Dec 312006
 
Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Minnesota 116 Anaheim -119 Anaheim Good
Detroit -185 Los Angeles 146 Detroit Strong
Columbus 100 Chicago -100 Chicago Some
Carolina -237 Philadelphia 157 Carolina Strong
Calgary -179 Edmonton 144 Calgary Strong
Dallas -148 San Jose 132 Dallas Good
Dec 302006
 
Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Buffalo -153 Atlanta 134 Buffalo Good
Toronto -129 Ottawa 122 Toronto Some
NY Islanders -170 New Jersey 141 NY Islanders Strong
NY Rangers -106 Washington 106 Washington Some
Tampa Bay -130 Montreal 123 Tampa Bay Some
St. Louis 127 Colorado -138 Colorado Good
Nashville -122 Boston 118 Nashville Some
Phoenix 132 San Jose -148 San Jose Good
Edmonton -128 Vancouver 122 Edmonton Some
Dec 292006
 
Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Carolina 138 Anaheim -161 Anaheim Strong
Ottawa -130 NY Rangers 123 Ottawa Some
New Jersey -119 Washington 116 New Jersey Some
Pittsburgh -100 Toronto 100 Toronto Some
Florida 112 Montreal -114 Montreal Good
Minnesota -244 Columbus 159 Minnesota Strong
Chicago 103 Boston -104 Boston Some
Dallas -122 Nashville 118 Dallas Some
Colorado -205 St. Louis 151 Colorado Good
Calgary -241 Los Angeles 158 Calgary Strong
Dec 282006
 
Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Buffalo -152 Carolina 134 Buffalo Good
Columbus 102 Detroit -102 Detroit Some
Tampa Bay -307 Philadelphia 167 Tampa Bay Strong
Edmonton -163 Los Angeles 138 Edmonton Good
San Jose -220 Phoenix 154 San Jose Strong
Dec 272006
 
Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Washington 130 Montreal -143 Montreal Good
Ottawa -169 NY Islanders 140 Ottawa Strong
Pittsburgh -100 Atlanta 100 Atlanta Some
Florida -144 Philadelphia 130 Florida Some
Detroit -220 Minnesota 154 Detroit Strong
Colorado -146 Dallas 131 Colorado Good
Vancouver -111 Calgary 110 Calgary Some
Dec 262006
 

Here are this weeks power rankings.

Rank Last Week Team AdjWinP SchedStr Power Rank
1 1 Anaheim 0.770 0.484 0.716
2 2 Buffalo 0.662 0.499 0.653
3 4 San Jose 0.706 0.478 0.643
4 3 Detroit 0.652 0.487 0.630
5 5 Montreal 0.618 0.509 0.630
6 6 Calgary 0.562 0.506 0.576
7 9 Edmonton 0.515 0.513 0.557
8 7 Dallas 0.574 0.488 0.550
9 8 Nashville 0.629 0.466 0.549
10 15 Boston 0.516 0.520 0.548
11 10 Vancouver 0.486 0.516 0.526
12 14 Carolina 0.514 0.503 0.521
13 12 Atlanta 0.528 0.496 0.517
14 16 Toronto 0.486 0.518 0.517
15 11 Washington 0.530 0.496 0.515
16 18 New Jersey 0.530 0.485 0.506
17 21 NY Islanders 0.516 0.486 0.498
18 17 Minnesota 0.439 0.525 0.497
19 19 Ottawa 0.458 0.515 0.485
20 24 Tampa Bay 0.443 0.517 0.473
21 20 Colorado 0.471 0.500 0.465
22 25 Florida 0.419 0.517 0.453
23 13 NY Rangers 0.458 0.491 0.450
24 26 Chicago 0.470 0.474 0.432
25 22 Pittsburgh 0.471 0.474 0.428
26 23 Los Angeles 0.361 0.526 0.414
27 27 Phoenix 0.328 0.515 0.355
28 28 Columbus 0.379 0.480 0.354
29 30 St. Louis 0.250 0.515 0.275
30 29 Philadelphia 0.250 0.509 0.267

AdjWinP is a teams winning percentage when shootouts are considered ties and there are no points awarded for overtime losses
SchedStr is an indication of a teams relative difficulty of schedule
Power Rank is the teams expected winning percentage if team played all .500 teams

Dec 262006
 
Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Buffalo -154 Washington 135 Buffalo Good
Carolina -139 Florida 128 Carolina Some
Atlanta -133 Tampa Bay 124 Atlanta Some
Columbus 121 Boston -127 Boston Good
Chicago 104 Dallas -104 Dallas Some
Toronto -126 Minnesota 120 Toronto Some
New Jersey -144 Pittsburgh 130 New Jersey Good
NY Islanders -134 NY Rangers 125 NY Islanders Some
Nashville -242 St. Louis 158 Nashville Strong
Calgary -133 Vancouver 124 Calgary Some
Los Angeles -141 Phoenix 129 Los Angeles Some
San Jose -109 Anaheim 108 Anaheim Some
Dec 232006
 

It’s that last night of games before the 2 day Christmas break so I will take this time to thank everyone for dropping by my site to ceck out my predictions and other stuff and I wish you all a Merry Christmas. Enjoy the holidays.

Oh, and here are tonights predictions.

Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Philadelphia 132 Ottawa -149 Ottawa Good
Boston -105 Montreal 105 Montreal Some
Toronto -122 Washington 118 Toronto Some
NY Islanders -171 Columbus 141 NY Islanders Good
Atlanta -177 New Jersey 143 Atlanta Strong
Tampa Bay -127 NY Rangers 121 Tampa Bay Some
Florida -151 Carolina 133 Florida Good
St. Louis 148 Buffalo -194 Buffalo Strong
Nashville -161 Los Angeles 137 Nashville Good
Minnesota 103 Detroit -104 Detroit Some
Dallas -120 Edmonton 116 Dallas Some
Colorado -187 Chicago 146 Colorado Strong
Phoenix 139 Anaheim -165 Anaheim Strong
San Jose -135 Calgary 126 San Jose Some
Dec 222006
 

We have 5 games on the schedule and while there are no marquis games there are some interesting ones as most of them are fairly evenly matched teams. New Jersey is going to be another test game for the Capitals. If Washington’s success so far is for real and they want to be considered playoff contenders they have to beat teams like New Jersey every now and again. The same can be said for the Islanders against Carolina. The other interesting game is an old Norris division matchup between Toronto and Chicago. I remember watching these two teams battle it out in the 1980’s when they had a pretty good rivalry going. It’s too bad Bill Wirtz has run what was a great franchise into the ground (hence why we should all rebel against pay per view).

Home Team Fair
HTOdds
Road Team Fair
RTOdds
Predicted Winner Confidence
Washington -123 New Jersey 119 Washington Some
Carolina -127 NY Islanders 121 Carolina Some
Columbus -116 Vancouver 114 Columbus Some
Detroit -154 Minnesota 135 Detroit Good
Chicago -101 Toronto 101 Toronto Some
Dec 212006
 

Over the past week I have found some free time to update the player ranking algorithm. Not only have I improved the algorithm but I have also fixed a bug/flaw in the code which overly penalized players for giving up short handed goals. The end result is that players who play a lot on the penalty kill should see their defense ratings rise, sometimes quite dramatically. I know there was concern about Lidstrom’s (and others) poor defensive ratings last time so now they are fixed. Lidstrom now gets a very respectably 1.42 defensive rating. You can view all qualifying players rankings by clicking on the appropriate links in the menu on the left.

You will still find some ‘strange’ results in the rankings, like Kobasew’s 3.96 defensive rating, but these will fall off as the players play more ice time. Kobasew gets the high defensive rating because he has had a league low (of players with 350 minutes of ice time) 3 goals scored against his team while he has been on the ice. That’s pretty impressive but probably has more to do with luck than his raw defensive ability. Most of the odd rankings you will find in my rankings can also be found in the rankings recently created by JavaGeek and JavaGeek uses a fairly different algorithm than I do so it appears that those oddities aren’t due to flaws in the algorithm. Generally, ratings significantly over 1.50 are probably not sustainable but overall I am fairly pleased with the results.