I debated whether I should post these power rankings or not because on the surface they don’t seem to make any sense. How could 9-0 Buffalo be ranked 12th overall? But finally I decided that I would post them with some explanation of what we are seeing.
First off, you will notice that the western conference teams dominate the top 10 or so positions. The reason for this is because the western confernce has a dominant record (14-5-3) against the eastern conference and since strength of schedule is a significant factor in the algorithm to calculate these power rankings most of the western conference teams get a big boost. Although I do see the western conference as being the better conference it is unlikely that they will continue to win at the same rate versus the eastern conference so over time things should settle down a bit.
So with that said, it is best to consider the power rankings as how eastern conference teams rank against eastern conference teams and how western conference teams rank against other western conference teams.
Now, some of you migh tthen point out that Atlanta and Washington are ahead of undefeated Buffalo in the standings and that doesn’t make sense either. Well, Buffalo has 3 shoot out wins which the algorithm considers as ties so Buffalo’s record is, for the purposes of calculating these rankings, 6-0-3. Atlanta’s record is 7-1-1 so in 9 games they have an equal number of points. So the difference comes in the fact that Atlanta has played a tougher schedule. As for Washington, they are getting a huge boost from playing one of the toughest schedules of any eastern conference team largely because they have played Minnesota once and Atlanta twice and going to overtime or a shoot out in all 3 of those games.
So I guess my final word of advice is to take these power rankings with a grain of salt. While there is some useful information held within them it is still pretty early in the season for them to be real accurate. That said, the prediction algorithm, which is loosely based on these rankings, has performed fairly well so they might not be completely out of whack.
|Rank||Last Week||Team||AdjWinP||SchedStr||Power Rank|
AdjWinP is a teams winning percentage when shootouts are considered ties and there are no points awarded for overtime losses
SchedStr is an indication of a teams relative difficulty of schedule