Game Predictions – 12/15/2005

A busy night in the NHL tonight with 9 games on the schedule. Interestingly the home team is the favoured winner in every game except Detroit at Florida and the pick-em game, Vancouver at Philadelphia, which I will predict the road team, Vancouver, will win because of Philadelphia’s injury issues. An upset possibility is Chicago beating Nashville since Nashville will likely still be without top goalie Tomas Vokoun.

But the biggest game of the night is Dallas at Ottawa. This might be the best of the west vs the best of the east. Ottawa still has some injury problems as Spezza and Redden won’t play, but they gain an advantage because Dallas played last night. This should be a fairly close game but because Dallas played last night I think Ottawa should be able to pull out the win in the third period.

Home Team Road Team Predicted Winner Confidence
Philadelphia Vancouver Pick N/A
Carolina Columbus Carolina Strong
Ottawa Dallas Ottawa Good
New Jersey Atlanta New Jersey Good
Florida Detroit Detroit Good
Nashville Chicago Nashville Good
Minnesota Boston Minnesota Some
Edmonton Montreal Edmonton Some
Phoenix Tampa Bay Phoenix Some

This article has 5 Comments

  1. I was just wondering if you could, at the start of each day’s predictions, put a running record of your predictions if you have that information.

  2. I’ve posted summaries every now and again. I should do them more often though. Maybe I’ll try and do them every Monday or something like that. In any event, here are the results from when I started posting the predictions through last night. These are just the computer generated predictions, not my own thoughts. With some added information like injuries or use of backup goalies which the prediction algorithm doesn’t consider you should be able to get slightly better than these results.

    Strong: 65 of 92 for a 70.7% success rate
    Good: 80 of 120 for a 66.7% success rate
    Some: 55 of 95 for a 57.9% success rate
    89 games too close to call.

    Overall I am satisfied with the results althoguh when I get an opportunity I am going to try to make a few tweaks to the formula and try and squeeze a bit more success out of it. I’d like to see the ‘Some’ predictions to 60% or higher success rate.

  3. Cool. Starting with today’s games, I myself am trying to predict the outcome of the day’s games. Through the first seven games today to be concluded (excluding MTL @ EDM and TB @ PHX), my outcomes are as such:

    Strong: 1-0-1, 75%
    Good: 2-1-1, 63%
    Some: 1-0-0, 100%
    Overall: 4-1-2, 71%

    I selected MTL (Some) and PHX (Good) to win. As of right now, MTL is up 3-2 at 2nd intermission and PHX is losing 2-0 also at 2nd intermission.

    I wasn’t sure if, for your success rates, if you included games where your selection lost in overtime. I think it might be cool if I compared my selections to you if you don’t mind. (It doesn’t have to be posted)

  4. Cool. Feel free to post you predictions daily here. It might be interesting for others to see a different opinion and who knows, others might join in as well.

  5. Thank you. Here are my predictions for today’s games and the results:

    VAN @ PHI (Vancouver-Good) 5-4 Vancouver (W)
    CLB @ CAR (Carolina-Strong) 2-1 Carolina (W)
    DAL @ OTT (Dallas-Some) 2-0 Dallas (W)
    ATL @ NJ (New Jersey-Good) 3-2 (OT) Atlanta (OTL)
    DET @ FLA (Detroit-Strong) 3-2 (OT) Florida (OTL)
    CHI @ NSH (Nashville-Good) 5-3 Nashville (W)
    BOS @ MIN (Minnesota-Good) 3-2 Boston (L)
    MTL @ EDM (Montreal-Some) 5-3 Edmonton (L)
    TB @ PHX (Phoenix-Good) 3-1 Tampa Bay(L)

    Strong: 1-0-1, 75.0%
    Good: 2-2-1, 50.0%
    Some: 1-1-0, 50.0%
    *Please note that my records include OT losses.

    From now on, when I post my predictions, I will include a running total of my success rate. One thing I have to complain about is “How in the world did Detroit NOT beat Florida?” I guess it is the same as how did Los Angeles lose to Washington last night. Being a Kings fan in the LA area, I watched that game and still can’t believe it. However, that game was filled with powerplays, and all 5 goals were scored on uneven strength. In the New NHL, which ever team has the best powerplay and penalty kill will likely win.

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