Apr 032007
 

Tuesday’s results:
Islanders 3, Rangers 2 (SO)
Leafs 3, Flyers 2 (OT)
Tampa 3, Carolina 2
Montreal 2, Boston 0

Updated Standings:
6. NY Rangers (92) – vsMTL, atPIT
7. Tampa Bay (92) – vsFLA, atATL
8. Montreal (90) – atNYR, atTOR
9. Toronto (89) – atNYI, vsMTL
10. NY Islanders (86) – vsTOR, atPHI, atNJ
11. Carolina (86) – vsATL, vsFLA (eliminated)

To Get In:
NY Rangers: A Rangers win or a Leafs loss (in regulation or OT)
Tampa: A Tampa win or an OT loss, or a loss by the leafs (in regulation or OT)
Montreal: Getting a point against the Leafs on Saturday (win or OT/SO loss), or beating Rangers Thursday with the Leafs losing to Islanders.
Toronto: These combinations will get the Leafs in the playoffs:

  • Winning both games in regulation. One of Tampa, Montreal or the Rangers would be eliminated pending other results
  • Leafs win both games but one or both of them in OT and either Tampa loses both in regulation or Rangers lose both with at least one of the two losses in regulation.
  • Lose to Isles Thursday, Rangers defeat Canadiens in regulation and Leafs defeat Canadiens in regulation Saturday. Result: Leafs in, Montreal out.

Islanders: Must win all 3 games with Montreal getting no more than one point or go 2-0-1 including beating the Leafs in regulation and Montreal losing both their games in regulation.
Carolina: Eliminated.

I think those are all the scenarios. If I missed anything let me know.

The other eastern conference race is the battle for tops in the Atlantic division between Pittsburgh and New Jersey and the battle for home ice advantage in the 4 vs 5 seed matchup between Ottawa and either Pittsburgh and New Jersey. The standings currently are:

New Jersey (104) – at Phi, vs NYI
Ottawa (103) – vs Pit, at Bos
Pittsburgh (101) – at Ott, vs NYR

New Jersey clinches top spot in the Atlantic and second seed bu picking up a point against either the Flyers or Islanders. That should happen so the battle is between Pittsburgh and Ottawa for home ice in the first round. For Pittsburgh to gain home ice they need to beat Ottawa Thursday, and then do one point better against the Rangers than whatever Ottawa does against the Bruins. i.e. Ottawa loses, Pittsburgh just needs an OTL. Ottawa gets an OTL, then Pittsburgh must win. That is unless Ottawa get an OTL vs Pittsburgh on Thursday. In that case the Penguins need to beat the Rangers with the Bruins beating the Senators.

  9 Responses to “Carolina eliminated, nobody clinches”

  1.  

    Your analysis is incorrect.

    2 scenarios for Isles to make the playoffs:

    Isles: Win last 3 and finish with 92 pts. OT wins are okay (even vs. Toronto)

    Montreal: Loses to both NYR and Tor, gaining no more than 1 pt, finish with 91 pts.

    or

    Isles: Go 2-0-1. Must beat Toronto in regulation and finish with 91 pts.

    Montreal: Must go 0-2, no points.

    From Islander Mania

  2.  

    Right. I was thinking the Leafs would win the tie breaker vs the Isles but it would be the Islanders getting the tie breaker.

  3.  

    In your third scenario for the Leafs to get in you have them losing to the Isles on Thursday and beating Montreal in regulation… at most that gives them 92 points with an OT/SO loss to the islanders. That would tie the Rangers in points provided they lose both of their games in regulation – and since they have more wins they get the tie-breaker, so they’re in, not the Leafs. The Leafs have to beat the Habs to get in no matter what. The Isles game is a must win if the Habs beat the Rangers. Other than that your predictions made sense to me.

  4.  

    Steve, you are correct. I had it in my mind that the Leafs would win the tie breaker vs the Rangers but that is only if they tie with 93 points with the Leafs winning both games and the Rangers losing both but one of them in OT/SO. But, if they tie at 92 points, the Rangers would get in. I have added another scenario though. Leafs win one or both games in OT and either Tampa loses both in regulation or Rangers lose both with at least one of the two losses in regulation.

  5.  

    Montreal can get in if they beat the Rangers and then pick up a single point against the Leafs. In otherwords, the Leafs can still potentially be eliminated if they win Saturday’s game against Montreal in OT or SO.

  6.  

    Yup. I have clarified that an OT loss to the Leafs will get them in.

  7.  

    What about the battle for the 3rd seed between Atlanta & Tampa Bay?

  8.  

    Yes, I guess there is still that battle but Tampa should worry more about securing a playoff spot first. It is also an easy battle to keep track of. To retain stop spot in the southeast Atlanta just needs to match whatever Tampa does. So, if Tampa gets 2 wins then Atlanta needs 4 point in their 3 games. If Tampa gets 3 points, Atlanta needs 3 points, etc. Simple as that.

  9.  

    […] HockeyAnalysis.com has a recent post on possible scenarios. […]

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