Feb 032006
 

Last night was a tough night. My predictions were just 5 of nine but 2 of my losses happened by a shootout and another occurred in OT. Lots of close games last night. I bet on all 9 games last night but the four losses caused me to be down every so slightly from $108.04 to $107.53. Not a big loss really.

Tonight we have four games on the schedule with a few interesting ones.

New Jersey/Carolina – This is the debut of Doug Weight and we will get to see how they make room for him on the team. With Staal and Brind’amour already playing at center one has to wonder if one of them (more likely Staal) will move to the wing. The betting line on the game has the Devils (-115) as very slight favourites over the Hurricanes (-105) but my predictions ahve Carolina as ‘good’ confidence favourites. I say that makes Carolina the easy betting choice despite the fact that the Devils have played a lot better the past month.

Calgary/Vancouver – Two top, and somewhat struggling, western conference teams meet up in an important division and conference game. In the last 5 games the Flames have won just once and have lost to Chicago, St. Louis and Columbus. Vancouver has won 2 in a row but lost the 3 games before that, including losses to St. Louis and Columbus. There is nothing like a good rivalry game to get a team focused though so expect both teams to play better. My prediction algorithm has Calgary as the slight favourite but the betting line has Calgary (-160) as a significant favourite over Vancouver (+140). Those odds make it tempting to plave your bet Vancouver’s way.

Both Toronto/Washington and Atlanta/Florida games will have an impact on the eastern conference playoff race as Toronto is trying to increase their lead over the teams chasing them for the 8th and final playoff spot while Atlanta needs to get the win to stay in the playoff race. Toronto is a ‘good’ favourite and I like their chaces to win but I am less confident with Atlanta even though they are the slight favourite by my prediction. Atlanta has lost 6 in a row and hasn’t look good either scoring just 6 goals in their last 5 games. But those 6 losses were against some pretty good teams so maybe a weaker Florida team is just what they needed.

(betting lines by Bowmans)

Home Team Road Team Predicted Winner Confidence
Washington Toronto Toronto Good
New Jersey Carolina Carolina Good
Florida Atlanta Atlanta Some
Calgary Vancouver Calgary Some


  One Response to “Game Predictions – 2/3/2006”

  1.  

    Hiya. One thing I think you could also do is, in the chart where you list your predictions, also include the betting lines. Yesterday, I went 5 for 9, but 3 of those 4 losses came in the bonus frame. My picking Columbus to win over Edmonton really helped my overall betting total. Excluding that game, I lost $6.71. But winning $11.00 in Columbus shootout win brought my overall total to $101.03. With four games today, I don’t personally believe I can do really good as far as the betting, as I have picked 3 of the underdogs.

    Toronto (-150) @ Washington (+130)
    Atlanta (-105) @ Florida (-115)
    Carolina (-120) @ New Jersey (EVEN)
    Vancouver (+125) @ Calgary (-145)

    All of my predictions are 50% confidences. The teams I predicted are Washington, Florida, New Jersey, and Vancouver.

    75%: 48 for 63, 76.2%
    60%: 82 for 150, 54.7%
    50%: 60 for 125, 48.0%
    Overall: 190 for 338, 56.2%

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