Jan 292006
 

I realized this morning that I had a small mistake in my prediction algorithm which caused the confidence levels to be reported incorrectly but the predicted winners were correct. Of the games the past 2 days they all should have been listed as ‘some’ confidence except for the Rangers-Pittsburgh and Carolina-Atlanta games which were both strong confidence predictions.

It was a bit of a rough day yesterday with several upsets occuring. Particular surprises were Tampa destroying Philadelphia, Nashville falling to Columbus and Anaheim looking mighty in an easy win over the Kings. The result is after 2 days of using the new algorithm, here are the success rates.

Strong: 2 of 2 – 100.0%
Good: 0 of 0 – 0.0%
Some: 4 of 10 – 40.0%

And yesterday I started making bets at Bowmans (purely for entertainment purposes and to test the prediction algorithm). I’ve started with $100 and will be betting $5 per game according to the predictions. After yesterday’s 10 games in which we went 4 for 10 my total stands at $84.38.

Now on to today’s games.

Home Team Road Team Predicted Winner Confidence
Washington Tampa Bay Washington Some
Chicago Calgary Calgary Strong
Phoenix Edmonton Edmonton Some

The Calgary and Edmonton picks make a lot of sense but the Washington bet is quite interesting. The betting odds are Tampa -155 and Washington +135 so you are getting decent odds but the way Tampa has been playing recently (3 shutouts in 4 games) it seems like a pretty risky pick. But they are playing on back to back days on the road and that is a tough situation to play in so who knows, Washington might pull out a win.


  8 Responses to “NHL Game Predictions – 1/29/2006”

  1.  

    Sorry, but could you please post the exact link to where you found the odds? Until then, I will be scanning around to find my odds. Also, could you tell me the odds you used for yesterday’s and today’s games? I have also changed my odds to something similar to yours. I am also starting with $100 overall and betting $5 per game. With that, I dropped from $100 to $84.95, a loss of $15.05, while using the odds I received from a link on this website. Now, I will post my predictions along with the odds I got off of a link on http://www.bowmanbet.com (not sure if this is where you got your odds from)

    Flames @ Blackhawks (Flames -200 over Blackhawks +170)
    Oilers @ Coyotes (Oilers -145 over Coyotes +125)
    Lightning @ Capitals (Capitals +140 over Lightning -160)

    CGY/CHI @ EDM/PHX are both 75% confidences, while TB/WSH is a 60% confidence

    Current Record:
    75%: 43-10-5, 78.4%
    60%: 75-46-13, 60.8%
    50%: 54-49-12, 52.2%
    Home: 97-47-17, 65.5%
    Road: 75-58-13, 55.8%
    Overall: 172-105-30, 60.9%

    If all goes well today, I think I would be able to earn $12.95, giving be a total net gain of -$2.10, or $97.90 out of $100. Gotta hope for the best.

  2.  

    A great place to find odds from a variety of places is covers.com. And they also have some good matchup stats, including quick links to recent meetings.

    The link below is the direct link to each day’s games.
    http://www.covers.com/scoreboards/hockey-scores-matchups.aspx

  3.  

    Thank you. By any chance, do you have the lines from Saturday’s games? If so, could you please tell me?

  4.  

    There is no set odds. Odds can vary slightly from betting house to betting house and can vary over time depending on how betters bet. i.e. if an abundance of betters bet on Team A, the odds for Team A will drop (lower payoff). The best I can suggest is find one betting house and go with that one. I use Bowmans at http://www.bowmanbet.com/. I am not sure where you can find historic (yesterdays) betting lines.

  5.  

    Alright. I thank you both for your information. I have not decided which one I will use, but I might vary from day to day depending on the lines. I think for today’s games, I will use http://bowmanbet.com, and http://www.covers.com for tomorrow’s games. I will post which site’s bets I use when I post my odds and predictions.

  6.  

    Do you think it would be more accurate if I only used one particular website for my betting lines or do you think it would be better for me to have a diversity of betting lines?

  7.  

    Well, either way, using the odds currently on http://hockeyanalysis.com/?page_id=110, with Washington and Calgary wins, I have gained $9.63 today with $5 bets, and I am currently $5.42 below the $100 I started with prior to yesterday’s games. This is a cool idea to keep track of not only who predicts games more accurately, but to use odds just for fun.

  8.  

    Three for three in todays predictions gets things back on track after a rough day yesterday. I wonder if Bob will drop by today after criticizing the success rate yesterday. I really like it when I get the underdogs (at least what most people would perceive as underdogs) correct like Washington over Tampa.

    Kevin, you can choose whatever website you want to get your betting lines but I would probably stick with the same source just to be consistant.

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