Game Predictions – 3/24/2006

Last night is a perfect example why I should never doubt my algorithms predictions. My algorithms predictions went 7 for 7 last night but me thinking I know more than my algorithm bet on 4 games, 3 of which (Toronto, Washington and San Jose) were counter to my algorithms predictions and as a result I lost money on the night. No more. I am going to be more conservative with my bets once again.

We have another 7 games on the schedule tonight and while there don’t have the same impact on the playoff races as last nights games I think we have several games that could go either way. New Jersey-Boston, Florida-NY Rangers, Buffalo-Ottawa, and Anaheim-Nashville are all games which I think could go either way. An interesting prediction by the algorithm is Columbus over Calgary. It seems like a bold prediction but who am I to doubt my algorithm the day after it went 7 for 7.

My bets:

Boston +170
Anaheim (-135)
NY Islanders (-145)

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Columbus -101 Calgary 101 Columbus Some
New Jersey 120 Boston -126 Boston Some
Pittsburgh 119 NY Islanders -123 NY Islanders Some
Florida -109 NY Rangers 108 Florida Some
Buffalo -112 Ottawa 110 Ottawa Some
Dallas -321 Chicago 168 Dallas Strong
Anaheim -121 Nashville 117 Anaheim Some

This article has 26 Comments

  1. last night I went 6 for 7 not bad…good night had a good couple weeks winning twice on pro-line..

    boy the algorythm sure is scary today….I don’t like alot of the u said though dave as soon as u doubt it , it smacks u in the face…lol

    i’ll go with

    cal, nj, nyi, rangers, buffalo, dallas, anahiem.

    i think ottawa will lose tonight without chara..buffalo is good.

  2. i think Columus and Florida are just home-team picks. I think Calgary and NY Rangers should win, but this is why we watch sports: the opposite of what is expected usually occurs.

  3. yeah last nights algorithym was awesome..

    didnt you bet on the atlanta game though.. ?

    well, I went 5 and 2
    I picked Nj over Atlanta (i keep betting against atlanta.. wishfull thinking being a habs fan) what a fucking comeback..
    I like kovalchuk for the Rocket Richard Trophy…

    my second pick being Washington upsetting Tampa
    .. another comeback

  4. hey dave i signed up at that site u have listed I got the 25$

    I bet 5 on pitts tonight with +1.5

    but i don’t understand how it works?

    it said it cost 11.50 to win 5 $ ???

    it wouldn’t let me make two 5 $ bets with the 25 $ they gave me it said it came over 30$???

    can u help with this please?



  5. I am not familiar with how wagerweb does things but there should be a way to specify whether you want to bet (risk) $5 or win $5. Since the odds on Pittsburgh +1.5 are -230 it will cost you $11.50 to win $5. Look around and see if there is an option to swtich from ‘to win’ to ‘to risk’ $5.

  6. David, good job on your algorithm last night hitting 7 for 7. It was all 7 favourites predicted to win and all 7 favourites did win last night, doesnt happen to often but it does happen. Personally, if your system hit for example 7 for 7 having taken say 7 upsets and it hit them all, than Id personally say Id never doubt your algorithm as well.

    Tonights Picks:

    -Calgary over Columbus
    -New Jersey over Boston
    -NY Islanders over Pittsburgh
    -Florida over NY Rangers
    -Buffalo over Ottawa
    -Dallas over Chicago
    -Nashville over Anaheim

    Ray Emery has played in 11 striaght Senator games since the Olympic break and since Hasek’s injury. Question is, when in the world is Emery going to have a day off and let Morrison start? Can’t be tongiht, can it? Its Buffalo! Tomarrow night Ottawa plays Philadelphia also… the Sens cant start Emery back to back nights and 13 striaght games…..can they??????????

  7. wow ..I just realized that Florida and Buffalo are favourites on the lines tonight. My only upset being Nashville over Anaheim

  8. Ok, I just signed up for an account so I could check it out. When you are on the betting page there are the radio buttons at the top.

    Wagered Amount
    Risk Amount
    To Win Amount

    Make sure Risk Amount is selected, not the other two.

  9. I like your choices, I got Bos PL+1.5 to hedge on Sweater retirement. Got Anahiem ML like you, but took Pit PL+1.5, think close game with NYI most likley winning by one. All the best on your selections.

  10. sam i too took the 1.5 for pitts. they tied the last 2 games into a shootout..

    thanks dave for the info

  11. Having two upsets (CGY over STL, MTL over TOR) and 3 OTs yesterday, I lost $3.61 falling to +$11.5 after 2 weeks. I have mentioned I make money mainly on Strong favorites and Home teams. Betting selectevely may reduce unforced mistakes. Additionally I have recognized Inverted favorites.

    Statistics after 2 weeks (60 min only):
    Strong favorites: 16 of 25 (64%) won, 3 of 25 (12%) lost
    Good favorites: 19 of 48 (40%) won, 16 of 48 (33%) lost
    Inverted favorites: 1 of 6 (17%) won, 3 of 6 (50%) lost
    Home teams: 12 of 23 (52%) won

  12. I have noticed on this site that no one really bets any serious type of real money, nor have I really seen or heard of anyone winning any serious money. Serious meaning anything over like $100. Does no one play Proline here? Does everyone stick to on-line betting? I have an account on, but Im not really into on-line betting personally. For me its all about the Hockey and Football Proline Pools. They reward serious money prizes.

  13. I track my progress day by day form the start of the season and these are the statistics I have so far this year:

    Predictions straight up: 643-394 = 62%
    Money won on Proline: 2 Proline Pools ($440.91 & $575.80)
    6 Proline tickets ($412.55 in total)

    Money spent on Proline: $688.00

    Margin difference: up $741.26 this season

  14. You will always get better risk/reward bets at online sports books. Proline pays out as winnings about 50% of revenues while online sports books might pay out up to 80-90%.

    You picked Calgary, New Jersey, NY Islanders, Florida, Buffalo, Dallas, Nashville. A $5 bet using that 7 team parlay at Bowmans would net you $232.74. What would you get on a proline pool?

    Do you make money on proline? I don’t just mean win $100 every now and again, I mean if you added up all the money you spent minus all the money you won, are you up?

  15. I play Proline too, I don’t go crazy though, some times I only play 2 bucks all on the underdogs, though most Iv’e spent on a ticket was 10 bucks, not confident enough yet to go all out, the most Ive won on ProLine was around 550 off a 3 dollar ticket, I picked 6 games all underdogs I picked 1 tie and it was right, I probably won’t get that lucky again,lol

  16. yes David…im up significantly on proline greatly due to im not including Football into these stats. Overall , a rough guess id say im up aprox. $1500-$2000 easy. My stats just included the NHL this season thats it. first season ive tracked it from from to back money wise.

    Proline Pools only happens about 2-3 a week… not every night.. there is no Pools tonight..but there is a 12 game Pool tomarrow. usually a perfect ticket wins…not always but usually. On Pools…it costs $5 to play..if u want to box out 1 game its $10, 2 games $20, 3 games $40 and 4 games $80. Boxing out games means not matter who wins, you still get the pick correct because you paid for it. On Pools nights..the total prize is usually anywhere from $70,000 to $110,000 ive seen highest. Now take that number and divide it by how many people win. Sometimes 1000 win, sometimes its a night of pure upsets and 1 ticket got perfect and someone wins like $100,000. Not a bad risk for anywhere from $5 to $80. This is why i play. Ive hit Proline Hockey Pools twice this season.. a 9 game ticket and an 8 game ticket. A lot of people hit perfect both nights making my payout not as large as i hoped. Now everyone understands how it works…its a great betting platform to use. If you hit…CHA CHING!!!

  17. i didn’t think ottawa would have a great start like they are doing right now against buff…without chara too?…wow

    2 to 0 half way through first…I think buff won’t lie down and take it ….

    we will see….

  18. sorry…after u click PRO PICKS click RESULTS to view past Pools…OPEN pools are pools that are upcoming. Tell m what you think of it. Personally i dont think the payouts can be matched anywhere.

  19. What im saying David is this… you make predictions on all the NHL games night in and night out… Hockey Pools works the same…you have to pick striaght up winners on a ticket on all the games in that night. Best ticket wins! Ive seen your algorithm hit perfect a couple times……now if you paid Proline Pools for $5 every time there is a Pool…and you hit perfect…you would have hit LARGE money a few times now…thats all im saying. Why dink around with same winnings when you have a shot for thousands and thousands for a same risk of betting a minimum $5???

  20. thing is dave went 7 for 7 but pro-line don’t have the pools where there is only 7 games. it’s usally around 10 somteimes as low as 8 games the more games the harder it is..I like the pools but it is very hard to win also…and even when u do it’s hard to make the big coin… your two payoffs were not too bad…I think both methods of betting are ok…it just depends on what your looking for…if you want higher odds which just a few games then on-line betting is better but if you want big payouts with less money then pro-lin pools is ok….they both merit some points…

    a Question for you if I box in a said game no matter what that game is right? does that work for all or do you have to have every combination of games to win…?

    ex. if there is 8 games…and I box all 8 do I win no matter what? and if so how much does that cost?

  21. Mr Hockey, the problem is that when my algorithm works more or less good, i.e. 7 of 8 correct, like on March 12 and 19, there is no Hockey Pool that night somehow!?

  22. Mike you can only box a max of 4 games a ticket. So if the ticket has 15 games…u box 4…you have to select 11 winners.
    -The reason both of my Proline Pools winnings were both under a thousand dollar is due to a few reasons. 1. being there was only 10 games and 8 games played on those tickets, meaning more likely other people hit perfect. I had 2 underdogs on both tickets…so a lot of favs won and ppl tend to pick favs.
    -Ive hit 14/15 twice, 12/13 6x this season, 9/10 numerous times lost count. SOme tickets i do bad some i do good.
    -The more upsets u pick on the Pools and it hits, the more likely less ppl hit pefect and the more money you get.
    -I dont always box gets expensive after a while.
    -Many times i make like aprox 8-20 tickets for $5 each and do as many possible outcome combo tickets as possible.
    -its worth playing for $5 because some nights you get a lot wrong and other nights you do great, even perfect! Just like ppl do guessing on this site. But guessing on here and not buying a Proline Hockey Pool ticket your only cheating yourself.
    -It may take you a while to hit perfect but sooner or later it will happen… if you play the odds , you have to hit a perfect night of like 10 games or better sooner or later.
    -Id rather bet $5 to have a chance to win thousands and thousands of dollars rather than play around with small winnings. I try to make it worth my time.

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