Game Predictions – 12/18/2005

I am a little late with these today but better late than never right? The game to watch today is Colorado at the Rangers. Both teams have some skilled players and it should be a close game. In the pick-em game I’ll pick San Jose to win. They have been playing great since the trade for Thornton and I see that continuing for a while.

Home Team Road Team Predicted Winner Confidence
NY Rangers Colorado NY Rangers Some
Washington Florida Washington Some
Chicago Dallas Dallas Good
Anaheim San Jose Pick N/A

This article has 10 Comments

  1. We have a tremendously thrilling game today between Washington and Florida. No better way to spend a Sunday than watching two of the worst teams face off. The other three games in my opinion are all upset opportunities.

    COL @ NYR (NY Rangers-Good)
    FLA @ WSH (Washington-Some)
    DAL @ CHI (Dallas-Strong)
    Sj @ ANH (San Jose-Some)

    Running Record:
    Strong: 6-0-1, 92.9%
    Good: 7-2-3, 70.8%
    Some: 3-3-0, 50.0%
    Overall: 16-5-4, 72.0%

    Strong: 3-0-0, 100.0%
    Good: 4-0-2, 83.3%
    Some: 1-2-0, 33.3%
    Overall: 8-2-2, 75.0%

  2. Actually, I have watched a few Washington games and they play a reasonably exciting style of game and Ovechkin is definitely worth watching. He, or Lundqvist, would be my rookie of the year choice right now because he gets his goals almost all on his own as there isn’t a lot of other talent on that team. Florida on the other hand, well, there isn’t much to get excited about there.

  3. I found out last night that I will have the pleasure to view next Monday’s game featuring the Los Angeles Kings and the San Jose Sharks December 26 at Staples Center. I will get the opportunity to watch Thornton, who has had 2+ points in his six games with San Jose. I remember when I found out about the trade that Pavol Demitra went to 2nd in the Western Conference in the points because Thornton went from 13th in points in the East to 1st in the West.

  4. Here are my power rankings. I used a very long formula to calculate these numbers, so they should be very accurate. I will try to post these as often as possible, maybe every Wednesday and Saturday. Any comments you have on how I can improve my formula or any disagreements you have with my rankings are acceptable.

    1. Ottawa 131.2
    2. Nashville 117.5
    3. Dallas 115.9
    4. Detroit 113.4
    5. Carolina 112.8
    6. Buffalo 111.8
    7. Philadelphia 111.1
    8. Vancouver 110.2
    9. NY Rangers 109.3
    10. Calgary 107.6
    11. Edmonton 102.5
    12. Montreal 100.5
    13. Los Angeles 98.9
    14. Tampa Bay 96.9
    15. NY Islanders 89.9
    16. Colorado 89.7
    16. Toronto 89.7
    18. San Jose 87.5
    19. New Jersey 84.6
    20. Anaheim 84.5
    20. Phoenix 84.5
    22. Atlanta 77.2
    23. Minnesota 76.9
    24. Chicago 74.1
    25. Boston 69.6
    26. Florida 62.7
    27. Washington 60.1
    28. Pittsburgh 57.2
    29. Columbus 46.1
    30. St. Louis 45.2

  5. I used a very long formula to calculate these numbers, so they should be very accurate.

    I can’t comment on your fomula specifically because I don’t know what you did but in general I will say that complexity doesn’t always mean more accurate. When I was developing my power rankings and game prediction algorithm often when I added more complexity the game prediction success rate dropped.

    Your power rankings do differ a bit from mine but for the most part look reasonably. My top 10 after last nights games are:

    Los Angeles

  6. I just have one question to ask you, Mr. Johnson. How often would you like me to post my power rankings?

  7. Using parts of a formula for most entertaining game (found under Statistical Analysis), I came up with entertainment values for all games yesterday. The following are used to get the value:
    2 Pts for every goal scored
    1 Pt for every shot over 50 (2 Team Total)
    2 Pts for every fighting major in the game
    5 Pts-6 Goal Game
    10 Pts-5 Goal Game
    15 Pts-4 Goal Game
    20 Pts-3 Goal Game
    25 Pts-2 Goal Game
    30 Pts-1 Goal Game
    35 Pts-Overtime Game
    2 Pts-Shutout
    So, here are the entertainment values for Saturday night’s games:

    Montreal @ Minnesota (64)
    Edmonton @ Vancouver (62)
    Colorado @ NY Islanders (60)
    Toronto @ Ottawa (59)
    Pittsburgh @ Buffalo (56)
    Detroit @ Tampa Bay (48)
    Florida @ Atlanta (45)
    Columbus @ Nashville (43)
    Phoenix @ Los Angeles (43)
    Philadelphia @ St. Louis (42)
    Boston @ Calgary (37)
    New Jersey @ Carolina (30)

  8. Interesting. Not very high scores really. Who’d have thought Montreal-Minnesota would score the highest. As for power rankings, it is probably best to post them when I post mine which is Wednesdays.

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