Feb 142006
 

Well, the olympic break is now upon us and the olympic hockey tournament begins tomorrow. After some thought I have decided to use the olympic break as a bit of a blogging break as well and more importantly as an opportunity to catch up on some much needed ‘pay the bills’ work. I also hope to use some of the extra time to develop offense and defense rankings and maybe take a look at using these rank as a game prediction tool to see if theycan in some way improve on or complement the current game prediction algorithm I have. Hopefully before the olympic break ends I’ll get something posted about that.

In the mean time if anyone wants to post their predictions for the olympic hockey tournament, feel free to post your comments here. My thouhts are that it will come down to Canada, Czech Republic and possibly Sweden if Forsberg can get healthy for the medal rounds. I think these are the only three teams who have the quality and consistancy of goaltending to win a major tournament.

Current odds (as posted at Bowmans) to win the olympic gold are:

Canada -140
Czech Republic +275
Russia +350
Sweden +550
Slovakia +800
USA +900
Finland +1200
Switzerland +8500
Germany +10000
Latvia +10000
Italy +30000
Kazakhstan +35000

From those odds I’d say Czech Republic and Sweden provide excellent risk/reward bets and probably a better risk/reward ratio than Canada. As nice as it would be to win $35,000 on a $1 Kazakhstan bet, I just don’t think it is going to happen.

  5 Responses to “Olympic break…”

  1.  

    I agree with you on Ceska and Sweden- and the latter should benefit from not having Salo in net. Injuries are taking chunks out of every nation’s roster, particularly the Canadian defense.

    Sweden has the luxury of being in a separate bracket from Canada and Ceska, but the B group won’t have that easy win that the A group will in facing Italy.

  2.  

    Canada at -140 is one of the heaviest favourites I’ve seen. If you want to put money on Canada, I’d suggst doing it elsewhere.

    For some reason, Canada’s odds have been improving. Seems strange with all the injuries announced on defense.

    Sweden and Russia have also been improving, while the other four of the Big Seven (CZE, SVK, USA, FIN) have been getting longer odds over time.

  3.  

    Switz to upset Finland tommorow !

  4.  

    Those odds are relative to $100, So Kazak. is only 350-1, truly a poor proposition – they could play until the Apocalypse and that Kazak team still wouldn’t win gold.

  5.  

    If USA loses to Russia on Tuesday, they still have a good chance of making the quarterfinals with a record of 1-3-1. It helps being in the same pool as Latvia (0-3-1) and Kazakhstan (0-4-0). USA would likely play Sweden, which is a match-up I would like to see after their close game today. One problem with USA is their lack of offense. They have good defense, good special teams, good goaltending, but they can’t get the puck past the goalies. Will they be able to beat Sweden if they face them in the next round?

    Meanwhile, Canada has lost two consecutive games in their pool. I am starting to wonder if we will be able to see either Canada or USA in the gold medal game.

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