Jan 052006
 

Have you ever wondered what happens when little or no logic is used when performing statistical analysis? Well, here is your answer. Some scientists with too much time on their hand studied thousands of NHL, MLB, NFL, NBA and English soccer game results and concluded that because English soccer is more unpredictable than the other sports (i.e. upsets happen more often) that it is thus more entertaining.

Eli Ben-Naim, Sidney Redner and Federico Vazquez at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico decided to look at unpredictability of results – how often a team with a worse record overcomes an apparently superior one – as the best measure of how exciting a league is. “If there are no upsets, then every game is predictable and hence boring,” says Ben-Naim.

Now, if that logic is true then I’ve got a new league that I am going to start up and make a bundle of money on. Now before you read on you must promise that you will not steal my idea. If you can’t agree to that please stop reading now.

Ok, the rules of this new game are simple. Teams will consist of 10 players and they will be matched up with a player from the opposing team. Each game “round” will feature one player from each team rolling a six sided dice and the player rolling the higher number will win that round. The first team to win 100 rounds wins.

I know you all can’t wait to watch this new sport. It should rank extremely high on the entertainment ranking system because it is 100% unpredictable. On any given night, either team has an equal chance of winning. It’s just going to be so awesome. I just can’t wait until we get the whole world hooked on watching people roll dice all night long. I am going to start accepting aplications for expansion franchises now so if you are interested, and have the $1 million expansion fee (a bargain considering how much of a sure thing this new league is) please send your application in now.

  3 Responses to “The need for a bit of logic in statistical analysis”

  1.  

    Your new sport has already been beaten to the punch by all the televised poker :P

    Granted there is skill in poker, but a lot of what winds up being televised is no more than a card-catching contest not far removed from your Dice Rolling League.

    And people are apparently eating it up.

  2.  

    Actually, this league beats poker hands down (no pun intended). Not in popularity but in randomness and lack of strategy.

  3.  

    I don’t really know if I would be interested in watching 20 people roll a dice for so long. Maybe you could make it more interesting if it was like strip-dice rolling or made the players fight every 3 dice rolls. Add some violence into the game.

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