Game Predictions – 3/20/2006

Although the past couple of days have been a bit mediocre for game predictions, the past week has been quite good overall as I went 33 for 48 or 68%. Here are the updated success rates adjusted from last week to retroactively fix the bug I found which incorrectly assigned confidence levels to some games. These numbers are indicative of what you might expect in the future though I would really like to see the Strong substantially higher and the good a bit higher.

Strong: 33 of 51 – 64.7%
Good: 48 of 77 – 62.3%
Some: 77 of 131 – 58.8%
Overall: 158 of 259 – 61.0%

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Now on to tonights games. With the races so close in both the eastern and western conferences a significant number of the games have significant playoff implications. Tonight is no different. In the eastern conference the 8th place Canadiens look to extend their 1 point lead over Atlanta and 3 point lead over Toronto with a win over the Washington Capitals. Atlanta meanwhile will try to keep pace but are in tough against the high flying Buffalo Sabres who themselves are looking to rebound after a loss to Ottawa and get back into the hunt for first in the division and conference. And Tampa Bay who recently build a 5 point cushion between them and the Montreal Canadiens look to maintain that spread as they take on surging, but still out of the playoffs and little hope of getting back in, Florida Panthers.

In the west there are two important games to watch. The first is Anaheim at Dallas. Anaheim has battled back and is now in the 8th playoff position but a win will allow them to leapfrog Edmonton and possibly Los Angeles or tie Colorado as well. That will depend on the other important western conference game: Colorado at Los Angeles. Colorado mad a big gamble at the trade deadline trading #1 goalie David Aebischer for injured Montrel #1 goalie Jose Theodore. It was a gamble because it left them with two rookies playing goal until Theodore can return, likely in early April. It might be a costly gamble as the playoff chase pack is now hot on their heels and they can ill afford to lose many games or they will find themselves sitting on the outside looking in come playoff time. Tongight begins an important stretch for them as they play Los Angeles, Anaheim, St. Louis, Edmonton and Anaheim again in the next 5 games. That’s a lot of games against teams looking to grab their spot.

There was a request to add a RTOdds (road team odds) column. I plan on doing this and hopefully I’ll get to it in the next day or two.

Home Team Road Team Predicted Winner Confidence HTOdds
NY Rangers Boston NY Rangers Some -127
Washington Montreal Montreal Good 122
Atlanta Buffalo Buffalo Good 112
Florida Tampa Bay Florida Good -150
Nashville St. Louis Nashville Strong -205
Dallas Anaheim Dallas Strong -196
Los Angeles Colorado Los Angeles Good -155

This article has 14 Comments

  1. why do guys like florida?? tampa has played well last few games…I also like colorado tonight over la

    dallas anahiem can go either way…but i will go with dallas because they are home..

    the rest i like dave..

  2. Three reasons:

    1. Florida is at home.

    2. Tampa is playing on back to back days.

    3. Florida is also playing well as they have won 5 of last 6 games including beating Ottawa once and Carolina twice.

  3. Preferences: BUF, FLO, NSH, DAL
    Value bets (max odds): BOS, WSH
    Home team (because odds are equal): LAK

  4. Hey David. Out of curiosity, do you see Anaheim keeping it within 1 goal? I can get them at +1.5 and I’m wondering if it’s worth a shot.

  5. DAVID u still pick DAL even though they are facing an impressive and desperate ANA team?? just curious.. why?

  6. Wow Kevin thats suprising. Out of 7 games tonight you honestly dont think a road team will pull out a victory??

    Few chances to my picks for tonight:

    -Los Angeles

  7. i think dal will win also dave, they are very tough to beat at home, ana will have their hands full…

    the same can be said for atlanta if your picking desperate teams? but you picked buffalo? just curious

  8. Dallas should win because they are the better team, are playing at home and Anaheim played yesterday. Hmmm, sounds like I am repeating myself (see Florida comment). Certainly Anaheim could keep it within 1 goal. I generally don’t like taking the +1.5 bets.

  9. Does anyone know any up to the minute hockey sites that tell which goaltenders are starting that night? I ask because Ive been saying it for a few games now that Emery for Ottawa has played in 11 striaght games since the Hasek injury and the Olympics. Emery in my eyes is due for a night off and possibly yhat night is tomarrow vs Pittsburgh. I see no reason why the Sens would play Emery in a meaningless game. I expect Morrison to start for Ottawa tomarrow night which could alter any prediction anyone might have. Keep that in mind.

  10. sorry dave i thought the comment by john was yours…I seen david and i thought it was your heading(david)…

    sorry about that…

  11. NYR = W
    FLORIDA = W (nice one!)
    DALLAS = L (upset)
    LA = L (way off)

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