NHL Game Predictions – 1/31/2006

Six games on the NHL schedule tonight including several that have a significant impact on the playoff drive in the eastern conference as 6th place Tampa plays 8th place Toronto, and 9th place Montreal and 10th place Atlanta are all in action and only 6 points separate those 4 teams. Should be an interesting night. We will also get to see Doug Weight make his Carolina debut. I’m curious as to how they will set up their lines now that they have Staal, Weight and Brind’amour all at center as well as Matt Cullen. My guess is Staal moves to the wing on a line with Doug Weight.

Since Friday my new prediciton algorithm has the following success rates:

Strong: 3 of 4 – 75.0%
Good: 1 of 1 – 100.0%
Some: 9 of 17 – 52.9%

On Saturaday I started betting $5 on every game based on the predicted outcomes. I started with $100 and as of this morning my $99.41. Hopefully I’ll get over the $100 mark tonight.

Home Team Road Team Predicted Winner Confidence
NY Islanders Washington NY Islanders Good
Atlanta Buffalo Buffalo Some
Montreal Carolina Carolina Some
Tampa Bay Toronto Tampa Bay Some
Colorado Minnesota Colorado Good
Phoenix Vancouver Vancouver Some

I have obligated myself to bet as the games are predicted but if you are going to bet against a favourite a good choices might be Toronto who are expected to have McCabe back in the lineup and the risk/reward seems pretty good (current line +165). Washington (+155) over NY Islanders (-175) looks like an underdog worth looking at. As a favourite, Buffalo is giving pretty good odds (-115) over Atlanta and seems to provide an excellent risk/reward. For some reason Bowmans hasn’t posted a betting line for Vancouver/Phoenix yet but I’ll check back later.

Betting lines from Bowmans.

This article has 19 Comments

  1. I personally think that Carolina was very fortunate that they were the team that made a trade with St. Louis. They may have given up a lot to get him, but they are proving that they are serious about competing against Ottawa and Philadelphia.

    Here is today’s schedule along with their betting lines (according to http://www.covers.com)

    Buffalo (-107) @ Atlanta (-103)
    Washington (157) @ NY Islanders (-167)
    Carolina (-128) @ Montreal (118)
    Toronto (175) @ Tampa Bay (-185)
    Vancouver (-105) @ Phoenix (-105)
    Minnesota (171) @ Colorado (-181)
    Every prediction is a 60% confidence and Colorado is the only home team I predicted for today.

    Yesterday, I got $14.50 from Boston’s 5-0 romp over Ottawa alone. Overall, with wins with Anaheim, Detroit, and Dallas, and losses with Calgary, NY Rangers, and Florida, I gained $9.86 yesterday with all bets $5 bets. This was the 3rd day that I started betting on games. I started with $100.00 and bet $5 on each game since, and am currently at $108.01. With the betting lines from 8:10 AM (11:10 EST) from http://www.covers.com, I could possibly win up to $32.70. Using these betting lines, I went with two underdogs (Toronto and Washington), who would pay $8.75 and $7.85 (respectively).

    Overall Records:
    75%: 46-10-5, 79.5% (46 of 61, 75.4%)
    60%: 78-46-14, 61.6% (78 of 138, 56.5%)
    50%: 55-50-13, 52.1% (55 of 118, 46.6%)
    Home: 100-48-18, 65.7% (100 of 166, 60.2%)
    Road: 79-58-14, 57.0% (79 of 151, 52.3%)
    Overall: 179-106-32, 61.5% (179 of 317, 56.5%)
    I don’t know which standings I should use, so could you please tell me which I should use. Or, I could just post both. As soon as possible, I will try to update my lines with those found on http://hockeyanalysis.com/?page_id=110.

  2. I’d recommend just sticking with straight wins and losses, since that’s how Bowmans or whoever else is going to keep track of your money (hypothetical or real) will.

    Anyone else surprised that Carolina is just a slight favorite tonight at Montreal. Do either of you see any factors other than the Habs record at home as reason for this? The Canes will obviously get a spark by having Weight play his first game. They’re also starting a road trip and are 4-0-1 when beginning a trip of 2+ games this season. The intangibles seem to be there for them. So for you stat folks, why are they just slight favorites?

  3. Good point. I will continue to do just that, but personally keep track of W-L-OTL should anybody request those standings.

    I believe that the reason that Carolina is only listed as a slight favorite on David’s predictions because his algorithm includes statistics in recent play both as a team and head-to-head. Since Doug Weight is going to make his debut today, his statistics didn’t factor in his formula. Since I don’t use a formula to predict games and I just pick who will win based on my knowledge of the teams, I listed Carolina as a “Good” prediction despite them playing in Montreal.

  4. No, I don’t look at recent play and head to head play. I only look at season results. The reason why Carolina is only a some confidence favourite is because they are playing on the road and that most people underrate Montreal who is actually better than their record would indicate because they have played a schedule more difficult than most.

    Weight is actually not going to be in tonights lineup, but I didn’t consider that in my predictions either.

  5. Could I ask you where you heard that Doug Weight wouldn’t play against Montreal tonight? Also, I was just reading about 5 minutes ago that Doug Weight, an unrestricted free agent after the season, might consider signing with St. Louis in the offseason. He said “There’s not a place I want to win a Stanley Cup more than here.” and “I’m not afraid to say I love St. Louis… It’s a place that’s dear to me and it’s a place where I’d love to end up. Who knows? Before you turn around I could be back here.”. I don’t think he should be able to resign with St. Louis after the season in which he was traded. If he did, St. Louis would get 3 players and 3 draft picks for 2 players, a very uneven deal.
    St. Louis is coming off of a huge home shootout win vs. Calgary. I think that their players are going to work much harder to show that trading Mike Sillinger and Doug Weight, the teams top-2 in Goals, Assists, and Points, wasn’t pointless. They probably know right now that their streak of 25 consecutive playoff appearences is in serious jeopardy, so they are going to work hard to get a new streak going, hopefully not one of consecutive seasons NOT making the playoffs.
    If I were the Blues GM, I wouldn’t trade Doug Weight to Carolina, a team that would get a late-round draft pick for success in the playoffs and regular season. Also, I wouldn’t trade Mike Sillinger to Nashville, a team who, in the new NHL, would play the Blues 8 times in the regular season. Maybe if St. Louis got stuck in a division with Chicago, Columbus, Pittsburgh, and Florida, they could contend for the division champions.

  6. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=153059&hubname=

    It is customary of a player just traded to say nice things about the city and team he was traded from. That does not mean it is all true. While I am sure that Weight enjoyed his time in St. Louis I am also pretty sure that he isn’t going to have St. Louis at the top of his list of places to sign if they didn’t and don’t do things to improve their team. Both Sillinger and Weight are unrestricted free agents at the end of the year and St. Louis needs all the future help they can get. This helps them stock pile draft picks and players which will help them in the future.

  7. Will be at the atl game tonight vs sabres. Playing sabs and I like the under 6.5. Under is always a risky bet with atl, however sabres do a good job neutralizing teams with speed.

  8. Plus Atlanta has only scored 4 goals in their last 4 games. They are in a bit of a scoring slump.

  9. I think that if Weight is going to sign with anybody other than Carolina in the offseason, I think he would have to

    If I were in the situation that Doug Weight is currently in and I were not to re-sign with Carolina, I would go to either Ottawa or Nashville. I would try to refrain from going to Nashville, as the Western Conference has the best squads. Colorado, the 8th ranked team in the West has 61 points. The 8th-11th ranked teams in the East all have 52 points. Don’t forget that either Anaheim, San Jose, or Minnesota would be in that 8th spot if any of them were in the East Conference. The reason Nashville would be okay is because Paul Kariya, Mike Sillinger, and Tomas Vokoun are the only players they are paying a considerable amount, so this is truely a possibility. I don’t think Ottawa would want to sign him because they have Heatley, Alfreddson, Spezza, and others, so they wouldn’t want to run up the salary cap.

  10. Ottawa can’t afford Weight. They are going to be in tough just trying to resign Chara and Redden (who are unrestricted) and Spezza and Havlat and others (who are restricted free agents). Plus they will either have to resign Hasek (who is unrestricted) or if Hasek retires (a definite possibility) find another goalie because Emery is showing he isn’t ready to take over the starter role. Whoever they sign might cost more than the $2 million Hasek is making this year.

    I could see Weight going back to Edmonton where he played several years earlier in his career. Edmonton will have some extra money available as Peca will be coming off a contract (in fact there are rumors that they are offering Peca as trade bait right now). Calgary might also be interested as would several other teams.

    Sillinger doesn’t have a big contract. He is a journeyman player and is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year and may not even return to Nashville.

  11. The injury woes continue for the cellar-dwelling St. Louis Blues, who are now without RW Jamal Mayers for 6-8 weeks. That won’t hurt as much as the timetable implicates because of the Olympic Break in 3 weeks. The Blues play 6 games in February, and look at this schedule:
    Feb 1 @ Detroit
    Feb 2 v. Chicago
    Feb 4 v. Dallas
    Feb 8 @ Vancouver
    Feb 10 @ Calgary
    Feb 12 @ Edmonton
    They have a hard upcoming against teams they probably wouldn’t beat anyway.

  12. Well, apparently Carolina didn’t need Doug Weight in their game against the Canadiens. The Hurricanes creamed Montreal by a final of 8-2. Eric Cole had 3 goals before the game was even half way over. We will see whether or not he will help Carolina in their next game.
    Bien, apparemment la Caroline n’a pas eu besoin du poids de Doug dans leur jeu contre le Canadiens. Les Hurricanes ont écrémé Montréal par une finale de 8-2. Eric Cole a eu 3 buts avant que le jeu ait été terminé même demi de manière. Nous verrons s’il aidera la Caroline dans leur prochain jeu.

  13. Dude your predictions are bogus. You always seem to pick the favourites. I noticed 9/10 times you take the favourites. What kind of predictions is that? You might get lucky 1/5 nights and hit a perfect sheet with all favs coming thru. These aren’t much of predictions. Anyone can pick favourites. Try picking some upsets cause upsets happen very often in this NHL.

  14. I’m trying to pick winners, thus that implies I am going to pick favoutires. I am also testing my predictions by betting on every game and I am currently up 20% in 4 days. Most people lose money betting (that’s just the way it works).

    But if you want upsets, Monday I predicted Philadelphia, Toronto and Los Angeles to win and all had betting lines indicating they were not favourites amongst the betting world. Toronto and Philadelphia won and Los Angeles lost in overtime. Sunday I predicted Washington to defeat Tampa (how many people predicted that?) and Washington won.

    Again, I am trying to predict winners, not take shot in the dark gambles that St. Louis will actually win a game against Calgary. I’ll leave that up to you. Good luck. If you think you are so smart, lets see you post your predictions here and see if you can match my success rate.

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