 0
33 ERIK COLE Carolina 25 5 0
34 ALEXEI PONIKAROVSKY Toronto 17 5 0
35 KEN KLEE Colorado 21 5 2
36 JAROMIR JAGR NY Rangers 69 5 0
37 DOUG JANIK Tampa Bay 22 5 1
38 MARC-ANDRE FLEURY Pittsburgh 16 5 3
39 JOSEF MELICHAR Pittsburgh 19 5 0
40 RYAN WHITNEY Pittsburgh 37 5 0
41 MATHIEU SCHNEIDER Detroit 20 5 0
42 JASON WILLIAMS Chicago 26 5 0
43 JOSEF VASICEK Carolina 8 5 0
44 KIM JOHNSSON Minnesota 19 5 0
45 ROBYN REGEHR Calgary 17 5 2
46 DENNIS WIDEMAN Boston 21 5 2
47 BRYCE SALVADOR St. Louis 13 5 0
48 VILLE NIEMINEN St. Louis 9 5 1
49 MATTHEW CARLE San Jose 27 5 1
50 PATRICK RISSMILLER San Jose 19 5 0
51 BRAD LUKOWICH New Jersey 14 5 2
52 PATRIK ELIAS New Jersey 25 5 0
53 ANTON BABCHUK Carolina 13 5 0
54 JASON CHIMERA Columbus 15 5 1
55 BRAD STUART Calgary 28 5 0
56 ALEX KOVALEV Montreal 24 5 2
57 CARLO COLAIACOVO Toronto 18 5 1

Well, looks like Chara is easily running away with the lead in this statistic with 13 shots given up on 61 turnovers. Otherwise, not a lot of surprises really. There are a lot of defensemen near the top of the list with probably makes sense since they are more likely to turn over the puck in their own zone and less likely to have someone else backing them up. They also get the most ice time so inherently should have more opportunities to give away the puck. It is also interesting that a few goalies made the list.

  4 Responses to “Scoring opportunities from turnovers”

  1.  

    Those are definitely some very interesting statistics David. As a Sens fan, one of the things I’m most surprised at is the fact that not a single Ottawa player is on the second list – especially in light of how people keep harping on Spezza’s horrible giveaways, one would think he was responsible for numerous GA.

    And Chara being at the top… he really shouldn’t be for how much he makes.

  2.  

    I was waiting for a Senators fan to point out that there are no Sens on the list. For the record, Schubert, Meszaros, Heatley, Kelly and Volchenkov have all contributed 4 shots against because of a giveaway. I guess it is true that the Senators are playing more of a team game this year. :)

  3.  

    Doesn’t looking only at Road Giveaways still skew the stat since teams play a varied number of road games against different teams. I.E. Teams in the North East would all play 4 road games in Ottawa, but nobody else would play more than 2… etc. I understand the desire to limit bias, but it’s still inherent in this stat. Why not just run the same adjustment algorithm you used in your giveaway statistics and then look at the goal totals with those for comparison.

  4.  

    I could, but it would take more work. :) I wanted something quick and easy. It is not perfect but I don’t think the differences would be significant.

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