Game Predictions – 3/22/2006
I made some minor changes into the output of my game prediction algorithm which hopefully will clear up some of the confusion surrounding the HTOdds column I had. I now have 2 columns listed, Fair HTOdds and Fair RTOdds and these represent what I would consider to be fair odds if you were to bet on one of these teams. For example, the Fair HTOdds for Buffalo is -188 so if I were looking to bet on Buffalo to win I would ideally be looking for odds better than -188. The odds for Buffalo at Bowmans is currently -135 so I would consider this a good risk/reward bet. Conversely, the fair odds for Carolina is +146 while the odds for Carolina at Bowmans is +115. This would not be a good risk/reward bet in my mind because +115 is not better odds than +146. Does this make it any clearer?
One betting strategy, which I think I might try, is to only bet the predicted winner if its odds are close to or better than the calculated fair odds. Otherwise, don’t bet the game at all. Tonight I am betting Buffalo (-135), NY Rangers (-150) and Anaheim (-125). I know Anaheim doesn’t strictly fit that since -125 is worse odds than fair odds of -113 but the odds are fairly close to fair and Anaheim is playing very good right now while Colorado has been pretty inconsistant. That said, Colorado will probably win and I’ll be mad at myself for making the bet.
|NY Rangers||-171||Philadelphia||141||NY Rangers||Strong|