Dec 212006
 

There are 10 games on the schedule and while none are prime, must see games, many are fairly intriguing. Atlanta-Pittsburgh will feature a lot of top end talent in Hossa, Kovalchuk, Crosby, Malkin and others. Ottawa-Tampa will also feature a lot of skill but two teams who just can’t quite put it all together. Buffalo-Nashville could prove to be a very interesting inter-conference matchup between hiqh quality teams. And finally, San Jose-Dallas meet in what is probably a race for second in the Pacific division behind Anaheim.

Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Boston -113 Vancouver 112 Boston Some
Atlanta -143 Pittsburgh 130 Atlanta Good
Montreal -276 Philadelphia 163 Montreal Strong
Ottawa -131 Tampa Bay 123 Ottawa Some
Florida -112 NY Rangers 110 Florida Some
St. Louis 129 Los Angeles -142 Los Angeles Good
Nashville 124 Buffalo -133 Buffalo Good
Colorado 100 Calgary -100 Calgary Some
Phoenix 121 Edmonton -127 Edmonton Good
San Jose -202 Dallas 150 San Jose Strong
Dec 202006
 

Wow. What a crazy night in the NHL last night with 10 of the 11 road teams winning. That really wsn’t good for the winning percentage of my algorithm. Lets hope for better tonight. But honestly, I could see any of these games going either way.

Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Detroit -211 Columbus 152 Detroit Strong
Chicago 104 Nashville -104 Nashville Some
Anaheim -153 Dallas 134 Anaheim Good
Dec 192006
 

There is a lot of parity in the NHL this season, especially in the east where 8 teams have between 32 and 38 points and 13 teams between 28 and 43 points. It has become almost as close in the west. Because of this a short win streak or losing streak can still cause you to jump or drop several spots in the power rankings. This weeks biggerst movers up the rankings are Vancouver (15 to 9) and Toronto (20 to 13). Going the other way are Carolina (8 to 12), Atlanta (10 to 15), Minnesota (13 to 19) and Tampa (19-24).

I have also added pages (see left side menu) that list each teams record against the top 10 teams in these power rankings, middle 10 teams in these power rankings and bottom 10 teams in these power rankings. Generally, if a team has a real hard time beating teams in the top 10, it will be real tough for them to be ranked among the top teams.

Rank Last Week Team AdjWinP SchedStr Power Rank
1 1 Anaheim 0.757 0.484 0.695
2 2 Detroit 0.661 0.500 0.669
3 3 San Jose 0.706 0.485 0.653
4 4 Buffalo 0.672 0.490 0.641
5 9 Montreal 0.594 0.504 0.603
6 7 Calgary 0.567 0.509 0.583
7 6 Edmonton 0.531 0.517 0.577
8 5 Dallas 0.591 0.493 0.570
9 15 Vancouver 0.515 0.521 0.568
10 11 Nashville 0.636 0.466 0.550
11 12 Washington 0.547 0.492 0.526
12 8 Carolina 0.500 0.506 0.519
13 20 Toronto 0.500 0.508 0.517
14 14 New Jersey 0.531 0.485 0.508
15 10 Atlanta 0.529 0.488 0.504
16 16 Boston 0.483 0.510 0.503
17 21 Ottawa 0.485 0.504 0.499
18 18 NY Islanders 0.500 0.488 0.488
19 13 Minnesota 0.422 0.531 0.487
20 17 NY Rangers 0.485 0.492 0.483
21 25 Colorado 0.455 0.506 0.460
22 22 Pittsburgh 0.484 0.480 0.453
23 23 Los Angeles 0.382 0.535 0.451
24 19 Tampa Bay 0.409 0.512 0.434
25 26 Chicago 0.484 0.468 0.428
26 24 Florida 0.386 0.512 0.415
27 27 Phoenix 0.328 0.521 0.362
28 28 Columbus 0.371 0.475 0.336
29 29 Philadelphia 0.266 0.506 0.283
30 30 St. Louis 0.203 0.528 0.235

AdjWinP is a teams winning percentage when shootouts are considered ties and there are no points awarded for overtime losses
SchedStr is an indication of a teams relative difficulty of schedule
Power Rank is the teams expected winning percentage if team played all .500 teams

Dec 192006
 

We have a full schedule tonight with some good game to keep an eye on. The top 2 teams in the north east meet each other as Montreal visits Buffalo. Buffalo hasn’t been quite as dominant the past couple weeks so this game could go either way. Another big northeast division game has Zdeno Chara returning to Ottawa for the first time as the Bruins take on the Senators. It’s hard to predict this game as the Senators either play really really good or really really bad (i.e. lose 6-0 to Nashville then beat Buffalo 3-1). Other good games to keep an eye on are Washington-Tampa, New Jersey-Atlanta and Minnesota-Vancouver.

Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Buffalo -129 Montreal 122 Buffalo Some
NY Rangers -120 NY Islanders 117 NY Rangers Some
Philadelphia 133 Carolina -149 Carolina Good
Pittsburgh -236 St. Louis 157 Pittsburgh Strong
Washington -147 Tampa Bay 132 Washington Good
Toronto -151 Florida 133 Toronto Good
Ottawa -120 Boston 117 Ottawa Some
New Jersey -122 Atlanta 118 New Jersey Some
Minnesota -105 Vancouver 105 Vancouver Some
Edmonton -150 Colorado 133 Edmonton Good
Los Angeles -136 Calgary 126 Los Angeles Good
Dec 182006
 

Just 2 games tonight, one good, one not so good. The good game has Calgary visiting Anaheim. Anaheim is listed as a ‘good’ favourite but I actually think this game could go either way. Calgary has a good chance to win this game. The other game has Detroit playing the lowly Blue Jackets. I say lowly but they have played a fair bit better lately going 5-2-1 in December. Still, this should be Detroits game to win or lose.

Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Columbus 138 Detroit -163 Detroit Strong
Anaheim -145 Calgary 131 Anaheim Good
Dec 172006
 

Three games on the schedule, but only one that would interest me at all: New Jersey at New York Rangers. It seems that those two teams are likely to be battling it out for the division lead come seasons end.

Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
St. Louis 148 Nashville -193 Nashville Strong
NY Rangers -120 New Jersey 117 NY Rangers Some
Chicago 126 Colorado -136 Colorado Good
Dec 162006
 

The best games to watch tonight are Ottawa at Buffalo, Crosby playing in Montreal, and a big Pacific division matchup between San Jose and Anaheim.

Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
New Jersey 105 Detroit -106 Detroit Some
Los Angeles 105 Dallas -105 Dallas Some
Boston -154 Florida 135 Boston Good
Buffalo -166 Ottawa 140 Buffalo Good
Toronto 117 NY Rangers -121 NY Rangers Some
Montreal -217 Pittsburgh 153 Montreal Strong
NY Islanders -109 Atlanta 109 Atlanta Some
Washington -153 Philadelphia 134 Washington Good
Columbus -103 Chicago 103 Chicago Some
Tampa Bay -150 Carolina 133 Tampa Bay Good
Nashville -312 St. Louis 168 Nashville Strong
Phoenix 122 Calgary -128 Calgary Good
Vancouver -133 Minnesota 125 Vancouver Some
San Jose -109 Anaheim 108 Anaheim Some
Dec 152006
 

The NHL keeps track of a large variety of statistics, many of which are subjective in nature. The most subjective might be the hits statistic. What really is a hit? There is the pound the opposing player through the glass hit and then there are the almost incidental bumps which depending on severity may be classified a hit by some and not a hit by others. And looking at the stats, there is no real standard because some stats keepers in some cities seem to give players credit for a ton of hits while other cities are far more stingy in crediting players with a hit. One way to eliminate the bias teams will have by playing in their home arena 41 times a year is to just look at their road hits as a more unbiased indication of how frequently they hit opposing players.

In the table below you will find each teams home and road hits per game, as well as the visiting teams hits per game and the average of all visiting teams road hits per game (exp. hits). The hit bias gives an indication of how many more or fewer hits are credited to players in games in that city which is calculated by (home/road + visitor/exp.visitor)/2.

Team Home Road Visitor Exp.Vis HitBias
Anaheim 13.26 22.07 8.84 15.52 0.59
Atlanta 18.07 18.94 13.13 17.16 0.86
Boston 13.56 17.69 11.88 16.01 0.75
Buffalo 15.43 15.47 14.57 16.95 0.93
Carolina 28.77 14.79 24.38 16.41 1.70
Calgary 16.80 16.00 14.33 15.30 0.99
Chicago 16.71 16.06 12.86 15.82 0.93
Columbus 17.36 16.00 10.43 14.48 0.91
Colorado 9.81 8.87 14.12 15.98 0.96
Dallas 24.44 15.06 26.38 15.47 1.66
Detroit 18.93 12.27 18.53 16.07 1.32
Edmonton 15.59 16.79 15.00 15.12 0.96
Florida 20.69 20.17 14.50 16.94 0.95
Los Angeles 19.30 15.08 17.40 16.09 1.18
Minnesota 11.44 11.07 10.69 14.96 0.85
Montreal 26.18 17.36 18.47 15.81 1.35
Nashville 14.33 13.74 11.50 14.84 0.90
New Jersey 14.29 17.44 13.21 16.54 0.81
NY Islanders 23.75 20.77 16.69 16.15 1.10
NY Rangers 23.40 19.00 22.00 16.44 1.28
Ottawa 27.77 16.60 20.77 15.40 1.52
Philadelphia 14.19 15.53 13.81 16.52 0.87
Phoenix 19.81 15.47 15.38 16.34 1.11
Pittsburgh 18.31 13.79 16.50 16.83 1.14
San Jose 18.13 18.33 14.67 14.71 0.99
St. Louis 14.94 16.93 12.94 15.47 0.86
Tampa Bay 16.18 11.20 18.24 17.74 1.19
Toronto 22.81 16.00 19.56 16.92 1.29
Vancouver 16.76 14.60 22.35 16.12 1.27
Washington 18.31 17.71 18.25 16.89 1.06

As an example, Anaheim gets credited with 13.26 hits per home game and 22.07 hits per road game. Teams visiting Anaheim get credited with 8.84 hits pre game when playing in Anaheim and they average 15.52 hits per game in all of their road games. Those sets of numbers indicate a huge difference between how Anaheim game monitors credit hits than the rest of the league. Overall, hits are credited to players in Anaheim at a rate about 40% less than the average other city. On the opposite end of the spectrum,teams playing in Carolina get credited with 70% more hits than the average city.

So, armed with this information we can adjust team and players hit totals accordingly. Below is a table showing each teams adjusted hit totals which should give a much more realistic representation of a teams level of physical play.

Num Team Hits Adj. Hits
1 Anaheim 583 744
2 Florida 694 697
3 Atlanta 593 592
4 NY Islanders 650 592
5 San Jose 602 573
6 NY Rangers 674 549
7 Ottawa 693 546
8 Montreal 688 545
9 Toronto 621 522
10 Washington 541 521
11 Chicago 491 520
12 Los Angeles 582 514
13 Columbus 499 513
14 Phoenix 549 508
15 St. Louis 476 501
16 New Jersey 479 494
17 Edmonton 500 490
18 Boston 447 486
19 Carolina 655 483
20 Philadelphia 460 483
21 Calgary 476 467
22 Dallas 632 451
23 Buffalo 479 449
24 Vancouver 504 443
25 Pittsburgh 486 442
26 Nashville 433 442
27 Detroit 468 400
28 Tampa Bay 443 387
29 Minnesota 349 371
30 Colorado 290 285

The above table can also be found by clicking on the link in the left menu and that table will be updated manually. You will also find each players adjusted hits in the left menu as well. I will be updating these tables semi-regularly (hopefully at least once a week) so you can all see how your favourite teams and players are doing in the physical play department.

Dec 152006
 

We have four games on the schedule tonight all have a certain amount of intrigue as 3 of them are division matchups and the other sees coach Paul Maurice return to Carolina where he coached for a number of years.

Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Carolina -132 Toronto 124 Carolina Some
Pittsburgh -113 NY Islanders 111 Pittsburgh Some
Atlanta -122 Washington 118 Atlanta Some
Colorado -132 Edmonton 124 Colorado Good
Dec 142006
 

Here are the predictions for tonights games. The game to watch tonight I think is Ottawa at Nashville. This could be a very fun game to watch as both teams have a fair bit of skill. I like Nashville to win. The Boston-New Jersey game could be quite good too. Phoenix has played a bit better the last couple weeks but I am surprised that they are the predicted winner against Columbus. I think Columbus will likely win that game.

Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Boston -117 New Jersey 114 Boston Some
Buffalo -189 Florida 147 Buffalo Strong
Montreal -151 Tampa Bay 133 Montreal Good
Nashville -140 Ottawa 128 Nashville Good
Chicago 123 Detroit -131 Detroit Good
Dallas -142 NY Rangers 129 Dallas Good
Edmonton -136 Minnesota 126 Edmonton Some
Phoenix -130 Columbus 123 Phoenix Some
Vancouver -107 Calgary 107 Calgary Some
San Jose -182 Los Angeles 145 San Jose Strong