Game Predictions – 1/20/2007

Last day of games before the all-star break. The premier games on the day are Boston-Ottawa, Montreal-Buffalo, Minnesota-Dallas, and Edmonton-Calgary.

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
New Jersey -278 Philadelphia 164 New Jersey Strong
NY Rangers -109 Atlanta 108 NY Rangers Some
Washington -133 Florida 125 Washington Some
Boston -108 Ottawa 108 Ottawa Some
Montreal -150 Buffalo 133 Montreal Good
Pittsburgh -106 Toronto 105 Toronto Some
Nashville -261 Chicago 161 Nashville Strong
Minnesota 121 Dallas -127 Dallas Good
Carolina -137 Tampa Bay 127 Carolina Some
Colorado -127 Detroit 121 Colorado Some
Edmonton -157 Calgary 136 Edmonton Good
Los Angeles -104 Phoenix 104 Phoenix Some
San Jose -200 St. Louis 150 San Jose Strong

This article has 5 Comments

  1. This is probably a dumb question, but me and some guys from work were not able to come up with a clear anwser to this question.

    What is considered to be a “”scoring chance”. Becasue it is always like 21 shots and 11 scoring chances, and I was just trying to figure out what made it a scoring chance.

  2. As far as I know scoring chance is not an official NHL statistic and has no real definition of what is or isn’t a scoring chance. My guess is it is something made up by broadcasters but I wouldn’t put a whole lot of credability in it as it is highly subective.

  3. Even if it isn’t credible, I would believe the point behind the discrepancy in the numbers is obviously due to the fact that not all shots are legitimate scoring chances. A clear shot from 50+ feet shouldn’t go in on an NHL goalie. While they occasionally do, the shot is still not normally considered a “scoring chance”. Perimeter shots that goalies SHOULD save are usually not considered scoring chances.

  4. Saying they aren’t credible might be a bit harsh, but they are very subjective and should be taken with a grain of salt. I am not sure scoring chances is any better of an indicator of a teams play than shots would be. Over the course of a game I would think they are fairly highly correlated.

  5. I would like to see the NHL keep track of something like this, even though I know they are quite subjective and would vary quite a bit from rink to rink.

    Shots that miss the net or pucks that sit on the ice with an open cage juuust out of reach of a forward are not counted as shots but are very good scoring chances.

    The New Jersey Devils currently rank 7th in the NHL with 28.5 shots per game. But what I really notice when I watch them play is that they rarely give up quality scoring chances. The vast majority of the shots are from wide angles, not from the high slot with traffic in front of Martin Brodeur. Obviously Brodeur also has plenty to do with it, but I’ve long felt that even with a more average netminder, the Devils would still be very difficult to score against.

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