Apr 142006

Just one game tonight but it is an important game. Should Tampa lose the playoff hopes of Atlanta and Toronto improve dramatically. A Tampa win and they dim dramatically.

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Carolina -139 Tampa Bay 128 Carolina Some
Apr 132006

Another busy night on the NHL schedule with 13 games set to be played and 4 important games to be played. In the east, Atlanta plays Washington and Toronto takes on the NY Islanders. I have pretty much counted Atlanta and Toronto out of the playoff hun for a week or so now but with just 3 or 4 games left we have to still consider the possibility that either one of them could still make it. Why? Because Tampa has horrible goaltending and could easily lose 2 or even all 3 of their final games. Here are the remaining games for each team:

Tampa: Carolina (Friday), Carolina (Saturday) and Washington (Tuesday)
Atlanta: Washington (tonight), Boston (Saturday), Washington (Monday), Florida (Tuesday)
Toronto: Islanders (tonight), Ottawa (Saturday), Buffalo (Sunday), Pittsburgh (Tuesday)

Atlanta clearly has the easiest schedule as they don’t play a single playoff team while Tampa has a couple of tough games against Carolina and Toronto has tough games against Ottawa and Buffalo. Tampa currently holds a 4 point lead on Atlanta and a 5 point lead on Toronto but with more wins than either team they should get the advantage of winning any tie breaker situation so that is a definite plus for them. I think if Tampa can manage to win 1 of their final 3 games they will make the playoffs but should they happen to lose all three there is a good chance they will booking tee-times next week.

In the west things are pretty much down to a 2 team race for the final playoff spot with Edmonton currently holding a 1 point advantage over Vancouver. Edmonton plays tonight against Anaheim and Monday against Colorado while Vancouver plays tonight against San Jose and Saturday against Colorado.

(Note: Los Angeles is not officially eliminated but they need to win all 3 of their games and Edmonton to lose both their games and Vancouver to not get more than a single point. Certianly possible but highly unlikely)

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Boston -138 Montreal 127 Boston Good
NY Islanders 110 Toronto -111 Toronto Some
Atlanta -169 Washington 140 Atlanta Good
Columbus -152 St. Louis 134 Columbus Good
Ottawa -187 Florida 146 Ottawa Strong
New Jersey -111 Philadelphia 110 New Jersey Some
Pittsburgh 129 NY Rangers -141 NY Rangers Good
Nashville -127 Minnesota 121 Nashville Some
Chicago 134 Detroit -151 Detroit Good
Calgary -127 Colorado 121 Calgary Some
Edmonton -110 Anaheim 109 Anaheim Some
Phoenix -116 Los Angeles 114 Phoenix Some
San Jose -135 Vancouver 126 San Jose Some
Apr 122006

Here are this weeks power rankings. Teams on the move are San Jose (up 3 to 6th), Montreal (up 3 to 10th), Toronto (up 3 to 12th), and Minnesota (up 3 to 17th) while Edmonton (down 3 to 13th) and Nashville (down 3 to 14th) have slipped back.

Rank Last Week Team AdjWinP SchedStr Power Rank
1 1 Ottawa 0.671 0.495 0.664
2 2 Detroit 0.699 0.479 0.631
3 4 Buffalo 0.615 0.496 0.615
4 5 Calgary 0.601 0.511 0.611
5 3 Dallas 0.589 0.517 0.610
6 9 San Jose 0.564 0.515 0.586
7 6 Colorado 0.563 0.515 0.583
8 7 Anaheim 0.557 0.517 0.579
9 8 Carolina 0.614 0.471 0.555
10 13 Montreal 0.532 0.504 0.549
11 12 Vancouver 0.513 0.516 0.536
12 15 Toronto 0.513 0.508 0.535
13 10 Edmonton 0.500 0.518 0.525
14 11 Nashville 0.563 0.483 0.521
15 14 Los Angeles 0.481 0.524 0.517
16 16 Philadelphia 0.564 0.472 0.516
17 20 Minnesota 0.463 0.523 0.498
18 17 Phoenix 0.449 0.530 0.496
19 18 NY Rangers 0.538 0.472 0.495
20 21 Atlanta 0.500 0.485 0.489
21 19 Tampa Bay 0.513 0.480 0.484
22 22 New Jersey 0.513 0.472 0.472
23 23 Boston 0.400 0.516 0.435
24 24 Florida 0.443 0.485 0.432
25 25 NY Islanders 0.404 0.485 0.395
26 26 Columbus 0.378 0.504 0.386
27 28 Washington 0.346 0.496 0.352
28 27 Chicago 0.333 0.507 0.342
29 29 St. Louis 0.295 0.510 0.307
30 30 Pittsburgh 0.282 0.495 0.286

AdjWinP is a teams winning percentage when shootouts are considered ties and there are no points awarded for overtime losses
SchedStr is an indication of a teams relative difficulty of schedule
Power Rank is the teams expected winning percentage if team played all .500 teams

Apr 122006

There are just 2 games on the schedule tonight but the Vancouver-San Jose game is an extremely important game. If San Jose wins they clinch a playoff spot. If Vancouver wins they pull into a tie with 8th place Edmonton which is all they really need for a playoff spot as Vancouver has more wins than the Oilers (wins being the first tiebreaker).

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Buffalo -136 Montreal 126 Buffalo Some
Vancouver -111 San Jose 110 San Jose Some
Apr 112006

Busy schedule again tonight with 12 games set to be played. The two most important games are Edmonton at Detroit and Colorado vs Phoenix. Edmonton currently sits 2 points ahead of 9th place Vancouver while Colorado is just 3 points ahead. Both teams would like to add to that. An Edmonton win or even an over time loss would also officially eliminate the Los Angeles Kings from the playoffs. Also worth watching are the Anaheim and Nashville games. It appears most likely that these two teams will meet in the first round of the playoffs but home ice advantage is still up for grabs as Anaheim sits just 2 points back of Nashville. With Vokoun now out for the season Nashville’s hopes for a playoff run were just reduced significantly and losing home ice advantage would be another kick in the head.

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
NY Rangers -156 NY Islanders 136 NY Rangers Good
Philadelphia -216 Pittsburgh 153 Philadelphia Strong
Carolina -146 New Jersey 131 Carolina Good
Toronto -146 Florida 131 Toronto Good
Ottawa -183 Boston 145 Ottawa Strong
Tampa Bay -122 Atlanta 118 Tampa Bay Some
Detroit -144 Edmonton 131 Detroit Good
St. Louis 127 Nashville -138 Nashville Good
Minnesota -172 Chicago 142 Minnesota Good
Dallas -190 Columbus 147 Dallas Strong
Colorado -199 Phoenix 149 Colorado Strong
Calgary -178 Anaheim 144 Calgary Strong
Apr 102006

Not much time for analysis but the big game of the night is Anaheim at Vancouver. A Vancouver win will pull them into a tie with Edmonton for 8th while an Anaheim win will pull them to within 2 points of 4th place Nashville and Anaheim a shot at home ice advantage in round 1 of the playoffs.

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Boston -156 Washington 136 Boston Good
Montreal 101 Ottawa -101 Ottawa Some
Vancouver -112 Anaheim 111 Vancouver Some
Phoenix -150 San Jose 133 Phoenix Good
Apr 092006

Here are tonights game predictions. There are a couple of games to watch today. With Vanocuver winning last night the games of Edmonton vs St. Louis and San Jose vs Dallas have more significance. Also worth watching is Colorado and Minnesota as this game could be Theodore’s debut game with the Avalanche. The Avalanche have shown themselves to be a very good team but Peter Budaj is not going to be the goalie to lead them to playoff success so we all need to watch and see if somehow Jose Theodore can regain his form of previous years.

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Florida -150 Tampa Bay 133 Florida Good
St. Louis 152 Edmonton -211 Edmonton Strong
New Jersey -110 NY Rangers 109 New Jersey Some
San Jose -162 Dallas 138 San Jose Good
Colorado -101 Minnesota 101 Colorado Some
Apr 082006

We have a busy schedule today with 13 games set to be played. With the east pretty playoff teams pretty much set, the big games are in the west. Los Angeles plays Anaheim and Vancouver playing Calgary are big games as the Kings and Canucks try to get wins against better teams in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. A Los Angeles loss and you can pretty much count them out of the playoffs as they would sit 4 points back with 3 games left (and San Jose would have 6 games left). Vancouver isn’t in quite as critical position but a loss would mean they would probably have to win their final 4 games to make it in.

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Boston -108 NY Rangers 107 NY Rangers Some
Colorado -234 St. Louis 157 Colorado Strong
Los Angeles -109 Anaheim 108 Anaheim Some
Montreal -146 New Jersey 131 Montreal Good
Ottawa -191 Buffalo 147 Ottawa Strong
NY Islanders -201 Washington 150 NY Islanders Strong
Philadelphia 115 Toronto -118 Toronto Some
Atlanta -146 Carolina 131 Atlanta Good
Columbus 124 Detroit -132 Detroit Good
Tampa Bay -292 Pittsburgh 165 Tampa Bay Strong
Nashville -264 Chicago 162 Nashville Strong
Vancouver -153 Calgary 134 Vancouver Good
Phoenix 101 Dallas -101 Dallas Some
Apr 072006

It looks like the eastern conference playoff teams are all set now as Tampa has a 6 point lead over Atlanta with just 6 games left. It would take Tampa losing probably 5 of 6 to give Atlanta or Toronto a chance and I don’t think that will happen. So it is all about playoff position now. Also with Ottawa losing 5 of their last 7 games the conference lead is not back up for grabs as Carolina is just 2 points back. Tonight they play Washington for the 5th and final time in the past 2 weeks and 3rd in a row. Looking at the standings it should be an easy game for the Hurricanes but the Caps have played them tough in those 5 games.

That leaves the west where there still is a playoff race and there are 2 big games tonight. The most important game is Edmonton against Chicago. An Edmonton win would put them 4 points ahead of Vancouver and 5 ahead of Los Angeles. It will also allow them to leap frog over Colorado and San Jose into 6th spot.

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Washington 126 Carolina -135 Carolina Good
Florida -186 Pittsburgh 146 Florida Good
Detroit -198 Columbus 149 Detroit Strong
Buffalo -145 Philadelphia 131 Buffalo Good
Chicago -112 Edmonton 110 Chicago Some
Calgary -211 Minnesota 152 Calgary Strong
Apr 062006

Eastern Conference Big Game of the Night: Atlanta at Tampa. Tampa pretty much eliminated Florida’s chances by winning on Monday. Tonight they hope to do the same to Atlanta. An Atlanta win keeps their slim playoff chances alive. These teams play one more game next Tuesday and both these games are must wins for Atlanta.

Western Conference Big Game of the Night: San Jose at Los Angeles: Los Angeles sits 2 points behind 8th place San Jose and 3 behind 7th place Edmonton. They need this win to keep them in the hunt because they also have fewer games left on the schedule. I am actually going to disagree with my algorithm and say San Jose will win this game.

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Boston -147 Toronto 132 Boston Good
NY Rangers -217 NY Islanders 154 NY Rangers Strong
Ottawa -107 Montreal 106 Ottawa Some
Tampa Bay -179 Atlanta 144 Tampa Bay Strong
St. Louis -100 Nashville 100 St. Louis Some
Minnesota -110 Edmonton 109 Edmonton Some
Anaheim -115 Dallas 113 Anaheim Some
Los Angeles -159 San Jose 137 Los Angeles Good