Game Predictions – 1/23/2006

There are 9 games on the schedule today which means a very busy schedule for a Monday. Some good geographic rivalry games too like Philadelphia/Pittsburgh, Ottawa/Toronto, Calgary/Edmonton and Los Angeles/Anaheim plus a very good division rivalry in Detroit/Nashville. It’s too bad we get such a sucky schedule yesterday and then so many good games today. I must say, the schedule has been pretty horrible this year and the NHL really needs to work on it a bit for next season.

I can’t really argue with most of the predictions my algorithm spit out and I can’t see a lot of upsets happening. Maybe Los Angeles/Anaheim could surprise with an Anaheim win but aside from that the predictions seem reasonable and likely.

In the two pick-em games I am going to predict Detroit to win a close game over Nashville, 3-2 and I’ll pick the home team Edmonton to beat Calgary 4-3.

Here are my success rate statistics so far.

Strong: 92 of 127, 72.4%
Good: 134 of 207, 64.7%
Some: 92 of 170, 54.1%
151 games were pick-em games

Home Team Road Team Predicted Winner Confidence
Philadelphia Pittsburgh Philadelphia Strong
Washington Boston Washington Some
Carolina Montreal Carolina Good
Ottawa Toronto Ottawa Good
St. Louis Vancouver Vancouver Good
Nashville Detroit Pick N/A
Dallas Phoenix Dallas Good
Edmonton Calgary Pick N/A
Los Angeles Anaheim Los Angeles Good

This article has 6 Comments

  1. Det – Nash is a make up game. The teams will play a full 60 minutes but the game will begin with the Predators holding a 1-0 lead, the score of the Nov. 21 game before it was halted.

  2. I don’t exactly know why the NHL decided to give Nashville the 1-0 lead AND reset the time clock. Probably because of the situation and the Red Wings bench players kept jumping on the ice and we couldn’t decide when to put the clock back to. I don’t think Detroit can complain about this situation though because of what happened to Jiri Fischer. Nashville having a lead to start the game won’t give an advantage to Nashville because now this game means more to Detroit than just an additional two points in the standings. I feel they are going to go all out and try to win this one for Jiri.

    We have the 6th match-up this year between Toronto and Ottawa, and a specific team named “Ottawa” has been creaming the other in all prior matchups. Toronto could win this game IF THEY WERE THE HOME TEAM, which isn’t the case here. Scotiabank Place in Kanata, Ont. is likely going to be filled with some Senators fans who are going to leave happy.

    Strong: Philadelphia, Vancouver
    Good: Washington, Carolina, Ottawa, Dallas
    Some: DETROIT, Edmonton, Los Angeles

    The only prediction I selected that was a road team was Vancouver. I don’t think you can blame me for not selecting St. Louis unless you can come up with a really compelling argument.

    Running Records:
    Strong: 41-7-5, 82.1%
    Good: 62-38-12, 60.7%
    Some: 43-41-10, 51.1%

    Home Team Selected: 82-36-15, 67.3%
    Road Team Selected: 64-50-12, 55.6%

    Overall Prediction Record: 146-86-27, 61.6%

  3. Mr. Johnson, as a long-time, 15 year old hockey fan from Long Beach, California (suburb of Los Angeles, in Los Angeles county), I have always been a fan of the Los Angeles Kings, and I would appreciate it if you could do an analysis of both the Dallas Stars and the Los Angeles Kings and which team you believe will take the division title.

  4. The Detroit-Nashville thing is just stupid. Either you count the portion of the game that was already played or you don’t. But hey, nobody said the people in the NHL offices were all that smart.

    “We have the 6th match-up this year between Toronto and Ottawa, and a specific team named “Ottawa” has been creaming the other in all prior matchups.”

    Actually, I would like to correct this statement. Ottawa didn’t cream Toronto in all prior matchups. The first two matchups were extremely close with Ottawa winning both in the shootout.

    As for Los Angeles and Dallas I’ll maybe write more on this later (and I’d do more research too) but I think that Dallas is probably the better all round team. They have better and more experienced goaltending (although Garon has been great) and while Los Angeles might have better top line talent Dallas isn’t far behind and has better depth, especially at the forward position. I just think they have a better mix of veterens and youth and offense and defensive minded players.

  5. I was strapped for time, so I just took a guess about Toronto and Ottawa. Also, it is only the 5th time they played each other this year. About the Kings, they do have a normally good team in Manchester, but due to the Kings injuries, they have all been brought up to the NHL level. Prospects like Jeff Giuliano, Tom Kostopoulos, Richard Petiot, Petr Kamko, Matt Ryan, Connor James, Noah Clarke, Mike Weaver, Jeff Tambellini, and Adam Hauser have all played in both LA and Manchester (10 players). Meanwhile, Dallas has had 4 players play in both Dallas and Hamilton (AHL). This is relevent because it shows that Dallas has had more players work on their play in a minor league, while Kings players have flown back and forth from LA, CA and Manchester, NH repetitively, so they haven’t been able to develop as well. As far as head-to-head games, the Kings’ record is 4-1-0, while Dallas is 1-3-1. And with the remaining 3 meetings at STAPLES Center, Los Angeles has the advantage in head-to-head meetings. The thing that is overlooked when you see that the Kings have done better standing-wise against other teams, such as Calgary, Vancouver, and Colorado. That is the fact that the Kings have played the most games of any team in the NHL. Dallas (entering tonight) is 1 point ahead of LA with 3 games in hand. I will be watching this rivalry for the rest of the year and will divulge any information I can acquire about them.

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