Game Predictions – 3/26/2006

I am short on time this morning so not much time for analysis. But then, there aren’t any games with huge playoff implications anyway. At least not like last nights Montreal-Toronto or Edmont0n-Vancouver. But there are some predicted close games. Take a look at the fair odds for Chicago-San Jose and Pittsburgh-Montreal. I could see Pittsburgh upsetting Montreal but I have my doubts that Chicago will upset San Jose.

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Dallas -129 Calgary 122 Dallas Some
Chicago 100 San Jose -100 Chicago Some
New Jersey -153 Toronto 134 New Jersey Good
Pittsburgh 101 Montreal -101 Pittsburgh Some
Colorado -131 Edmonton 124 Colorado Some

This article has 22 Comments

  1. Actually, I consider Colorado/Edmonton to be a playoff race game. But last night, not much was resolved in the Western Conference playoff chase. Vancouver was the only team to lose, while Anaheim, San Jose, Edmonton, and Los Angeles each gained 2 points on the Canucks. Granted Anaheim and San Jose had fairly easy opponents while Edmonton and LA had to work for their wins. Edmonton had a huge 3-2 win against Vancouver last night, while the Kings came from down 4-3 to start the 3rd to score 3 goals in a span of 1:47 to win 6-4. But the injury woes continue for my hometown team, losing Derek Armstrong and Jeremy Roenick to injuries over the course of the game. I heard last night on ESPNEWS said that Roenick is done for the year, while the Los Angeles Times just says he will undergo an MRI and CT scan Monday when the team is in Vancouver. Y’all are probably thinking “losing Roenick isn’t going to hurt them”.

    Dallas, Pittsburgh, Colorado, San Jose, New Jersey

  2. Last night was shocking! Tons of upsets. On Proline Hockey Pools I did brutal. It happens tho. On Proline Pools last night nobody with a ticket hit perfect. 5 tickets won $20,000 with 11/12 correct. Perfect example why to play Proline Hockey Pools even for $5. Never know when you might get lucky and hit a huge pot.

    Today’s Picks:

    -San Jose
    -Pittsburgh (Crosby’s become a Habs killer) OT or SO
    -Toronto (best record in the NHL on 2nd nights on a back to back game.

  3. Very lucky day from my point of view. +$7.15, only 5 cents smaller than the maximum increase on March 19th. WSH over (+550); that was delicious.

  4. Keif.
    I actucally only had 3 tickets in total… 2 Proline hockey Pools and 1 normal proline ticket. No matter which games i decided to box i would have lost either way. Way too many upsets to correctly guess last night.
    On one ticket i had tor/mtl boxed (i was thinking MTL all day..bad box), i boxed NYR/TB ( was leaning towards NYR..good box), boxed EDM/VAN (was leaning towards VAN…good box) and NSH/LA (was thinking LA as well..bad box). So i basically wasted 2 boxed games on that ticket… still wouldnt have helped if I chose other games to box. The other Pools ticket i boxed TOR/MTL and NYR/TB as well. I lost $105 on this night. Not the most ive lost in a given night. Hopefully i have better luck on the Monday-Tuesday hockey Pools, and the Wednesday-thursday Hockey Pools.

  5. I have a proline ticket for tonight as well… $5 wager on..

    Dallas to win (CORRECT)
    Toronto to win
    Toronto/New jersey over 6.5 goals
    Edmonton to win
    Pittsburgh/Montreal tie (shootout)
    Pittsburgh/montreal over 6.5 goals

    Total if won :$800

  6. 1. Oh, I see. I mean thoose 5 tickets won with 11/12 correct. Can’t find Hockey Pools address to check their site.

    2. That’s interesting, Mr. Hockey, you can bet in one proline ticket on two events from one game? The winner and Total might be correlated. Say, TOR can win probably if and only if over 6.5 goals. 😛

  7. I don’t think it’s a wise idea to play pro pools. Let’s assume that you have a superior knowledge of which teams are going to win – say a 65% chance of successfully predicting the winning team. This is pretty much in line with David’s algorithm and we are also being a bit optimistic here. If there are 10 games, and you bet on the favourite to win in each game, the odds of them all winning are 1.34%. At $5 a ticket the expected amount of money you need to pay to get a winning ticket is $371. I am not sure how the splitting works, but if you pick all favourites, chances are there will be lots of people to split with.

    If you pick 2 underdogs to win, the odds of all winning goes down to .04%, and the expected amount of money you need to pay to get a winning ticket is $1281. If you pick 4 underdogs to win, it is $4417.

    On saturday, according to this site 6 underdogs out of 12 won. Using 65% success rate on each game, the expected amount of money to pay would be $36064. Much more than the $20000 payoff. It’s just not very good returns. I would rather play the lottery so at least I woudln’t be second guessing myself.

  8. Steve D..i disagree with you. I think Proline Hockey Pools is a fantastic return. Personally I never bet all favs as you suggest…it doesnt pay. I study the NHL and Proline Hockey Pools very often. I always bet underdogs along with boxed games. I know all about the payouts if all favs win and/or the payout on several underdogs chosen. The reason I like Hockey Pools is because anyone can have a good night. Its the NHL, you never really know who wins. Too me playing the lottery is a complete waste of money. Betting on sports at least you have some knowledge of who and whats involved and can a guess on the outcome. In the lottery all your doing is guessing 6 or 7 numbers. Its 100% completely random. There is zero skill and zero knowledge involved.
    Sports gambling is entertainment and should be treated just as that. I know I have more fun playing Proline Pools than I do playing 6/49 or Super 7.

  9. Damn! As you can see above..I only lost the Pittsburgh/Montreal game tonight. I guessed a shootout and it ended 6-5 in regulation. It was close. 4/5 in total on this site and 5/6 on Proline ain’t too bad. There’s always tomarrow.

  10. Mr. Hockey: I agree with you that betting hockey games is more interesting than the 6/49 or Super 7. But the point is, you will get better risk/reward ratios at an online sports book than at a government run Proline because sports books return 80-90% of revenues while Proline returns closer to 50%.

  11. Steve. Your theories on Proline Pools just dont work. I can’t speak for everyone but i can speak for myself and the close friends I play Pools with and we most definetly hit about 70% on most tickets if not better. Some nights worst but not often unless a night like last night occurs. Even than… if 5 underdogs win like last night, if you pick your boxed games correctly it could of been you hitting 13/13 and scoring large. For example… say you picked the Flyers to upset Ottawa and boxed out CLB/DET, BUF/BOS, WSH/CAR and EDMN/VAN and the rest favourites according to Proline..than you just hit 13/13. Most people play favourites yes…peaople like me …no. Your theory was good in logic but you cant generalize what other people do betting their tickets because youd be really suprised. Theres been nights where like 6-7-8 upsets happened and at least 1 if not more people hit perfect. You never really know.

  12. If you know any online betting books that im not aware of yet where i can risk minimum $5 for chosen 10-11-12-13-14-15 striaght up winners and have a shot for up to $100,000 Id love to know it. For the risk/reward ratio I havent seen anything that payouts of anywhere as much as Proline Hockey/Football Pools.

  13. Mr Hockey, you could win $1000 instead, if you bet on exact score in the PIT/MTL game. The odds for score 5-6 is equal to 200!

  14. keif id rather win more personally. On Hockey Pools I noticed payouts usually depend on 3 factors : how many games on a given ticket; how many upsets occur; and how many people hit a perfect ticket.
    The more games on a ticket (ie. most Ive seen is 15 games) the less likely someone hit perfect and/or if some one wont be many peple. The more upsets that occur, chances are the fewer people who hit perfect. And, or of course if you happen to be the only person who hit perfect…your walking away with at least $80,000 that Ive seen minimum paid out to tickets with 12 games or more.
    Bottom line in my opinion is I personally like Proline Pools. I love the payouts if you have a lucky night. The bets facotr about it is that you can box games. This helps alot. You box correct games, it makes things a lot easier.

  15. Mr. Hockey, be careful not to get mezmerized by the big pay day. That is how they get you hooked. The odds of you hitting that are extremely tiny. First you have to pick 12 or so games correctly, then you have to hope no one else does resulting in a split pot. For that to happen you would have to pick a lot of upsets and for all those upsets to come true, the odds are extremely poor. And if that happens the odds are that you would win a large pot on a 12 team parlay (though not all sports books allow you to parlay that much) at an online sportsbook.

  16. Yes David I agree. The odds of hitting perfect are slim. Depending on how one plays. Chosen favs is fine, but doesnt payout as we all know. Personally I stay away from odds, HTODDS, and RTODDS as much as possible. Too me odds just make my picks more bias. I personally just study stats, lots of trends, streaks, gut instinct and other factors. As I said, I cant speak for anyone else but myself, Ive already hit perfect on 2 Hockey Pools and I dont intend to stop there. With a little hockey knowledge, maybe boxing out a few correct upset games, and luck on your side…anyone can cash out large. I aim for the large payday as always. I may gamble more money than some people on it but I up alot from what I spend personally so I cant complain. I have to do whats been working for me personally. I never discourge people in the system or online betting books they use. I just encourge people to play Hockey Pools because its a nice payout for the minimum $5 one can risk.

  17. its hard to talk about the games themselves cuz everyone has their own opinions and stats and trends they throw on here. You hear so many different views you dont know what to believe.

  18. can anyone here explain to me how does Pro line works..
    I live in Montreal and I dont know how they opperate.

    over here lotto quebec sanctions its proline equivalent called Pari Sportif
    but you cant bet on single games (bummer)..
    minimum is three game parlays, and the max is 6

    for three games its 5 times what you bet
    for 4 games its 8 times what you bet
    for 5 games its 15 times what you bet
    and for 6 games (the maximum) its 25 times what you bet

    they all have to be correct,
    there’s two sections for hockey..
    one is point spreads, and one is odds (ex:
    Detroit 1,30 8,55 3,35 Saint Louis

    the middle part used to be for ties.. but since the new rules have been enforced they are for shootouts, so if you pick one of those the game has to go to a shootout for your prediction to be correct, so just say you pick three shootouts and put 2$ on it.. (which iv done often with Dallas)

    for example in Tonights games if you were to choose a shootout between detroit and the blues, tampa and carolina and san jose and columbus..
    for 2 bucks you could win $1149. 65

    anyway, maybe one of you guys can run down how proline works for me..

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