Game Predictions – 4/2/2006

It was a bit of a crazy night for hockey last night including 4 shutouts, 3 of which no one could have really expected. Those three were Toronto shutting out Buffalo 7-0, Washington shutting out Ottawa 1-0, and Los Angeles shutting out Dallas 1-0. The other shut out was Montreal 2-0 over Boston as Huet got his 7th shut out of the season and 3rd in a row over the Boston Bruins (he’ll likely try for a 4th straight over Boston on Tuesday).

The big game today is Vancouver at Anaheim though it is seemingly becoming less important as Los Angeles and San Jose are falling a bit behind the 7th place Canucks and 5th place Ducks. But a win will certainly provide some extra breathing room.

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Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
NY Islanders -138 Philadelphia 127 NY Islanders Good
Minnesota 103 Detroit -104 Detroit Some
Pittsburgh -113 New Jersey 111 Pittsburgh Some
Anaheim -125 Vancouver 120 Anaheim Some

This article has 14 Comments

  1. Strong: NONE
    Some: NJD, ANA
    Upset: PHI
    Home: MIN

    Bet: NYI, MIN

    Dave, I tell you that upsets are tipical in the beginning and at the end of the season. The favorites might be preparing for the play-off nowdays.

    Useful info about valuebetting (

    1. Big favourites are rarely good objects for valuebets, due to the bookies’ fear for large payouts if the favourites should win. Big names like Man Utd, Juventus, Inter, Milan, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, are rarely given good prices by the bookies, because the bookies know that the common punter bet on the big names (as they often seem to win their games, and they have a huge following).
    2. As a result of the above, real value is often found in the form of underdogs. The bookies know that punters are more likely to bet on favourites, and therefore prices are generally higher on underdogs.
    3. Valuebetting could be a good strategy in the beginning and the end of a season. Results are often more unpredictable in the first and last quarter of the season, and punters should perhaps make use of this “fact” by adopting to the valuebetting strategy during early authumn and late spring.

  2. Mr Hockey, DET seems to be relaxing just before play-off. They lost to CBJ and CHI recently. MIN beat VAN. So, my algorithm says there is no favorit in this pair. In such situation I simply choose home team, because statistics for the last 10 days is that 14 of 21 (67%) “home” teams won in regulation time (what I love much!) in such matches “without” favorite.

  3. By the way, look at the standings table. The same could be said about DET, CAR, OTT, DAL. So, this teams are more likely to give up there games in the next 2 weeks just before the play-off. I believe, noone is looking forward to be e.g. injuried for the play-off?

  4. Keif, the reason you stated for picking Minnesota over Detroit is similar to how Los Angeles beat Dallas last night. Friday’s shootout loss to Anaheim clinched them a playoff spot, so they decided to rest Mike Modano and Marty Turco for Saturday. Carolina is resting guys like Gerber, Brind’amour, and Staal, which could be part of why they lost last night to Atlanta (I think). With less than 10 games, and if a team has already clinched a good seeded playoff spot, they’re more likely to sporatically play their better players.

  5. Kevin, good eye. I agree that ALL favorites tend to play weaker at the end. Probably I should implement this “fact” into my algorithm in the next season. 🙄

  6. keif i disagree in that this is a “fact” its more of a trend. Trends tend to change quiet often tho. As you can see Detroit beat Minnesota as anticipated. I felt Detroit was a smart bet. Detroit will be a smart bet tomarrow as well @ Calgary. Detroit being underdog tomarrow , not by much tho…Calgary getting the home advantage. Detroit is 9-3-3 on the 2nd night of a back to back game. One of the best records in this catergoy in the NHL. I have a feeling all the algo on this page will predict Calgary to win due to the back to back game factor for Detroit. Personally I feel that is not really a disadvantage because Detroit is really good back to back games. Yes the NHL trend is only aprox 40% of teams win on the 2nd night of a back to back game but “fact” is good teams often win the 2nd game and bad teams lose them. ie Toronto is 12-4-3, Detroit is 9-3-3 on 2nd nights and a team like St. Louis is now 1-13-2. You cant generalize that Detroit will lose cuz you put them in the 40% caterogy looking at that trend based on NHL totals. Bottom line is Detroit is extremely good back to back games and I think they are expected to win tomarrow as they did today.

  7. Perfect example of what i just said Keif and David is look at today and there was 3 teams in action who played last ngiht: Philadelphia, New Jersey, and Anaheim. All 3 teams won today! So in reality the 40% win total by team playing back to back and winning on the 2nd night does not apply to today. Anaheim is now 7-4-1, Philly 8-7-0 and New Jersey is 4-9-1 on 2nd nights of a back to back game. What im saying is that the 40% cant be applied to all games and to all teams. That would be UNFAIR and BIAS. You have to look at each game individually and make a wise decision based on those 2 teams in play, streaks, trends, season series, whos injured, record on back to back games all the available facotrs, not just solely make a pick against that team based on the 40% win total.

  8. Towards the end of the season, you will see that upsets are more likely to occur. Upsets are imminent, but you can’t predict when head coaches decide to alter their lineup to rest players.

  9. Mr. Hockey, according to those numbers both Philadelphia and New Jersey play worse on the second game in 2 nights than they do the rest of the season and Anaheim is about the same. I don’t automatically say that the Flyers chances of winning today are 40%, I say that the chances of winning today are less than they would had they not played yesterday, which is the proper thing to do. Despite Detroit’s good record in the second game in 2 nights they still have a worse record in the second game in 2 nights than they do the rest of the season (9-3-3 = 1.4 points per game which is lower than the almost 1.5 points per game they get overall). Toronto is an anomoly that is difficult to explain.

    It’s kind of funny really because not long ago I was getting criticized for rarely predicting underdogs and now I am getting criticized for not picking favourites (i.e. Flyers over NY Islanders, NJ over Pittsburgh).

  10. I’ve got your point, Mr. Hockey. But, you know, to make money I have to think about what my bookmaker is thinking about what punters are thinking. No, my computer votes for CGY over DET tomorrow at home. Apparently, the today DET’s win did not impress him too much.

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