Feb 022006
 

Well, yesterday wasn’t quite as good a day for predictions as the previous day but I was still 3 for 6 so it wasn’t all bad. With 9 games today I am aiming for 6 or preferably more correct.

My betting total has dropped to $108.04 because I only bet on 4 games since the Rangers and Red Wings odds to win were so bad (-450 for the Rangers and only point spread odds for the Wings). That means I was just 1 for 4 in the games I bet on getting only Dallas correct. Today I have bet on all games so I won’t make that mistake again.

Home Team Road Team Predicted Winner Confidence
Boston Montreal Boston Some
Buffalo Philadelphia Buffalo Some
NY Islanders NY Rangers NY Islanders Some
Pittsburgh Ottawa Ottawa Strong
St. Louis Chicago Chicago Some
Nashville Colorado Colorado Some
Edmonton Columbus Edmonton Good
Phoenix Los Angeles Phoenix Some
San Jose Minnesota Minnesota Some

Most of the predictions make sense although surprisingly St. Louis has been playing better recently so it would not surprise me if they defeated the also bad Blackhawks. Columbus might be the best team in the western conference the last several weeks. They defeated a strong Calgary team last night and who knows, maybe they can make it back-to-back Alberta wins tonight. The best odds of the day go to the Minnesota Wild currently have a +135 money line to win at Bowmans. Although I haven’t predicted them to win, the money lines for Montreal (+140) and Philadelphia (+140) might entice some to go against the prediction. Especially so in Montreal’s case.


  6 Responses to “Game Predictions – 2/2/2006”

  1.  

    David… I apologize but I’m going to have to reconsider tracking your power system since I’m very limited in time right now. I wish I could help. Normally though, I track my own version of my power rankings and then, this enables me to make my own line for a game. When I have value on the line, similar to the example I gave, I play the game. It’s trickier in Hockey as opposed to Baskets or football where you can simply assign a home team a 3 to 4 point edge factor. On a moneyline play, the determination must be made on whether or not a team is worth an extra 20 cents for home ince advantage.

    So, not to be non-co-operative, but I simply don’t have the time to start tracking another power rating formula.

    Then again…. if your own power ratings as listed above do take into consideration home/away etc. then it appears as though they don’t need any further tinkering on that front. Your rankings did show that the Flames were considerably over-priced last night and using the power ratings, the Jackets were a nice overlay dog.

    See how it goes.

  2.  

    I think I have learned a lesson in that I shouldn’t pick a team solely based on betting lines. In fact, I am going with three of today’s underdogs (based on betting lines), but I selected my teams before I inputed into my Microsoft Excel spreadsheet the odds. Those teams, Montreal, Colorado, and Columbus, are all reasonable. Montreal has gone 26-1-0 in games in which they scored first, Colorado is fresh while Nashville lost on the road yesterday, and Columbus is in the midst of their best winning streak (4 games) in club history. A couple of odds that I am against is LA (-120) over Phoenix (EVEN), NYR (-125) over NYI (+105), Edmonton (-260) over Columbus (-220), and Nashville (-120) over Colorado (EVEN).

    75%: Ottawa
    60%: Montreal, Los Angeles, San Jose
    50%: NY Rangers, Buffalo, Colorado, St. Louis, Columbus

    Overall Record:
    75%: 47 for 62, 75.8%
    60%: 82 for 147, 55.8%
    50%: 56 for 120, 46.7%
    Overall: 185 for 329, 56.2%

    I am currently at $96.74 after losing $15.81 yesterday. Hopefully, I can go better than 2-4.

  3.  

    BTW David, will you be giving your predictions for the Olympics? If so, I’m really looking forwards to those. Thanks again and keep up the great work!

  4.  

    Yeah, that would be really interesting. It would be a much harder choice to make because I (don’t know about David) only know about the NHL. There are much more European and Russian leagues that I don’t know about, but it would be really interesting. If I were to do that, I would probably have a very low success rate except for those games that involve Canada, who has had a very good team.

  5.  

    John,

    No problem. I might consider tracking it myself but I don’t have a ton of free time these days either. As for the Olympics, I am not sure if I will give my predictions. The Olympics are difficult because I have no historic data to look at to see how each team performs. It will be almost all subjective so really just would be my opinion. I probably won’t do much for the round robin games but come the playoff rounds I might make some predictions.

    Looks like tonight is another mediocre night as I have been hurt by all the overtime and shoot out results. I am currently 4-4 with half a period left in the Minnesota/San Jose game with San Jose up 2-1. If Minnesota comes back to win I’ll be down just a little bit, if they don’t, I’ll be down a fair bit and back under $100. Go Wild!!

  6.  

    Some pretty close games tonight, especially in the west; all 5 western conference games were decided either in OT or shootouts.

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