Mar 052006
 

The push for the playoffs is on and with the extremely unabalanced schedules it becomes important to look at which teams have the more favourable schedules between now and the end of the season to see who has the best chance of making the playoffs. So what I did was look at how many points a team has as of games through last night and compare that to the difficulty of their schedule so far and then based on the number of games and the difficulty of their remaining schedule make a prediction on how many points they should get. From that, here are the predicted final standings for the eastern and western conferences.

Eastern Conference Predicted Standings

Pos Team GP Pts Schedule Strength Future GP Future SchedStr Pred Pts Total Pts
1 Carolina 60 88 0.471 22 0.435 34 122
2 Ottawa 59 85 0.496 23 0.472 34 119
3 Buffalo 59 81 0.486 23 0.524 29 110
4 NY Rangers 60 80 0.464 22 0.491 27 107
5 Philadelphia 61 76 0.467 21 0.481 25 101
6 New Jersey 61 71 0.477 21 0.466 25 96
7 Montreal 59 66 0.511 23 0.491 26 92
8 Tampa Bay 60 68 0.472 22 0.471 24 92
9 NY Islanders 59 58 0.495 23 0.429 26 84
10 Atlanta 61 62 0.472 21 0.490 20 82
11 Toronto 60 59 0.513 22 0.495 22 81
12 Boston 61 60 0.505 21 0.527 19 79
13 Florida 60 54 0.482 22 0.482 19 73
14 Washington 59 46 0.486 23 0.500 17 63
15 Pittsburgh 61 39 0.501 21 0.472 14 53

Western Conference Predicted Standings

Pos Team GP Pts Schedule Strength Future GP Future SchedStr Pred Pts TotalPts
1 Detroit 60 87 0.484 22 0.464 33 120
2 Dallas 60 81 0.518 22 0.507 30 111
3 Calgary 60 77 0.515 22 0.539 26 103
4 Nashville 60 76 0.487 22 0.488 27 103
5 Colorado 62 74 0.531 20 0.489 25 99
6 Vancouver 62 75 0.517 20 0.553 22 97
7 Edmonton 60 70 0.526 22 0.538 25 95
8 Los Angeles 62 73 0.516 20 0.539 22 95
9 Anaheim 59 67 0.516 23 0.539 25 92
10 San Jose 59 64 0.520 23 0.522 24 88
11 Phoenix 61 60 0.537 21 0.491 22 82
12 Minnesota 62 63 0.526 20 0.550 19 82
13 Columbus 60 48 0.509 22 0.491 18 66
14 Chicago 59 47 0.505 23 0.511 18 65
15 St. Louis 58 43 0.502 24 0.531 16 59

Of course the Rangers would get the #3 playoff seed in the east. Overall there isn’t really much change from the current standings but there are some interesting things to note.

1. If everything goes according to what one would expect from the above analysis there really won’t be much of a playoff race in the eastern conference. Tampa and Montreal would end up tied for the final 2 playoff spots a full 8 points ahead of the NY Islanders who push their way into 9th based on a very easy remaining schedule.

2. The playoff race in the west will be a bit closer with Edmonton and Los Angeles tied just 3 points ahead of 9th place Anaheim and 5 ahead of 10th place San Jose. One must also consider than San Jose has played better since the Joe Thornton trade so they should be able to close the gap even further.

3. Most importantly we must remember that things never happen according to expecations and that all of the above predictions are subject to change depending on what trades teams make or what injuries teams suffer. And don’t assume that all trades for good players are for the better. Nashville has been pretty mediocre since picking up Sillinger and Carolina has been no better either since the Weight trade. Weight has so far contributed very little (8 games, 1 point, -4).

I’ll post updated predictions every week or two so you can all keep up to speed on how your team is doing and it’s playoff outlook.

  5 Responses to “Making Predictions on Final Standings”

  1.  

    I would like to post my predictions for the final standings. Let’s start out in the Western Conference (Through all games completed as of 3/5/2006)

    1) Detroit 118 points
    2) Dallas 111 points
    3) Calgary 103 points
    4) Nashville 103 points
    5) Vancouver 97 points
    6) Los Angeles 96 points
    7) Edmonton 96 points
    8) Colorado 96 points
    9) Anaheim 92 points
    10) San Jose 88 points
    11) Minnesota 84 points
    12) Phoenix 80 points
    13) Columbus 67 points
    14) Chicago 64 points
    15) St. Louis 62 points

    Now, for the Eastern Conference

    1) Carolina 120 points
    2) Ottawa 118 points
    3) Buffalo 112 points
    4) NY Rangers 109 points
    5) Philadelphia 102 points
    6) New Jersey 95 points
    7) Tampa Bay 92 points
    8) Montreal 91 points
    9) Atlanta 83 points
    10) Boston 80 points
    11) NY Islanders 80 points
    12) Toronto 80 points
    13) Florida 73 points
    14) Washington 63 points
    15) Pittsburgh 52 points

    I will try posting my predicted final standings on the same day that the post is created by David Johnson.

  2.  

    […] A couple weeks ago I posted some predictions on the final NHL standings. Here are the updated predictions through last nights games. The predictions are calculated based on the number of games each team has left as well as the difficulty of their remaining schedule compared to their performance so far and their difficulty of schedule so far. […]

  3.  

    […] March 5, 2006 Projected Final Standings […]

  4.  

    Your predictions look pretty solid to me — all the way up to the Oilers once again having to play Dallas in the first round. Is there ANY WAY we can avoid this? It’s actually become a little chilling.

  5.  

    Any updates to your predictions?

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