Jan 302006
 

We had a good day yesterday going 3 for 3 in our predictions. With 7 games on the schedule lets see if we can get 5 or more correct.

Since we started using the new prediction algorithm on Friday here is our success rate.

Strong: 3 of 3 – 100.0%
Good: 0 of 0 – 0.0%
Some: 6 of 12 – 50.0%

Since Saturday I started testing the prediction algorithm as a betting tool by betting $5 on every game on the predicted winner. After starting with $100 my current total is $96.96.

Here are the predictions for todays games.

Home Team Road Team Predicted Winner Confidence
NY Rangers Philadelphia Philadelphia Some
Florida Toronto Toronto Some
Ottawa Boston Ottawa Strong
St. Louis Calgary Calgary Some
Minnesota Detroit Detroit Some
Dallas San Jose Dallas Good
Anaheim Los Angeles Los Angeles Some

Philadelphia (+125), Toronto (+105)m and Los Angeles (+120) are all predicted winners that have better than 1:1 odds and would make smart betting picks. Anaheim defeating Los Angeles is a potential upset as the Kings haven’t played great recently losing 3 in a row including a 6-2 defeat to Anaheim on Saturday. But that loss should ensure they player a better game today. And Toronto takes their 8 game losing streak to Florida. The Leafs have played good enough to win both of their last 2 games but haven’t quite been able to get it done. I think tonight is the game that they break the streak. The Rangers-Philadelphia game should be a close game that could go either way so definitely take Philly with the better odds.

Ottawa currently has odds to win of -450 which means on a $5 which means you would win just $1.11 on a win. This is the kind of bet I would probably consider avoiding since the risk/reward is quite slim. Boston is playing much better recently and why I wouldn’t consider them a likely cnadidate to win, I think the chance is there and just worth the $1.11 reward. But I am going to bet on all games so that includes this one too. But because the return is below a minimum allowed by Bowmans I am not allowed to bet $5 on Ottawa. I need to bet $5.20 so that is what I am going to do.


  5 Responses to “NHL Game Predictions – 1/30/2006”

  1.  

    Seems like it may be a good day for upsets. Luongo just declined the Panthers trade offer and if he plays, may be a little distracted. And the Leafs have to know they need to get a win tonight because they’re probably not going to get one traveling to Tampa tomorrow night.

    As for the DAL-SJ game, the Sharks held a players only meeting after their last loss and Coach Wilson is going to be sitting one of their regulars tonight in an effort to shake up the roster a bit. I like their chances to upset too.

    Also double check your Ottawa line this morning. I see them as a big as -400 but in some places cheaper.

  2.  

    I seem to always write something wrong in the comments on this site. I don’t know why.

    That opening line should read that Luongo declined the Panthers latest contract proposal, not trade offer.

  3.  

    McCabe is ready to go, but he’s not going to play in both back-to-back games. If he goes tonight, the Leafs take this one.
    Regards the Flyers play, did you factor in the “no Forsberg” handicap. Also, Kim Johnsson’s probably out.

    GL and thanks for the always-interesting input you give.

  4.  

    No, it doesn’t take into account injuries but since the Flyers have played without Forsberg and Johnsson for parts of this season, their won-loss record will factor in some of this.

  5.  

    Thanks, David, for your input. I am probably going to follow the lines that are posting on this website at http://hockeyanalysis.com/?page_id=110. In fact yesterday, I had Tampa Bay originally, but changed to Washington based on 2 factors. 1) They were playing back-to-back road games and lost Saturday 6-0 to Philly. 2) Washington was the underdog according to betting lines and I felt this was an understatement and that they could’ve been even yesterday.

    For today’s Boston/Ottawa game, I originally had Ottawa, but changed that to Boston based on 2 factors, as well. 1) Boston is a HUGE underdog against Ottawa and I want the imaginary cash badly. 2) Boston has had success against Ottawa this year. The only problem with #2 is that both of Boston’s wins (the last two meetings) have come at home, a luxury Boston doesn’t have this time.

    About St. Louis, I think they have finally realized that their team has gotten worse since, in recent years, have lost good players, such as Chris Osgood, Al MacInnis, Pavol Demitra, and now Mike Sillinger and Doug Weight, all veteran players (MacInnis retired during the lockout). Clearly, they are trying to build a team for the future. I think it is safe to say that their streak of consecutive playoff appearences is gonna come to an end pretty soon.

    NHL Predictions:
    Sharks @ Stars (Stars -170 over Sharks +150)
    Flames @ Blues (Flames -225 over Blues +185)
    Red Wings @ Wild (Red Wings -140 over Wild +120)
    Kings @ “Mighty” Ducks (Ducks -130 over Kings +110)
    Flyers @ Rangers (Rangers -160 over Flyers +140)
    Bruins @ Senators (Bruins +290 over Senators -380)
    Maple Leafs @ Panthers (Panthers -120 over Maple Leafs EVEN)
    (Betting lines available on website http://hockeyanalysis.com/?page_id=110, betting lines as pf 7:35 EST/4:35 PST. Lines change periodically)
    If all goes well, I could make up to $34.38. I am currently at $98.15, so I could get up tp $132.53.

    Overall Records:
    75%: 45-10-5, 79.2%
    60%: 76-46-13, 61.1%
    50%: 54-49-12, 52.2%
    Home: 98-47-17, 65.7%
    Road: 77-58-13, 56.4%
    Overall: 175-105-30, 61.3%

    I think from now on I will use the bets from this website since I am already using it, so I will use it more. Again, according to my betting lines, if Boston does beat Ottawa, I will get, with a $5 bet, $14.50, so I hope I can get that.

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