Game Predictions – 3/23/2006

There are several very importang games on the schedule tonight. In the Eastern conference there are 3 games with 5 of the 6 teams participating in a tight battle for the last few playoff spots while the 2 of the 4 western conference games have some importance relating to who will get the last couple playoff spots.

Atlanta-New Jersey – New Jersey currently sits in 7th spot 2 points ahead of 8th place Atlanta and 3 points ahead of 9th place Montreal. A win and the Devils put some separation between themselves and the chase pack once again, a loss and the chase pack could be right on their doorsteps. I like Atlanta in this game though as they are playing pretty good hockey (8-4 in March) while the Devils are not (lost 4 of last 5).

Montreal-Toronto – The 10th place Leafs sit just 3 points behind 9th place Montreal and 4 points out of a playoff spot as they begin a back to back pair of games against the Canadiens. These 2 games are huge games for both teams and if one team could win them both it would be huge. The edge has to go with Toronto as they might be playing their best hockey of the year (5-2-1 in last 8) while Montreal has struggled somewhat (lost 4 of last 5). I like Toronto to win one, maybe both of these games.

Tampa-Washington – The 6th place Lightning sit just 4 points ahead of 9th place Montreal so their playoff spot is anything but secure. They get off easy tonight playing the lowly Capitals but with all the inconsistancies they have to deal with in goal a win is anything but assured. I still like Tampa to win but an upset would not surprise me at all.

Detroit-San Jose – San Jose is 6-0-2 in their last 8 games which has put them in the thick of the playoff race but tonight they play a very tough Red Wings team. Not only is this important for them to win with respect to the playoff race but it might be an indication of whether the Sharks can compete with the elite in the west. It’s going to be tought but I think they have the ability to pull off an upset win.

St. Louis-Calgary – Not a hugely important game though Calgary still has some work to do to lock down the division title.

Phoenix-Chicago – Yawn….

Vancouver-Edmonton – This is the middle game of 3 straight games these two teams are playing against each other. Vancouver pulled out a win in the first game and Edmonton will desperately look to pull out a win this game. I think they will get that win.

I bet on 4 games today at Bowmans:

Atlanta -140
Washington +265 (the odds are just too good to pass up)
Toronto +125
San Jose +175

Home Team Fair
Road Team Fair
Predicted Winner Confidence
Atlanta -131 New Jersey 124 Atlanta Some
Montreal -119 Toronto 116 Montreal Some
Tampa Bay -265 Washington 162 Tampa Bay Strong
Detroit -132 San Jose 124 Detroit Some
St. Louis 132 Calgary -149 Calgary Good
Phoenix -175 Chicago 142 Phoenix Good
Vancouver -123 Edmonton 118 Vancouver Some

This article has 13 Comments

  1. you say you bet on wash (after their shitty performance last night) but in your predicted winner you say tampa bay is a strong play??? I’m confused here…

  2. your predicted winners are against your wagers……how the hell does that make sense than. Are you fading yourself????

  3. guys, go a few posts back to read his ht/rt odds and what that means.

    he obviously bet some doggs b/c he felt there was unusual value.

    dave: question – this is a departure from how you have been making picks, is this how you plan to proceed?


  4. Bol on the plays, though I’m not quite sure why you have to post the chart when you have already posted your picks at your sportsbook, which, by the way, doesn’t need a ‘plug’ IMO.

  5. If you asked me who is the most likely to win the Tampa-Washington game I would definitely say Tampa. But that is no guarantee. Betting is all about risk/reward and I feel that although there is definitely risk with the Washington bet, the reward makes it worthwhile.

  6. GL dave

    Glad to see you have “Good” on Calgary but is it not a strong play because its basically meaningless for both teams?

    I agree Tampa is a “Strong” play but the value is always good for a small play on the Caps. Don’t see it as a bad thing..

  7. Hmmmmm……good point John. Looking at the link it looks like that there may be a bonus involved for Dave if some clicks on the link and plays with Bowmans.

    Instead of linkiing it with It’s linked with banner ID 691.

    If I’m wrong about that I will say I’m sorry.

  8. “guys, go a few posts back to read his ht/rt odds and what that means.

    he obviously bet some doggs b/c he felt there was unusual value. ”

    But he’s fading his strongest play. I could see maybe going against the some confidence rating. But going against you strongest predicted winner!!!!!

    You really should clear this up Dave. Now we don’t want to “mislead” anyone do we!!!

    Sometimes it takes a while to find out you can’t take almost all big favorites and make money. Hey, you never responded to the question if you took the Sens at -570 to make $80 or so bucks. I guess you did. You did state that you played every game you posted.

    As Tom asked, are you not wagering on your formula plays anymore? Just what you actual posted?

  9. “If you asked me who is the most likely to win the Tampa-Washington game I would definitely say Tampa. But that is no guarantee. Betting is all about risk/reward and I feel that although there is definitely risk with the Washington bet, the reward makes it worthwhile.”

    of course its risk/reward that’s why its calling GAMBLING.

    I see you have changed your ways. You use to be all about the juice, very rarely would you play an underdog.

  10. Hello, this is my first post, but I’m sure there are other people too that would like to understand why you changed from betting every prediction you have made, to not betting every one, and then, even changing from the prediction? I’m just really curious, because I’ve been following your posts for a while now. Thanks~

  11. It looks quite clear to me. Dave’s system determines probably winner and fair odds for this winner (of course, the system doesn’t say that any team will win for sure). He just tried to predict outcomes and probabilities better than bookies do.

    As far as I understand it, Dave first checked his system, betting on all the predictions. As it looks quite reliable, now Dave looks for value plays, that is: plays where probabilities that come from his system differ much to real odds.

    His system tells that fair odds for Washington would be 165, as in fact it is 270, it means that according to this system, Washington is a value play. I don’t see anything wrong with that.

    This way should be reliable, but only if fair odds are calculated more or less well. I see some problems checking that, as perhaps there is not enough data for that (specially with ‘strong plays’, which are not that common).
    Latest data given by Dave are:
    Strong: 33 of 51 – 64.7%
    Good: 48 of 77 – 62.3%
    Some: 77 of 131 – 58.8%
    So at least it looks that Some

  12. Brenden: The whole reason I started betting was as an attempt to show that my predictions could be used to make money. To do that I bet on every game for about 2 1/2 weeks since the Olympics. But that was before the Olympics. I am not doing that anymore. Now I am, probably against my better judgement, picking some games that I feel have a good risk/reward and using the Fair HTOdds and Fair RTOdds as a guideline. It’s a different strategy but I am not sure if it will be any better.

    Yes, if I refer someone to Bowmans and they sign up with an account and bet, I get a small percentage of that. Most of the advertisements on this website are set up that way. I don’t make very much money off of any of the advertisements on this website and they barely pay for the hosting fees let alone do much to compensate me for the time and effort I put in to it. Any money I make off the advertisements will go right back into this website through me being able to spend more time on it than on my regular bill paying job. Also, I don’t ever want to make any of the content on my site paid content. I also don’t ever intend to resort to annoying pop up ads or other more ‘intrusive’ ads.

  13. Strong favorit: ATL
    Good favorits: TOR, TBL, STL, PHX, VAN
    Home team: DET

    Yesterday was not valuable day for betting. 3 of 5 did not win in 60 min. I have lost $1.88.

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